2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season | | Alberto | Beryl | Chris | Debby | Ernesto | Francine | Gordon | Helene | Isaac | Joyce | Kirk | Leslie | Milton | Nadine | Oscar | Patty | Rafael | Sara | Tony | Valerie | William | |
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Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30
GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (07:50 UTC, 15 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)
Thursday, May 23, 2024 10:39AM PDT - Another 'above-normal' forecast
- NOAA just issued their forecast for the season. They say that there is an 85% of an above-normal activity season with 17-25 tropical storms, of which 8-13 hurricanes and 4-7 major hurricanes (14.4, 7.2 and 3.2 is normal, resp.). They blame the near-record warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and the likely development of La Nina which enhances storm formation due to reduced wind shear. Apart from La Nina, 'near-record' temperatures will become more normal due to human induced climate change, so it does not bode well for the future... You can read more about the record heat in Michael Lowry's post on Eye on the Storm/Yale Climate Connections. Regardless, chances are still quite low that your island will get hit, but they are increasing. See the table in my previous post.
In NOAA's news release they also talk about some improved communications (for example, all advisories will now be in Spanish as well, not just the Public Advisory, also tropical storm watches and warnings can now be issued any time instead of in a regular advisory). They also mention new tools and system upgrades. Hope it all helps since the main key to minimize losses is being well prepared.
Lastly, there is a little disturbance northwest of Haiti. It is moving to the east. Although it is not expected to develop into something, heavy rains are still expected over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Stay safe everybody, and start some preparations now! Hurricane seasan is just over a week away... -Gert
Monday, April 8, 2024 10:18AM PDT - Another 'hyper-active' forecast
- Tropical Storm Risk, recently absorbed by EuroTempest, a European storm and weather risk management services to the (re)insurance market, has issued their forecast for the upcoming season. It is exactly the same in number of storms as the one by Klotzbach et al's (see earlier post). They also call for a 'hyper-active' season with 23 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes.
They say: "The reason why the TSR extended forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane activity calls for a hyper-active season is our expectation that the warm sea surface temperature anomalies currently present in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) and Caribbean Sea will persist through August-September 2024, and a moderate strength La Nina event will develop through spring/early summer and persist through summer and autumn.". Indeed, high water temperatures and La Nina conditions means bad news for us. Read the full report here.
Another 'hint' to start preparing now! In reality there is still a relatively small chance that a 'big one' will end up on your doorstep (see the table in my earlier post), so don't get too worked up about these forecasts. But you will feel better if you are well prepared. This might be a good year to invest in those hurricane shutters, if you don't have them already... -Gert
Thursday, April 4, 2024 10:15AM PDT - Extremely Active Hurricane Season forecasted...
- Today Klotzbach and his team at Colorado State University issued there well respected forecast for the upcoming season. And it is not looking good... This may come as no surprise, since last year we had the battle between El Nino, which decreases hurricane activity, and warm sea surface waters, which increases hurricane activity. El Nino lost... This year we won't have an El Nino, but La Nina conditions, which normally enhances hurricane activity, plus the record warm sea surface temperatures are still here!
The forecast calls for 23 (!) named stormes (14.4 is normal), of which 11 are expected to reach hurricane strength (7.2 is normal) and 5 reach major hurricanes status (3.2 is normal). This is the highest number of storms ever forecasted by Colorado State in April...
The major drivers are La Nina and high sea surface temperatures. Although we are still in an El Nino, it is expected to fade in the next few weeks, and transform to La Nina conditions at the peak of hurricane season. During a La Nina vertical wind shear is lower in the Atlantic, making it easier for tropical storms to develop and become stronger. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are currently at record levels, see for example the last plot on the my satellite imagery page (yellow/orange means above normal, it looks like 1-2° Celcius or more above normal!). And it is expected to stay above normal, giving more fuel to hurricanes...
Normally the April forecast doesn't have much skill, but this year they are more confident that there will indeed be an active season. It is hard to argue otherwise, with record sea surface temperatures and an La Nino, two of the main drivers in hurricane activity...
What does it mean for the Caribbean... For the Caribbean region the probability of at least one major hurricane tracking through the region (a big area) is 66% (normal is 47%, last year it was 49%). In the table below I summarized the chance of a major hurricane moving within 50 miles of a specific Caribbean island/country compared to the long term average (1880-2020) (source: https://tropical.colostate.edu/TC_impact.html). Note that some of the numbers are biased by area, for example The Bahamas. In any case, just one big storm in your backyard is more than enough. It seems that this is the season that you invest in some good hurricane protection.... Preparation will be key this season.
A good writeup can also be found on Jeff Masters' Eye on the Storm blog at Yale Climate Connections. It does not really make you happy reading it... -Gert
| Probability of a major hurricane traveling within 50 miles |
... Older discussions >>
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Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC): |
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NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&&
Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which
will run until November 30. The long-term averages for the number
of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 14, 7, and 3,
respectively.
The list of names for 2024 is as follows:
Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Alberto al-BAIR-toe Beryl BEHR-ril
Chris kris Debby DEH-bee
Ernesto er-NES-toh Francine fran-SEEN
Gordon GOR-duhn Helene heh-LEEN
Isaac EYE-zik Joyce joyss
Kirk kurk Leslie LEHZ-lee
Milton MIL-ton Nadine nay-DEEN=20=20=20=20
Oscar AHS-kur Patty PAT-ee
Rafael Rah-fah-EL Sara SAIR-uh
Tony TOH-nee Valerie VAH-lur-ee
William Will-yum
A full list of Atlantic basin tropical cyclone names and
pronunciations can be found at:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/aboutnames_pronounc=
e_atlc.pdf__;!!DZ3fjg!_l2ZpBHGQ8SjappGjUzhL9My1MFojzvP3bi9bG1pVZEE6iqZIa02c=
rTnXEikmu_x-AxKrn9DSSV6oJQxPbUPPv-DNdo$
This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days. The
issuance times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT.=20
After the change to standard time in November, the issuance times
are 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.
A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.
A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone
public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and
a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all
ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package
may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected
changes or to modify watches or warnings.
NHC has the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for
disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose
the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to
land areas within 48 hours. For these land-threatening "potential
tropical cyclones", NHC will issue the full suite of advisory and
watch/warning products. Potential tropical cyclones share the
naming conventions currently in place for tropical depressions,
being numbered from a single list (e.g., "One", "Two", "Three",
etc.).
The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone, to post or cancel
watches or warnings, or to provide hourly position updates between
intermediate advisories when the storm center is easily followed by
radar. It is used in lieu of or to precede the issuance of a
special advisory package. Tropical Cyclone Updates, which can be
issued at any time, can be found under WMO header WTNT61-65 KNHC,
and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5.
All NHC text and graphical products are available on the web at
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_l2ZpBHGQ=
8SjappGjUzhL9My1MFojzvP3bi9bG1pVZEE6iqZIa02crTnXEikmu_x-AxKrn9DSSV6oJQxPbUP=
qgAGfTY$ . More information on NHC text and
graphical products can be found at
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Product_Descri=
ption.pdf__;!!DZ3fjg!_l2ZpBHGQ8SjappGjUzhL9My1MFojzvP3bi9bG1pVZEE6iqZIa02cr=
TnXEikmu_x-AxKrn9DSSV6oJQxPbUPDH2FHHs$ . New and
updated products for the 2024 season can be found at
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Updates_2024.p=
df__;!!DZ3fjg!_l2ZpBHGQ8SjappGjUzhL9My1MFojzvP3bi9bG1pVZEE6iqZIa02crTnXEikm=
u_x-AxKrn9DSSV6oJQxPbUPepgqLTw$ .
In 2024, NHC will expand its offering of Spanish language text
products to include all Public Advisories, the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion, the Tropical Cyclone Update, and Key Messages for the
Atlantic basin. These products will use AI techniques tested in
2023. Links to Spanish-language advisory products will be available
on hurricanes.gov. Information on headers for Spanish language
products can be found in the 2024 new and updated products for the
2024 season at document
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Updates_2024.p=
df__;!!DZ3fjg!_l2ZpBHGQ8SjappGjUzhL9My1MFojzvP3bi9bG1pVZEE6iqZIa02crTnXEikm=
u_x-AxKrn9DSSV6oJQxPbUPepgqLTw$
You can also interact with NHC on Facebook at
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC__;!!DZ3fjg!_l2Z=
pBHGQ8SjappGjUzhL9My1MFojzvP3bi9bG1pVZEE6iqZIa02crTnXEikmu_x-AxKrn9DSSV6oJQ=
xPbUPxHbYqn8$ . Notifications are available via
X when select National Hurricane Center products are issued.=20
Information about our Atlantic X feed (@NHC_Atlantic) is
available at https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter=
.php__;!!DZ3fjg!_l2ZpBHGQ8SjappGjUzhL9My1MFojzvP3bi9bG1pVZEE6iqZIa02crTnXEi=
kmu_x-AxKrn9DSSV6oJQxPbUPeZxjVqk$ .
$$
Forecaster Beven
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More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image |
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Latest local updates from the special hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Thomas [May 28 8:04]
- St.Lucia [May 26 8:58]
- Barbados [May 23 19:25]
- Trinidad & Tobago [May 23 17:41]
- Nevis [May 22 9:38]
- Bermuda [May 19 6:24]
- Puerto Rico [May 14 21:09]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [May 8 13:42]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [May 8 5:59]
Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.
Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- weathernerds.org (ensembles)
- CIMSS/U.Wisc-Mad
- Brammer/UAlbany
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- Jeff Masters Blog
- Brian McNoldy Blog
- Michael Lowry's Blog
- zoom.earth hurricane tracker
- more...
Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide
Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x
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