The Grossman Guide | For Political Generalists

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The Grossman Guide For Political Generalists Subscribe to RSS October 31, 2020 in Uncategorized Leave a comment Ready for ElectionDay

The edits are done, and the Guide is in its final form for 2020. Click the links on the right for a printable election scorecard.

The latest changes favored the Democrats by a moderate margin. This is largely due to the momentum in the presidential race, as fewer voters split tickets than they have in the past. The presidential outcome in a particular state and district can greatly affect the outcomes down-ballot.

If my predictions hold, the Democrats will hold united government for the first time since 2010, increasing their margin in the house and retaking the senate. I predict a Biden victory with a 130-point electoral college margin.

I will write a postmortem in the weeks following the election, though I expect many house and senate races to be undecided at that time (in Georgia and Louisianas case, for quite some time).

If you havent already done so- as a staggering number of people have- please vote on Election Day. I hope you find this guide a useful tool for your election night scorekeeping.

Share this:PrintEmailFacebookLinkedInRedditTwitterTumblrPinterestLike this:Like Loading... September 27, 2020 in Uncategorized Leave a comment 2020 Guide Launch!

Hello fellow politicos, and welcome to this cycle of my biennial guide for political generalists.  On the right, you will find links to the guide, which contains information and predictions for the elections for the presidency, the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the nations governorships.   The guide is designed to be printed and serve as a scorecard on election night, as the information is organized by poll closing times, with the races expected to be closest in bold.

If you prefer to use the guide digitally, you can make a copy, but I recommend waiting until the weekend before the election, as I will continue to update the information through then.

Much has been written about this unique election cycle, and how we may not have information on election night.  Much remains to be seen; we are living through unprecedented times.

Over the next few weeks, I will update the predictions and eliminate any races currently listed as tossups, with a goal of having a firm prediction on each race going into the weekend before election day.  I hope you find this guide useful; since 2004 I have been creating this as a resource for myself and anyone else who wants to have it.  So, feel free to share.

Share this:PrintEmailFacebookLinkedInRedditTwitterTumblrPinterestLike this:Like Loading... November 4, 2018 in Uncategorized Leave a comment Final 2018 UpdatesLive!

The final pre-election changes have been made to the Guide, and as promised, all toss-up races now have predictions.

If my predictions hold, here are the top lines:

Republicans will continue to control the Senate, though their margin will shrink to 51-49.

Republican control of the nations governorships will shrink substantially, but they will maintain a slight edge, 26-24.

Democrats will take the House by a substantial margin, 233-202.

The number of women elected will be historic, and some of the upsets I predict will come from women.  This applies to Republicans as well as Democrats.

Now, the only thing left to do is vote, print the bracket, and follow along on Tuesday night.  I hope you find this Guide a helpful tool for your election night analysis.

Share this:PrintEmailFacebookLinkedInRedditTwitterTumblrPinterestLike this:Like Loading... September 22, 2018 in Uncategorized Leave a comment 2018 Beta GuideRelease

Hello, fellow political generalists!  I am pleased to report that the beta version of the 2018 Grossman Guide has been released: just click the handy links on the right-

Since 2004, I have been publishing scorecards for election night, covering every race of national importance: the Senate races, the House races, the gubernatorial races, and when applicable, the presidential race.  The guide is printable, and gives some guidance on how each race is expected to pan out.

The first thing you may notice about this years guide is the prevalence of toss-up races.  A few days prior to the election, I intend to remove these, and make a prediction one way or another.  The most competitive races will remain in bold, so that you can keep track of the races that truly matter.

In this off-year election, many prognosticators expect a Democratic wave.  While initial indications seem to point in that direction, I feel it is premature.  In the era of the short news cycle, many things can happen in six weeks to dramatically alter the political landscape.

What we do know, however, is that an unprecedented number of women are seeking office, likely due to a confluence of the Trump presidency and the #metoo movement.  It is a safe prediction at this point to say that the next congress will boast more women than any that came before.

As things stand now, Democrats appear poised to re-take the House, while Republicans are expected to retain control of the Senate.  The nations governorships will  remain largely unchanged- perhaps a seat in one direction or the other- with Republicans maintaining a clear majority.

If you like the guide, share it!  Its a labor of love, and I enjoy seeing it get passed around the interwebs every even-numbered year.

Share this:PrintEmailFacebookLinkedInRedditTwitterTumblrPinterestLike this:Like Loading... February 10, 2017 in Uncategorized Leave a comment 2016 Post-Mortem

Like most predictions, the Grossman Guides got the macros wrong this cycle: the Republican Party held the Senate and won the White House, unifying the national political branches.

Though the Guides overall accuracy of 96% may look impressive, the devil is in the details: only 85% of senate races were predicted correctly, and an abysmal 75% of gubernatorial races, due in large part to the relatively small sample size of only 12 governorships at stake.  Presidential results were predicted with 91% accuracy, a low number for the Guide, while House races kept to their typical standard, with 98% accuracy in predictions.

It is worth noting that even in a cycle where the polling data was off, and most prognosticators- me included- had bad cycles, the percentage of correct predictions is strikingly high.  That phenomenon is based in the House of Representatives, which comprises the majority of all races, and where turnover between the parties is remarkably low.  The absence of truly competitive seats provides political generalists with a comfortable cushion, as there are hundreds of seats whose outcome is certain before the campaign season even begins.

During the off-season, I will study my own mistakes to try to provide more accurate predictions going forward.  Mea culpa to those of you who contacted me during the final weeks, and even on election night, for reassurance about particular races whose outcome I wrongly but confidently predicted.  As Sandra Day OConnor once wrote, sometimes in error, but never in doubt.  I will work hard to ensure that next cycles Guide returns to a higher degree of accuracy and reliability.

~AG

Share this:PrintEmailFacebookLinkedInRedditTwitterTumblrPinterestLike this:Like Loading... November 3, 2016 in Uncategorized Leave a comment Last revisions, probably

After looking at some updated polling data, I updated the guide with new information this afternoon.  I have been resisting the urge to make revisions during the Democratic surge, then during the Republican resurgence, and frankly Im glad for that decision.

It looks like the races are not markedly different than they were six weeks ago, with a few notable exceptions.

Many generalists are looking at recent polling, trying to extrapolate information from trends and aggregation data.  That information is useful, but there are two factors that arent being given their proper weight, in my opinion: the ground organization of the parties/campaigns, and the actual votes.

Ground game is obvious: this is a polarized election, and turnout cannot be overstated as a factor in the outcomes.  What continues to baffle me, however, is how most prognosticators, including my heroes over at five thirty eight, are not adjusting their data to put proper weight and focus on the votes that have already been cast, both through early voting and by absentee.

Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina provide the most salient examples.  Early turnout in Nevada is surprisingly high, particularly in Clark County.  Thats blue territory, and impacts my predictions for both the presidential race, and the senate contest.

Florida has also experienced high turnout among the Hispanic population, and the Clinton ground organization is reportedly firing on all cylinders.  I expect this will add 2-3 points to her beyond that reflected in polling data, and should be enough to carry the state.  It will probably not be enough, however, help Patrick Murphy defeat Senator Marco Rubio.

Similarly, the numbers out of North Carolina are important, but for the opposite reason.  Turnout is down among early voters, in part due to more restrictive voting laws.  There have been fewer opportunities to early vote.  I believe this means the polls are skewing slightly Democratic over how the actual results will pan out, but those races have enough of a margin that it doesnt affect the outcomesyet.  This is the one race I may revisit over the weekend, if the Sunday turnout is lower than expected, particularly in heavily minority precincts.

Barring a change, however, the Guide is likely in its final form.  Please share, print, and enjoy.

Share this:PrintEmailFacebookLinkedInRedditTwitterTumblrPinterestLike this:Like Loading... September 22, 2016 in Election Guide 2016, Uncategorized Leave a comment The 2016 Grossman Guide isLive!

Welcome to the seventh edition of the Grossman Guide for Political Generalists!

Since 2004, I have been creating the Guide every two years as a useful election-day tool for my fellow political wonks.  Over the years, the focus of the guide has changed, but its core goal remains the same: to provide a useful scorecard and resource for election day.

When I first started making this guide, the resources for finding polling data and races of interest was very sparse.  It existed, but wasnt easy to find, and it was spread all over the internet.  That problem has diminished somewhat over time, with the proliferation of sites like fivethirtyeight.com.

The purpose of this Guide is not to replace or replicate the great work being done by polling aggregate sites. Instead, it is intended to organize information which, while available elsewhere, is not particularly easy-to-find or centrally located.

The Guide presents every national race in the country, organized by poll closing times, and listing the party currently controlling the seat, the names of the candidates, and my prediction for the outcome.  Those predictions are based on aggregating information from the Cook Political Report, Congressional Quarterly, Sabatos Crystal Ball, Fivethirtyeight, Daily Kos Elections, Rothenberg Political Report, and polling conducted by major news outlets and universities.

The Guide will be updated periodically in the weeks ahead, and I may add non-partisan analysis when warranted.  This is intended as a neutral resource; I endeavor to keep my own political views out of this site.

One legacy quirk in my system, which I am choosing to retain, is that I eliminate all tossup predictions during the weekend before the election.  If you print the guide on Monday or Tuesday of election week, each race will have a predicted outcome, representing my best guess at how the results will pan out.  Last cycle, the Guide was accurate 96% of the time.

Feel free to use the Guide however you see fit.  Links are on the right, in the toolbar, and the Guide should be printer-friendly on most platforms.  This is a labor of love; I hope you enjoy it.

Share this:PrintEmailFacebookLinkedInRedditTwitterTumblrPinterestLike this:Like Loading... December 2, 2014 in Uncategorized Leave a comment Post Mortem 2014

It has been one month since Election Day, and while there are still a handful of races undetermined, I think its time to call this generalist summary of the cycle.

The macro trends closely matched our expectations.  Republicans widened their lead in the House, and retook the Senate.  Democrats made some headway in gubernatorial races, and the nations governorships are now closer to evenly divided than before the election.

In the US Senate, all races have been called with one exception: Mary Landrieus Louisiana seat will be decided in a runoff.  For that reason, I factored it out of my results.  The GGPG predictions were 94% correct in the Senate, with both misses coming in close races in which I predicted a Democratic win, but the seat went Republican.

In the US House, three races are either in runoffs or recounts, and they have been factored out.  The GGPG predictions were 97% accurate in predicting the outcome, with 80% of the 15 misses predicting Democratic wins in races ultimately won by Republican candidates.

In the gubernatorial races, all seats have been decided, and my results were 89% accurate.  All four misses favored Democratic candidates in seats won by Republicans.

The overall accuracy of the 2014 GGPG was 96%.

As I wrote after last cycle, accuracy is my foremost goal, but if I am going to miss races, I would greatly prefer that they be evenly divided between the parties.  This cycle, they clearly were not.  The Republican trend in this cycle was more pronounced than predicted, and the results reflect this.

Overall, I characterize this as a successful cycle for the Guide, and I look forward to the more involved process of making predictions in 2016, when presidential politics will be added to the mix.

I will leave the site up at least through the end of the year, and then it will go dark until I begin the 2016 guide, circa Summer 2016.

Thanks for reading,

~Andrew

Share this:PrintEmailFacebookLinkedInRedditTwitterTumblrPinterestLike this:Like Loading... November 3, 2014 in Uncategorized Leave a comment Election Day!

The polls will be open across America in less than twelve hours, and the final edition of the Guide is complete!

The few formatting errors have been corrected- thanks to the few of you who pointed them out to me.

My prediction is that the Republicans will hold the House and increase their margin to 236/199.  Republicans will retake the Senate, holding it by a margin of 51/49, and will lose governorships, but maintain their advantage by a margin of 27/23.

Democrats can take solace in the reality that, however unfavorable this year is for them in the Senate, next cycle looks far worse for Republicans.  It is highly likely that Republicans will maintain the majority in that chamber for only two years.

My race to watch this cycle is the Kansas Senate race between incumbent Pat Roberts and independent Greg Orman, who is likely, but not certain, to caucus with Democrats should he win.  This may well be the closest contest; it is certainly the hardest to predict.  I believe Roberts will retain the seat by a narrow margin.

Thank you to everyone who reads this guide.  Since 2004, I have been creating it as a scorecard for Election Day.  It is a labor of love, and far easier to create and maintain these days, since I switched it to a WordPress format.  If you have questions or comments, or just want to say hello, feel free to send me a message.

I will post results approximately one week from now; I expect most races outside of Louisiana will be called by that time, certainly enough to give a fair idea of whether the macro predictions held.  The site will go dark at the end of November, but will be revived in time for Election 2016.

Share this:PrintEmailFacebookLinkedInRedditTwitterTumblrPinterestLike this:Like Loading... October 28, 2014 in Uncategorized Leave a comment One Week Out

As we approach the home stretch of the 2014 campaign, I have made some updates and have made predictions on all toss-up races.  The updated numbers have had only a slight impact on the bottom line- since my last update, Democrats have gained one House seat, but still stand to lose control of the Senate.

A few trends have emerged this cycle.  First, the Senate and governorships have been more competitive than expected.  That is in sharp contrast to the House, where as per typical the great majority of seats are entirely safe.  Some states experience this trend more than others.  In Texas, California, and New York, there are very few competitive seats despite very large populations.  Some smaller states, such as Iowa and New Hampshire, are consistently more competitive.  This is likely because the larger a state population grows, the easier it is to gerrymander the districts in such a way as to protect incumbent legislators.

As always, the guide is organized by poll closing times, and is designed to be a scorecard for election day.  Dont forget to vote on Tuesday, November 4.

Share this:PrintEmailFacebookLinkedInRedditTwitterTumblrPinterestLike this:Like Loading... Older Posts The GuidePresidential RaceSenate RacesHouse RacesGubernatorial Races Recent Posts Ready for ElectionDay 2020 Guide Launch! Final 2018 UpdatesLive! 2018 Beta GuideRelease 2016 Post-Mortem Last revisions, probably The 2016 Grossman Guide isLive! Post Mortem 2014 Election Day! One Week Out

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