With the election just days away, I have completed this cycle’s election night guide. Click on the links to access printable scorecards for the House, Senate, and Gubernatorial election contests, organized by poll closing time.

The ratings are created by reviewing about a dozen polling and analysis sites, and trying to reach a consensus prediction. I do not leave any races as pure toss-ups going into Election Day; for each, I have chosen a predicted winner, but boldface font indicates which races are expected to be the tightest.

If these predictions hold, the Republicans will take control of the House of Representatives with a seven seat majority, while the balance of power in the Senate and governorships will remain unchanged.

If you enjoy the guide, please let me know! It is a labor of love I have been compiling every two years since 2004.

Please don’t forget to vote, and enjoy your election night. I will draft a post-mortem approximately one month after election day, when the results are known and the predictions can be analyzed.

~AG

Friends, that magical time is upon us again, and with the 2022 election just weeks away, I am pleased to share with you the initial release of my biennial election scorecard.

On the right menu, you will see links to printable scorecards listing each national race, the candidates, a prediction for the outcome, and a space to record the results as they are announced.

I still have some housekeeping to do in summarizing the US House results, but the trend lines are clear: the US House is likely to shift to Republican control, while the US Senate and gubernatorial results are likely to have no impact on the partisan breakdown of that chamber or those offices.

Of course, with the Senate split 50/50, any change could affect control, but my current prediction is a return to an evenly-divided chamber.

Over the coming weeks, I will update the predictions, complete my summaries, and remove toss-ups until each race has a clear predicted winner. I will post shortly before the election when the guide is finalized for this year.

As always, thank you for your attention, and I hope this guide is useful if, like me, you watch election results on the edge of your seat.

-AG

The edits are done, and the Guide is in its final form for 2020. Click the links on the right for a printable election scorecard.

The latest changes favored the Democrats by a moderate margin. This is largely due to the momentum in the presidential race, as fewer voters split tickets than they have in the past. The presidential outcome in a particular state and district can greatly affect the outcomes down-ballot.

If my predictions hold, the Democrats will hold united government for the first time since 2010, increasing their margin in the house and retaking the senate. I predict a Biden victory with a 130-point electoral college margin.

I will write a postmortem in the weeks following the election, though I expect many house and senate races to be undecided at that time (in Georgia and Louisiana’s case, for quite some time).

If you haven’t already done so- as a staggering number of people have- please vote on Election Day. I hope you find this guide a useful tool for your election night scorekeeping.

Hello fellow politicos, and welcome to this cycle of my biennial guide for political generalists.  On the right, you will find links to the guide, which contains information and predictions for the elections for the presidency, the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the nation’s governorships.   The guide is designed to be printed and serve as a scorecard on election night, as the information is organized by poll closing times, with the races expected to be closest in bold.

If you prefer to use the guide digitally, you can make a copy, but I recommend waiting until the weekend before the election, as I will continue to update the information through then.

Much has been written about this unique election cycle, and how we may not have information on election night.  Much remains to be seen; we are living through unprecedented times.

Over the next few weeks, I will update the predictions and eliminate any races currently listed as tossups, with a goal of having a firm prediction on each race going into the weekend before election day.  I hope you find this guide useful; since 2004 I have been creating this as a resource for myself and anyone else who wants to have it.  So, feel free to share.

The final pre-election changes have been made to the Guide, and as promised, all toss-up races now have predictions.

If my predictions hold, here are the top lines:

Republicans will continue to control the Senate, though their margin will shrink to 51-49.

Republican control of the nation’s governorships will shrink substantially, but they will maintain a slight edge, 26-24.

Democrats will take the House by a substantial margin, 233-202.

The number of women elected will be historic, and some of the upsets I predict will come from women.  This applies to Republicans as well as Democrats.

Now, the only thing left to do is vote, print the bracket, and follow along on Tuesday night.  I hope you find this Guide a helpful tool for your election night analysis.

Hello, fellow political generalists!  I am pleased to report that the beta version of the 2018 Grossman Guide has been released: just click the handy links on the right—->

Since 2004, I have been publishing scorecards for election night, covering every race of national importance: the Senate races, the House races, the gubernatorial races, and when applicable, the presidential race.  The guide is printable, and gives some guidance on how each race is expected to pan out.

The first thing you may notice about this year’s guide is the prevalence of toss-up races.  A few days prior to the election, I intend to remove these, and make a prediction one way or another.  The most competitive races will remain in bold, so that you can keep track of the races that truly matter.

In this off-year election, many prognosticators expect a Democratic wave.  While initial indications seem to point in that direction, I feel it is premature.  In the era of the short news cycle, many things can happen in six weeks to dramatically alter the political landscape.

What we do know, however, is that an unprecedented number of women are seeking office, likely due to a confluence of the Trump presidency and the #metoo movement.  It is a safe prediction at this point to say that the next congress will boast more women than any that came before.

As things stand now, Democrats appear poised to re-take the House, while Republicans are expected to retain control of the Senate.  The nation’s governorships will  remain largely unchanged- perhaps a seat in one direction or the other- with Republicans maintaining a clear majority.

If you like the guide, share it!  It’s a labor of love, and I enjoy seeing it get passed around the interwebs every even-numbered year.

Like most predictions, the Grossman Guide’s got the macros wrong this cycle: the Republican Party held the Senate and won the White House, unifying the national political branches.

Though the Guide’s overall accuracy of 96% may look impressive, the devil is in the details: only 85% of senate races were predicted correctly, and an abysmal 75% of gubernatorial races, due in large part to the relatively small sample size of only 12 governorships at stake.  Presidential results were predicted with 91% accuracy, a low number for the Guide, while House races kept to their typical standard, with 98% accuracy in predictions.

It is worth noting that even in a cycle where the polling data was off, and most prognosticators- me included- had bad cycles, the percentage of correct predictions is strikingly high.  That phenomenon is based in the House of Representatives, which comprises the majority of all races, and where turnover between the parties is remarkably low.  The absence of truly competitive seats provides political generalists with a comfortable cushion, as there are hundreds of seats whose outcome is certain before the campaign season even begins.

During the off-season, I will study my own mistakes to try to provide more accurate predictions going forward.  Mea culpa to those of you who contacted me during the final weeks, and even on election night, for reassurance about particular races whose outcome I wrongly but confidently predicted.  As Sandra Day O’Connor once wrote, sometimes in error, but never in doubt.  I will work hard to ensure that next cycle’s Guide returns to a higher degree of accuracy and reliability.

~AG

After looking at some updated polling data, I updated the guide with new information this afternoon.  I have been resisting the urge to make revisions during the Democratic surge, then during the Republican resurgence, and frankly I’m glad for that decision.

It looks like the races are not markedly different than they were six weeks ago, with a few notable exceptions.

Many generalists are looking at recent polling, trying to extrapolate information from trends and aggregation data.  That information is useful, but there are two factors that aren’t being given their proper weight, in my opinion: the ground organization of the parties/campaigns, and the actual votes.

Ground game is obvious: this is a polarized election, and turnout cannot be overstated as a factor in the outcomes.  What continues to baffle me, however, is how most prognosticators, including my heroes over at five thirty eight, are not adjusting their data to put proper weight and focus on the votes that have already been cast, both through early voting and by absentee.

Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina provide the most salient examples.  Early turnout in Nevada is surprisingly high, particularly in Clark County.  That’s blue territory, and impacts my predictions for both the presidential race, and the senate contest.

Florida has also experienced high turnout among the Hispanic population, and the Clinton ground organization is reportedly firing on all cylinders.  I expect this will add 2-3 points to her beyond that reflected in polling data, and should be enough to carry the state.  It will probably not be enough, however, help Patrick Murphy defeat Senator Marco Rubio.

Similarly, the numbers out of North Carolina are important, but for the opposite reason.  Turnout is down among early voters, in part due to more restrictive voting laws.  There have been fewer opportunities to early vote.  I believe this means the polls are skewing slightly Democratic over how the actual results will pan out, but those races have enough of a margin that it doesn’t affect the outcomes…yet.  This is the one race I may revisit over the weekend, if the Sunday turnout is lower than expected, particularly in heavily minority precincts.

Barring a change, however, the Guide is likely in its final form.  Please share, print, and enjoy.