Global Warming and Climate Change skepticism examined

Time 2020-12-29 21:08:48

Web Name: Global Warming and Climate Change skepticism examined

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Settings Use the controls in the far right panel to increase or decrease the number of terms automatically displayed (or to completely turn that feature off). All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press. Explaining climate change science & rebutting global warming misinformationScientific skepticism is healthy. Scientists should always challenge themselves to improve their understanding. Yet this isn't what happens with climate change denial. Skeptics vigorously criticise any evidence that supports man-made global warming and yet embrace any argument, op-ed, blog orstudy that purports to refute global warming. This website gets skeptical about global warming skepticism. Do their arguments have any scientific basis? What does the peer reviewed scientific literature say? 2020 in Review: an interesting year for Skeptical Science Posted on 29 December 2020 by BaerbelW As we wrap up a truly interesting year 2020 and prepare for 2021, here is our annual review of what our team was up to during the last 12 months, most of which have obviously been dominated by the COVID-19 pandemic. As in previous recaps, this one is divided into several sections:Scholarly publications, projects and booksSeveral members of the SkS-team were lead- or co-authors of peer-reviewed papers published during 2020. Here is a list of some of them:Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 modelsKatarzyna B. Tokarska, Martin B. Stolpe, Sebastian Sippel, Erich M. Fischer, Christopher J. Smith, Flavio Lehner, Reto Knutti (2020, March). Science advances,6(12), eaaz9549.The story of Skeptical Science: How citizen science helped to turn a website into a go-to resource for climate scienceB rbel Winkler John Cook (2020, May). In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts(p. 562).Using the COVID-19 economic crisis to frame climate change as a secondary issue reduces mitigation supportUllrich Ecker, Lucy Butler, John Cook, Mark Hurlstone, Tim Kurz, Stephan Lewandowsky (2020, August). Journal of Environmental Psychology, 70, 101464.Structural barriers to scientific progressKevin Cowtan (2020, September). Acta Crystallographica Section D: Structural Biology,76(10)."[...] This letter was inspired by an apparently similar set of circumstances arising in two different fields. When a crystallographer started comparing climate data sets from national science agencies, the differences led rapidly to a number of insights which were not being pursued by more experienced practitioners (Cowtan Way, 2014; Hausfather et al., 2017; Cowtan et al., 2018).[...]"Pacific variability reconciles observed and modelled global mean temperature increase since 1950Martin B. Stolpe, Kevin Cowtan, Iselin Medhaug Reto Knutti (2020, October). Climate Dynamics, 1-22. Read more... 0 comments Coping with fire-scorched land more prone to mudslides Posted on 28 December 2020 by Guest Author This is are-post from Yale Climate Connections by Daisy SimmonsAfter a fire, rain can feel like a refreshing mercy. But it also spells fresh danger in fire-struck areas made newly vulnerable to mudslides. Amidst recovering from the trauma of a wildfire, people in hillside homes across much of the western U.S., in particular, must now be ready to evacuate when threatening heavy rains appear in the forecast.That s because fires do more to the physical environment than level buildings and fell trees. They also alter the makeup of the soil, making it less likely it will absorb rainwater, especially during a downpour. The same intensity of rain can generate overland flows more than 10 times greater in areas recently burned compared to those without fire, Arizona State University (ASU) environmental engineerMikhail Chester saidin Popular Science.To explain why fire-scorched land is more prone to mudslides, and what communities can do about it, let s begin with the basics.What causes a debris flow?On a typical hillsidenotrecently burned, vegetation helps trap the soil in place. When rain pours down in a major storm, trees, shrubs, grasses, and leaf litter all help protect the soil from a heavy downpour, giving water more time to soak into the ground.As much as 5 years after the raging embers have cooled, resulting mudflows can pose still more threats.But when fire destroys that vegetation, there can be little left to keep soil and sediment from flowing down a steep hill, much less retain water there. What s more, parched, fire-charred soil can becomehydrophobic, which means it actually repels water, just as pavement does.(Source:National Weather Service) Read more... 0 comments 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #52 Posted on 27 December 2020 by John HartzStory of the Week... Editorial of the Week... Toon of the Week... Graphic of the Week...Coming Soon on SkS... Climate Feedback Claim Review... SkS Week in Review... Poster of the Week...Story of the Week...The Resistance: In the President s Relentless War on Climate Science, They Fought BackThe scientists' efforts were often unseen and sometimes unsuccessful. But over four years, they mounted a guerilla defense that kept pressure on the Trump Administration.Every time the word climate was deleted from the name of his program at the Environmental Protection Agency, Dan Costa stuck it back in.Chris Frey fought back in the unlikely setting of a hotel conference room, where he and 20 other members of an EPA science review panel dismissed by the Trump administration met to do their job anyway, later publishing their views in a prestigious medical journal.And as Jeff Alson was walking out the door of the EPA in frustration after a 40-year career at the agency, he gave pep talks to the younger engineers about why they had to stay on. I told them what I m going to do for you is go out and tell the truth, so that the public knows that this rollback is not being done by EPA staff, it is being done by other people in the government, Alson said.These are snapshots of the resistance. Although their names are little known and their efforts often went unseen, they defied the relentless campaign President Donald Trump and his administration waged against mainstream science during the four years of his presidency particularly the scientific consensus on climate change.The outcome of this war is yet to be written. Trump has rolled back more than 100 environmental regulations, loosening restrictions on fossil fuel development when the science points ever more urgently to the need to stop the reliance on energy sources that produce greenhouse gas emissions. In California earlier this year, the president summarized his administration s attitude toward scientific expertise: I don t think the science knows, he said, as the state s worst wildfire season on record raged all around him.But the Trump administration s drive to dismiss and deny climate science has made only partial headway. In what may be a sign of the robustness of both the science and the U.S. institutions that support it, scientists inside and outside the federal agencies fought back.Click hereto access the entire article as originally posted on the InsideClimate News website.The Resistance: In the President s Relentless War on Climate Science, They Fought Backby Marianne Lavelle, Science, InsideClimate News, Dec 27, 2020 Read more... 0 comments 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #52 Posted on 26 December 2020 by John Hartz A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Dec 20, 2020 through Sat, Dec 26, 2020Editor's Choice2020 Was a Busy Year for Taking the Climate Fight to the CourtsU.S. Supreme Court BuildingThis year with its converging crises, from the coronavirus pandemic to longstanding racial injustice to climate-related disasters was also a remarkably active time for climate litigation. All around the world, communities, organizations, and especially young people turned to the courts in 2020 in strategic attempts to hold governments and polluting companies accountable for exacerbating the unfolding climate emergency.In particular, this year saw a notable uptick inclimate accountability litigationwith multiple new cases filed in theU.S.andinternationally. This extremely challenging year has made clear that people and the planet must come first, Kristin Casper, general counsel with Greenpeace International, told DeSmog in an emailed statement. Many are taking action to make it a reality by bringing their demands for climate justice to the courts. We re seeing climate litigation spring up all over the world. Advocates in many countries are finding it a very useful tactic, said Michael Gerrard, environmental law professor at Columbia Law School and founder and faculty director of Columbia s Sabin Center for Climate Change Law.Over the years there have been more than 1,500 climate-related cases in 37 countries, according to a report on climate litigation trends released this summer. And a new wave of cases in recent years has made it clear that courts are emerging as a critical battleground in the climate fight.Click hereto access the entire article as originally published on the DeSmog website.2020 Was a Busy Year for Taking the Climate Fight to the Courtsby Dana Drugmond, DeSmog, Dec 21, 2020 Read more... 0 comments UNEP: Net-zero pledges provide an ‘opening’ to close growing emissions ‘gap’ Posted on 25 December 2020 by Guest Author This article, authored by Zeke Hausfather, was originally published on the Carbon Brief website on Dec 9, 2020. It is reposted below in its entirety.Click here to access the original article and comments.Wind farm in southern France.The recent net-zero pledges by major emitting countries and the potential for a green recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic presents the opening for the world to close the growing gap between existing commitments and what is needed to limit global warming to meet the Paris Agreement goals.This is according to the latest UN Environment Programme (UNEP) emissions gapreport, published today.The annual report, now in its 11th year, finds that global emissionswill fall in 2020due to Covid-19 related disruptions. But it also shows starkly how quickly the 1.5C goal is slipping out of reach, as well as how limiting global warming to the well below 2C goal is becoming more difficult with every passing year in which emissions continue to grow.However, UNEP highlights three areas the recovery from Covid-19, a new willingness by countries to set ambitious mitigation targets, and the rapid advances in clean energy technologies which together provide an opportunity to help close this emissions gap .But, in the absence of more structural policy-driven changes, it suggests that emissions will rebound in coming years and the gap between commitments and necessary levels of mitigation will remain as large as it was last year. (Carbon Brief s archives also include detailed coverage of the UNEP reports in2014,2015,2016,2017,2018and2019).This year s report finds that, by 2030, global greenhouse gas emissions will need to fall by 23% from 2019 levels to put the world on track to likely (66% chance) avoid 2C warming above pre-industrial temperatures, by 33% to likely avoid 1.8C warming, and by 56% to likely avoid 1.5C warming.The existing short-term commitments under the Paris Agreement, on the other hand, imply that emissions will simply plateau, remaining only slightly below 2019 levels by 2030.At the same time, a growing number of countries including China,Japan,South Korea, the EU, theUKand the incomingBiden-Harrisadministration in the US have recently pledged to bring emissions down to net-zero by the year 2050 or 2060.The report suggests that these commitments are broadly consistent with the Paris Agreement s 1.5C goal, but still need to be reflected in near-term policy action and via enhanced nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Read more... 0 comments Skeptical Science Housekeeping - December 2020 Posted on 24 December 2020 by BaerbelW Before the year 2020 comes to a close, we'd like to make you aware of a few visible changes applied to our homepage since we published this type of blog post in April. Compared to this earlier blog post, the changes mentioned here are smaller in nature but especially the first one could prove to be quite useful.New option to suggest updates for rebuttalsWe fairly regurlarly receive emails via our contact form pointing out things like broken links or missing images in rebuttals. Sometimes emails mention suggested updates for a given rebuttal. As it's sometimes difficult to keep track of these types of suggestions, we've now created a Google form to collect this feedback in a more organized way. To make it as easy as possible for you to provide feedback on the rebuttal you just read, you'll now find the link to the form in a new section below each rebuttal.Simply click on the link and you'll be taken to the form which has the rebuttal's URL already prefilled as well as your SkS username if you had been logged in when filling it out. If the field is empty please provide your name as it is a required field. You don't need to specify an email-address but if you do, it'll obviously help us to contact you in case of questions or to provide feedback about your suggestions. Read more... 2 comments Skeptical Science New Research for Week #51, 2020 Posted on 23 December 2020 by doug_bostrom Policy dilutionWang et al deliver a remarkable soup-to-nuts examination of adaptation policy as it pertains to increasing climate change and accompanying coastal inundation events. With reference particularly to outcomes in a country where policymakers at the top level have been sensitive to the need for and have promulgated forward-leaning responses to increased exposure, the authors examine what happens as specific policy formulations trickle down to the local scale, confronting and being buffeted by various confounding influences. Typhoon Haiyan is used as a principle example. From the article discussion of findings:In hindsight, the Haiyan disaster highlights the gaps across tiers of government from national to city/local levels down to communities, households, and individuals, as shown inFig. 23, at horizontal and vertical scales. In fact, the Philippine government has exerted significant efforts and great progress in developing national policies to mitigate the risks of natural disasters and climate change. However, the relevance of these policies to implementation and their influence gradually diminish at the finer scale of provinces, local government, communities, and householders, thereby creating a significant barrier for the government to build a proper level of capacity for the local communities and householders in response to natural disasters and climate change risks such as Haiyan.We're entering an era of unprecedented challenges as the effects of changes we've wrought on climate collide with our culture. It's going to require concerted attention at all levels to minimize the mayhem in our future.Research of this kind will help us to tune and improve our success.Reflections on coastal inundation, climate change impact, and adaptation in built environment: Progresses and constraintsis open access and well worth attention.96 ArticlesPhysical science of climate change, effectsAn observation-based scaling model for climate sensitivity estimates and global projections to 2100 Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05521-x The Study of Changing Characteristics of the Winter Temperature and Extreme Cold Events in China over the Past Six Decades DOI: 10.1002/joc.6970 Observations of climate change, effectsRegional changes in extreme temperature records over Pakistan and their relation to Pacific variability DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105407 Investigation of the Arctic sea ice volume from 2002 to 2018 using multi‐source data DOI: 10.1002/joc.6972 Global pattern of historical and future changes in rapid temperature variability Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abccf3 Changing climate risk in the UK: a multi-sectoral analysis using policy-relevant indicators Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2020.100265 Read more... 0 comments The top 10 weather and climate events of a record-setting year Posted on 22 December 2020 by dana1981, Guest Author This is are-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jeff Masters and Dana NuccitelliCalendar year 2020 was an extreme and abnormal year, in so many ways. The global coronavirus pandemic altered people s lives around the world, as did extreme weather and climate events. Let s review the year s top 10 such events.1. Hottest year on record?The official rankings will not be released until January 14, butaccording to NASA, Earth s average surface temperature in 2020 is likely to tie with 2016 for the hottest year on record, making the last seven years the seven hottest on record.Remarkably, the record warmth of 2020 occurred during a minimum in the solar cycle and in a year in which a moderate La Ni a event formed. Surface cooling of the tropical Pacific during La Ni a events typically causes a slight global cool-down, as does the minimum of the solar cycle, making it difficult to set all-time heat records. The record heat of 2020 in these circumstances is a demonstration of how powerful human causes of global warming have become. Read more... 10 comments More CO2 in the atmosphere hurts key plants and crops more than it helps Posted on 21 December 2020 by Guest Author This is are-post from Yale Climate Connections by Karin KirkTake a look out the window and it s easy to see how people are changing the landscape. The human fingerprint touches almost every part of the globe. We ve also shaped the planet in ways that aren t visible: Human activities have actually changed the composition of the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is an important component of the atmosphere, and human activities have increased the amount of this gas in the atmosphereby 45%since widespread industrial activities began in the mid-1700s.This is important because CO2 plays multiple roles in keeping Earth s climate stable. Nature is a carefully balanced system, and over the years, humans have disrupted this balance. Thankfully, we also are capable of reducing our impact especially now that we understand more about how the Earth system works.But you may have heard a myth that nature s balance doesn t really matter. After all, CO2 is natural, and it helps plants and crops grow. That s true. But it s also misleading in that it s only part of the story. A widely circulated myth suggests that adding extra CO2 to the atmosphere will fertilize plants and crops and make the world greener and better. Unfortunately, that turns out not to be true.The myth that CO2 is plant food and that extra CO2 therefore can t be bad is an example of a logical fallacy. It sort of sounds right, but it s a major oversimplification. It s appealing because it suggests that it s okay to emit the pollution that causes climate change. But the myth is not true. It s so oversimplified that it leaves out other important factors that help plants grow and all of the damage that extra CO2 is causing. Just think of it in terms of too much of a good thing is a bad thing as, for example, with too much water causing a bathtub to overflow. Read more... 3 comments 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #51 Posted on 20 December 2020 by John HartzStory of the Week... Editorial of the Week... Toon of the Week... Coming Soon on SkS... Climate Feedback Claim Review... SkS Week in Review... Poster of the Week...Story of the Week...Earth plays it cool, but global warming is unrelentingThe Met Office annual global temperature forecast for 2021 suggests that next year will once again enter the series of the Earth s hottest years.The average global temperature for 2021 is forecast to be between 0.91 C and 1.15 C (with a central estimate of 1.03 C) above the average for the pre-industrial period (1850-1900): the seventh year in succession when temperatures have exceeded or been close to 1.0 C above pre-industrial levels.The Met Office global temperature forecast for 2021 is slightly lower than some previous years since 2015, largely because of the influence of La Ni a in the tropical Pacific, where sea surface temperatures are 1.0-2.0 C below average. La Ni a is the opposing side of El Ni o and has atemporary cooling effect on global average temperature.Met Office scientist, Dr Nick Dunstone said: The variability of the La Ni a / El Ni o cycle is the second most important factor in determining the Earth s temperature but it is simply dwarfed by the forcing effect of increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The series of warmest years began in 2015; the first year when global temperatures exceeded 1.0 C above the pre-industrial period (1850-1900). The forecast is based on the key drivers of the global climate, but it doesn t include unpredictable events such as large volcanic eruptions, which would cause a temporary cooling.Click here to access the entire article as originally published on the Met Office website.Earth plays it cool, but global warming is unrelentingby Grahame Madge, Met Office (UK), Dec 18, 2020 Read more... 0 comments 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #51 Posted on 19 December 2020 by John Hartz A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Dec 13, 2020 through Sat, Dec 19, 2020Editor's ChoiceAre we really ready to tackle the climate crisis? Yes, here s 6 reasons whyThe Paris agreement called for global action to curb rising CO2 emissions.Individuals, organizations and governments are making real progress in battling the climate crisis.Pledging to reduce carbon emissions and investing in renewable energy are some of the key strides being taken.It's vital that momentum is continually building, to reduce the negative effects of climate change.Since the adoption of the landmark Paris Agreement on climate change in 2015, global momentum to tackle the climate crisis has been building. Progress has been made on almost every front, from bold corporate emissions-reduction targets and investors shifting away from coal to a surge of support for net-zero targets and a rising movement of youth activists from Uganda to India, culminating in Greta Thunberg being recognized as Time Magazine s 2019 Person of the Year. While the coronavirus pandemic led to ahistoric drop in global emissionsthis year, this dropwill be a blipin the ongoing trend of ever-climbing GHG emissions unless backed up by changes in policy and business practices. Last year was thesecond-hottest on recordglobally, and 2020 is on track to be thewarmest year ever.From wildfires in Australia and the western United States to this year srecord-breaking hurricane season, communities around the world continue to face devastating extreme weather events, many exacerbated by the climate crisis. A lot of work lies ahead of us.The coronavirus pandemic, while first and foremost a health, employment and economic crisis, will also impact efforts to advance climate action. On the one hand, most leaders are not focused on climate action these days, and the COP26 climate summit originally scheduled for November 2020 in Glasgow was postponed until next year. On the other hand, this health crisis shows that countries can respond rapidly to a global emergency.Here are six ways the world has shown it s ready for more ambitious climate action since the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015:Click hereto access the entire article as originally posted on the World Economic Forum's website.Are we really ready to tackle the climate crisis? Yes, here s 6 reasons whyby Molly Bergern Helen Mountford, World Economic Forum, Dec 18, 2020 Read more... 0 comments Analysis: When might the world exceed 1.5C and 2C of global warming? Posted on 18 December 2020 by Guest Author This article, authored by Zeke Hausfather, was originally published on the Carbon Brief website on Dec 4, 2020. It is reposted below in its entirety.Click here to access the original article and comments.Dubai. Photo by Abbas MohammedfromPexelsUnder theParis Agreementadopted in 2015, virtually all the world s nations pledged to limit global warming to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels and also, if possible, pursue efforts to cap warming at 1.5C. At present, the world isnot closeto being on track to meet either target.While the growth of global emissionshas slowedin recent years, there is alarge and growing gapbetween current commitments and what would be needed to avoid exceeding these global temperature limits.Here, Carbon Brief provides an analysis of when the world is expected to pass these limits in the absence of large future emissions reductions. This is based on the latest generation of climate models known as CMIP6 (see Carbon Brief sexplainer) that are being run in the lead up to theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change s (IPCC)sixth assessment reportexpected in 2021-22.Our analysis shows that:The world will likely exceed 1.5C between 2026 and 2042 in scenarios where emissions are not rapidly reduced, with acentral estimateof between 2030 and 2032.The 2C threshold will likely be exceeded between 2034 and 2052 in the highest emissions scenario, with a median year of 2043.In a scenario of modest mitigation where emissions remain close to current levels the 2C threshold would be exceeded between 2038 and 2072, with a median of 2052. Read more... 2 comments Emphasizing 'opportunity' to help bridge divide on climate action Posted on 17 December 2020 by Guest Author This is are-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jeff Berardelli Opportunity through clean energy initiatives may be a key to bridging the divide and getting more engagement for climate action.After four years of widespread climate despair over inaction, and worse, in the Nation s Capital, the election of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris is about to mark a 180-degree change on federal climate policy, prompting renewed optimism among climate crusaders. While there are steps the incoming administration can take through Executive branch actions, with control of the Senate still up in the air, optimism about aggressive climate policy remains qualified.Analysis and commentaryEven if Democrats squeak out a narrow majority in the Senate and as much as the climate-concerned would like to move climate policy through Congress Biden will most certainly need support from lawmakers across the aisle, and also from Democrats whose voters are still employed by a more traditional economy. Winning over some of these politicians think here Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia and their home-state constituents, will be a key to success, making strategic climate communications more vital than ever.Decades of climate communications have shown some basic realities, one of which is that all the scientific facts in the world don t on their own amount to a winning communications strategy. And while a broad solutions-based communication emphasis is helping make progress, sweeping climate and energy policy clearly is by no means a certainty.In this context, a more pointed opportunities-based communications strategy is needed, one highlighting the various opportunities which empower people by addressing their very real individual needs and the needs of countless disaffected, and traditionally underserved, communities.Over the past few years, this opportunities-based communications strategy has gotten a huge shot in the arm by renewable energy interests and their proponents. It s now low-hanging fruit, just waiting to be harvested. That s because the hoped-for green industrial revolution is no longer pie in the sky, it s real and happening in broad daylight for everyone to see. Renewables are now thecheapest form of energy, the result oftechnological advances and economies of scale. Renewable energy jobs are now thefastest growing occupations in the U.S.andfossil fuel jobs are declining. As seen in arecent CBS News storyby the author of this post, this reality is becoming evident even in states traditionally among the most reliant on discovering and exploiting fossil fuels. Read more... 1 comments Skeptical Science New Research for Week #50, 2020 Posted on 16 December 2020 by doug_bostrom "Wait - we don't need a bigger computer?"Readers following the "Advances in climate climate effects modeling..." portion of the weekly research roundup may have noticed: in general, higher model resolution calculatingclimate behaviorsat finer scales is helpful for increasing model fidelity against real-world observations. Coincident to this is another matter: It may be unfair as a purely scientific matter but climate models are held to a peculiarly high standard, given their crucial role as decision tools affecting huge swathes of human affairs. Within the error brackets of "we're in trouble" models have been good enough for quite a while, but what with the fuss and bother of modernization to account for what we're learning some folks want to make quite sure of what they're buying into, and fair enough on that.All of this translates to more hardware and expense, especially with the fading of "Moore's Law." Thus it comes as a welcome relief to "we need more transistors!"when we see such a finding asJinlun Zhang'sSea ice properties in high‐resolution sea ice models, where it appears to be the case that ever-finer resolution does not continue to produce results with productively higher fidelity. The abstract: Read more... 0 comments Cranky Uncle Game Now Available! Posted on 15 December 2020 by John Cook The Cranky Uncle game - teaching players how to spot misinformation about climate change and other science topics - has just launched! You can download it for free oniPhonenow (the Android version will be available shortly).In this first release of the game, Cranky Uncle mentors you to become a Cranky Uncle yourself, explaining 14 techniques of science denial, from fake experts to cherry picking and a variety ofdifferent logical fallacies. This is based on a resilience-building technique known as active inoculation. To learn how to spot someone cheating at cards, first, you have to learn how to cheat at cards.We ve also released avideo introduction to the game: Critical Thinking Cafe 2(a sequel to the2018 Critical Thinking Cafe video introductionof our critical thinking research). Read more... 0 comments A 50-Year-Old Global Warming Forecast That Still Holds Up Posted on 14 December 2020 by Guest Author This is are-post from Eos byAndrei LapenisThis year marks the 100th anniversary of the birth of my mentor, climatologist Mikhail Budyko (1920 2001). Fifty years ago, when the science of climate change prediction was in its infancy, this scientist from the Soviet Union made a series of climate predictions that have proven to be surprisingly on target in the years since.These predictions were not as well known as some of his other work. The reason for this had to do, as Budyko recalled in a1990 interview, with most of his colleagues at the time rejecting the idea of unavoidable, long-term global warming as something absolutely impossible. It took almost 20 years for the scientific establishment to accept this paradigm.Here I summarize the methods behind Budyko s predictions and demonstrate why his forecast was an important step in the development of contemporary climate science and why it should be the basis of a new business-as-usual scenario of global warming, characterizing changes on Earth that may result if we do not make any additional efforts to mitigate or reverse climate change.A Prescient Look at Today s ClimateBudyko is better known for his work in several other areas of study. In 1969, he authored the first global energy balance model describing snowball Earth conditions, in which nearly the entire planet freezes over [Budyko, 1969]. (This actually happened on Earth during a period that ended about 635 million years ago, when complex life was just starting to develop.) He also developed the Budyko curve for modeling plant evapotranspiration as a function of how wet or dry the environment is. And his Budyko blanket idea for artificial solar radiation management,published in 1974, imagined the use of sulfate aerosol particles injected into Earth s stratosphere to control global warming.In 1972, Budyko predicted that Earth s mean global temperature would increase about 2.25 C by 2070 and that the Arctic would no longer be covered by ice year-round by 2050.In 1972, before the mean global temperature began the sharp, steady rise seen in the half century since, Budyko published a lesser known climate forecast extending 100 years into the future. He predicted that Earth s mean global temperature would increase about 2.25 C by 2070 and that the Arctic would no longer be covered by ice year-round by 2050 [Budyko, 1972]. (Budyko briefly discussed the part of his forecast dealing with Arctic ice in a 1972Eosarticlecited more than 100 times since.) Despite his confidence in his work, he cautioned that his estimates were made under assumptions of a significantly simplified climate system and should be viewed accordingly [Budyko, 1972], so it might have surprised him to see how closely actual events aligned with his predictions.Comparing 2019 to 1970, Budyko predicted an increase in the global mean temperature of 1 C and the disappearance of about 50% of Arctic multiyear ice. Observations have borne out these trends, demonstrating that mean global temperature increased by 0.98 C over this period and that the extent of multiyear Arctic sea ice in September 2019 was about 46% smaller than in 1970 (Figure 1).Fig. 1. Mikhail Budyko s 1972 predictions (solid gray lines) of (a) surface temperature and (b) changes in Arctic sea ice. In (a), the thin black solid line shows the 5-year-average observations of changes in mean global temperature from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space StudiesSurface Temperature Analysisversion 4. The dotted line shows the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) business-as-usual scenario; the dashed line shows the IPCC low-emissions scenario. In (b), the thin black solid line showssatellite observationsof changes in the extent of Arctic multiyear ice. The area of sea ice forecast was calculated from original predictions by Budyko of the average latitude of the sea ice border [Budyko, 1972] by assuming a circular shape of the multiyear ice field and by normalizing this area to its 1970 value. Click image for larger version.The accuracy of these predictions is especially fascinating in light of the prevailinguncertaintyin modern, complex global circulation models [Zelinka et al., 2020]. Even though these newer models incorporate more complexity, until about 2009, most models of Arctic sea ice dynamics consistently underestimated the actual rate at which the Arctic lost ice over the past several decades. Read more... 5 comments 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #50 Posted on 13 December 2020 by John HartzStory of the Week... Toon of the Week... Reports of Note... Coming Soon on SkS... Poster of the Week... SkS Week in Review...Story of the Week...World is in danger of missing Paris climate target, summit is warnedMinister tells more than 80 world leaders that not enough is being doneNarendra Modi vowed to cut CO2 by 2047 but made no pledge on coal production. Photograph: John Giles/PAThe world is still not on track to fulfil the 2015 Paris climate agreement, the UK s business secretary Alok Sharma warned, after asummit of more than 70 world leaders on the climate crisisended with few new commitments on greenhouse gas emissions.Sharma said: [People] will ask Have we done enough to put the world on track to limit warming to 1.5C and protect people and nature from the effects of climate change? We must be honest with ourselves the answer to that is currently no. He said progress had been made at theClimate Ambition Summit, co-hosted by the UK, the UN and France, markingfive years since the Paris accord was adopted. More than 80 world leaders including China s Xi Jinping, the European commission president Ursula von der Leyen, and Pope Francis urged swifter action on the climate crisis.Click hereto access the entire article as originally published on The Guardian website.Minister tells more than 80 world leaders that not enough is being doneby Fiona Harvey, Environment, The Observer/Guardian, Dec 12, 2020 Read more... 0 comments 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #50 Posted on 12 December 2020 by John Hartz A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Dec 6, 2020 through Sat, Dec 12, 2020Editor's ChoiceIn Must-Watch Video, Greta Thunberg Warns Humanity 'Still Speeding in Wrong Direction' on ClimateThe global crisis, says the youth leader, "cannot be solved without system change. That's no longer an opinion. That's a fact."Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg (C) takes part in a Fridays For Future protest in front of the Swedish Parliament (Riksdagen) in Stockholm on September 25, 2020. (Photo: Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP via Getty Images)Teen climate leader Greta Thunberg on Thursday reiterated herdemandthat humanity end its inaction on the planetary emergency as she warned five years after the Paris agreement was signed the world is "speeding in the wrong direction" in terms of emission reductions.With nothing less than a total "system change" needed, the 17-year-old Swede told viewers in a new video that she's "inviting you to be part of the solution."Thunberg shared the 3-minute video on Twitter Thursday two days before the Paris climate agreement's five-yearanniversary.Note: The above video is embedded in the Greta Thunberg Tweet embedded in the original article posted on the Common Dreams website.Click hereto access the entire article as originally posted on the Common Dreams website.In Must-Watch Video, Greta Thunberg Warns Humanity 'Still Speeding in Wrong Direction' on Climateby Andrea Germanos, Common Dreams, Dec 10, 2020 Read more... 0 comments Skeptical Science New Research for Week #49, 2020 Posted on 9 December 2020 by doug_bostrom No bloviation?Because we've had an unusually large number of articles come in, this week's New Research has bumped up against a length limit. Hence readers will be either deeply saddened or entirely delighted to miss the usual article highlight and "editorial remarks."153 Articles[We regret to say that after last week's mangling problem with URLs, the AMS is AWOL entirely for this week, with the AMS RSS feed not showing recent entries. Meanwhile, AGU is back.]Physical science of climate change, effectsClouds, radiation, and atmospheric circulation in the present‐day climate and under climate change Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/wcc.694 Observations of climate change, effectsUsing Bayesian Statistics to Detect Trends in Alaskan Precipitation DOI: 10.1002/joc.6946 Reviews and syntheses: Present, past, and future of the oxygen minimum zone in the northern Indian Ocean Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-17-6051-2020 Past peak water in the North Caucasus: deglaciation drives a reduction in glacial runoff impacting summer river runoff and peak discharges DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02931-y The warming Tibetan Plateau improves winter air quality in the Sichuan Basin, China Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-20-14873-2020 Widespread Persistent Extreme Cold Events over South‐East China:Mechanisms, trends and attribution. DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033447 Read more... 1 comments The Consensus Project Website THE ESCALATOR (free to republish)

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Examines the science and arguments of global warming skepticism. Common objections like 'global warming is caused by the sun', 'temperature has changed naturally in the past' or 'other planets are warming too' are examined to see what the science really says.

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