Caribbean Hurricane Network - stormCARIB.com - Local Reports on Tropical Systems threatening the Car

Time 2020-07-09 18:03:39

Web Name: Caribbean Hurricane Network - stormCARIB.com - Local Reports on Tropical Systems threatening the Car

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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season| Arthur | Bertha | Cristobal | Dolly | Edouard | Fay | Gonzalo | Hanna | Isaias | Josephine | Kyle | Laura | Marco | Nana | Omar | Paulette | Rene | Sally | Teddy | Vicky | Wilfred |Active Tropical Systems: None!Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30Monday, July 6, 2020 08:59AM PDT - EdouardLast night Tropical Depression Five was upgraded to Tropical Storm Edouard. It is currently well south of Newfoundland, yes, quite up north indeed. The storm is moving fast over the open Atlantic, and is no threat to land. It might cause some unsettling weather in Ireland or the UK later.There are two other areas of interest, one near Florida (Gulf side) which we don't have to worry about in the Caribbean, however, it may reappear over water on the 'other side' in the Atlantic and become something. We also have a tropical wave approaching the islands down south. Although currently not forecast to develop into a depression or worth, it will bring some high winds and heavy downpours when it approaches Barbados and the islands beyond. See the satellite image above for its current location. -GertGood morning and Happy July 4th America!A happy 4th it will be weatherwise for the east coast of America as well concerning Invest 97L but maybe not so much for Bermuda. Trekking ENE about 15 mph, 97L has about a 60% chance of development into a depression at least, with early model guidance suggesting a peak mid tropical storm of 55-60 mph in about 3 days.The next name on the list will be Edouard in an already early active Atlantic season. Bermuda should start receiving impacts of thunderstorms, high surf, gusty winds, and rip currents tomorrow evening while east coast impacts will be minimal in the way of higher surf and increased rip currents. Then, he will move off to visit Europe to help cool off their heat wave.The eastern Pacific has picked up as it usually does before the Atlantic and there are several potential areas to watch but none appear to be a threat land wise at the moment. A note in the far Western Pacific not really tropical even for Japan but deadly and wow, what a deluge. Credit to Sayaka Mori in Japan several hours ago: 381 mm of rain fell within 6 hours translating into 2.5 inches an hour aka 15 inches in southern Kyushu. The Kuma River has flooded, houses have collapsed and sadly, there is a death toll.Meanwhile, the GOM and the Caribbean, both east and west, are pretty quiet. Most of the Caribbean, especially the Eastern, could use some rain. The USVI s and BVI s are dry as a bone pretty much. Why? Our two main protectors from storm formation, wind shear and that seemingly omnipresent, drying out the atmosphere Saharan Dust, have been very active so far but as we well know, these will falter as we approach the peak of season, mid August to mid October. With SST s very warm already (the fuel of the storm), wind shear falling, the Saharan Dust level diminishing, and the absence of El Nino in the Pacific, it still looks like an active season ahead. It also looks like some decent rains will start to arrive soon and so will the double edged sword.Preparation and knowledge is the key to protection of life and property. The property can be replaced. You cannot. Remember, it only takes one. Not 15.DaveMonday, June 22, 2020 18:39PM PDT - Dust and TD#4We have a major Saharan dust event underway on the islands and it is the Talk of the Town. Check out the pictures posted by the special hurricane correspondents on the right. Also see the 'true-color' satellite image below, clearly showing dust over the islands. And it looks like more is on the way later this week! A good source to see images of the Saharan Air Layer is at http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/ (the below image is cropped from the GOES-16 Natural Color one).Dust is actually good for suppressing hurricanes. It is still a bit early for the Atlantic Cape Verde storms, so hopefully we get some more dust later. Although, dust is not good for people with allergies and/or respiratory illnesses, as Barabar on St.Maarten noted... Nevertheless, Tropical Depression Four just formed in the Atlantic, albeit well north of it, off Cape Cod. It might become a named storm, but it will be of no threat to (is)land (incl. Bermuda). -GertDust over the Islands - 6/22/2020 [tropic.ssec.wisc.edu]Good afternoon all,It s highly unusual to find a cone of uncertainty that stretches from the GOM all the way well into Canada but that is what TS Cristobals is and continues to be. Heck, the 5 day cone shows Cristobal still a depression over the UP of Michigan! Again highly unlikely but wow how this guy will continue to ramble on well after landfall probably as a very strong system through Canada and the Great Lakes.First things first though, the Atlantic and the Caribbean. East to NE of Bermuda, a low pressure system could form but it s chances are slim at this time. If it does, it would most likely move NW or WNW which could make things interesting for the NE or Canadian Maritimes. If it does reach named storm status, it would become Dolly. Will Dolly meet up with Cristobal if this scenario plays out? That would be a very interesting situation. However, remote for now.The rest of the Atlantic and Caribbean are pretty quiet. A few tropical waves are marching across the MDR or Main Development Region of the Atlantic but we don t usually look for much development in this area at this time of year. SST s are running warmer than usual and wind shear is moderate but Saharan Dust is ever present, stifling any early season attempt. The only wave that has any attention is the one that just splashed down off the African coast but that one s main hindrance is it s proximity to the ITCZ or Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. Until it escapes to over 10 degrees north, it has minimal chance of doing anything.Cristobal is poised to become the second land falling named storm of this very early active season. TS Arthur did not make an actual landfall as it s COC or center of circulation did not touch the Outer Banks, coming within about 20 miles of. Cristobal will be dangerous whether a high end tropical storm or a Cat 1 hurricane, which is entirely possible. It has some work to do wants to achieve that rare event in June. It has to seal off the western side from dry air intrusion, slow down a bit in order to consolidate it COC and bring it s windfield in closer to the core. Cristobal is massive so rapid strengthening is remote. Even when the pressures drop, it is so big the wind field might not have time to catch up. That said, Cristobal has a chance for strengthening overnight before land fall on Sunday. Whether it does or not, storm surge, rip currents, heavy rain and flooding along with tornadoes are on his menu. It is not a polite menu either. This is not Sunday Brunch. Please evacuate if told too. The effects of this system will be felt over a very large area and will continue to be for days to come.Preparation and common sense are keys to survival and the aftermath.DaveTuesday, June 2, 2020 09:43AM PDT - CristobalTropical Depression 3 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Cristobal. This is the first time ever (=since 1851) that 3 named storms have formed this early. 2016 was close, with the third storm forming June 5, and in 2012 the third storm formed on June 17. Don't be fooled, this is a very dangerous storm. Because it is hardly moving it will cause prolonged periods of torrential rainfall in Mexico and Central America. There already have been deaths reported due to flooding in Guatemala and El Salvador. It doesn't look like it will start moving out of the area until Friday... I have shifted the satellite image above a bit more to the west to get a better view at this storm. -GertShower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure area located near the Outer Banks of North Carolina has continued to increase and is showing signs of organization. Recent satellite and radar imagery, along with surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that is just beginning to investigate the system, suggest that a new center of circulation could be forming east of Cape Hatteras. If these development trends continue, this system is likely to become a tropical depression or storm later today or tonight. The low is expected to move north- northeastward along the mid-Atlantic coast tonight through Friday night. Regardless of development, the system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding across portions of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern New England during the next few days. Gusty winds are also possible along the North Carolina Outer Banks today, and along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts Friday and Saturday. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and refer to products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.Forecaster BrownMore detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image- - - Do you live in the Caribbean? - - -Join our team of special local hurricane correspondents.stormCARIB is brought to you by GoBeach Vacations- Your Accommodation Specialist for the Caribbean -Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!GoBeach Vacations- Your source for the best Caribbean vacation you've ever had! -www.gobeach.com | info@gobeach.comThe information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert

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