Clive Best | Science Travel Opinions

Time 2020-09-14 10:03:34

Web Name: Clive Best | Science Travel Opinions

WebSite: http://clivebest.com

ID:46100

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Best,Clive,Science,

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My 3D calculation of the global temperature anomaly for July 2020 using GHCN-V4 and HadSST3 is 0.79C (baseline 1961-1990), the same value as for June. However the spatial distribution has changed significantly.July spatial temperaturesHere are the monthly trendsand the annual trend after 7 months of 2020.Annual temperature anomalies (7 months of 2020)This is a small fall of 0.03C on June. The global temperature for June 2020 was 0.79C based on my spherical triangulation method. Here are the monthly results based on the latest GHCN-V4 and HadSST3 data as compared to those from original V3C station data. 3D Global monthly temperature anomalies relative to a 1961-1990 baseline. The dashed red line shows  the long term average from  1998-2019The temperature peaked in February at 1.1C and has since been falling. The Northern Hemisphere also shows a notable hotspot across Siberia as shown below.Spatial temperature distribution based on a triangular mesh.Half way through 2020 we can also calculate the annual temperature anomaly. This gives an average value for the first 6 months of 0.98C. For comparison I also show the results based on HadCRUT4.6 up to 2019. CRUTEM4 station data is not yet available for June 2020.Annual global temperature anomalies. HC4-3D uses Spherical triangulation. HadCRUT4.6 is the traditional version2020 looks set to become the warmest year to date, although the monthly trend still appears to be dropping. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) Covid-19 infection survey is based on random testing of a representative sample of the public in England. It is updated once a week. This gives by far the clearest estimate of the overall infection rate within the community ( The data actually use fortnightly results so the weekly figures represents a rolling average of infections). The results for July 8 show that the level of active infections have fallen to roughly 0.04% of the population and seems to be levelling off at that level. About 1 in 4000 people are currently infected with COVID-19 in England. ONS provide an embedded version of their results which I am hoping gets  updated weekly.The population of England is 56 million people so an infection rate of 0.03% means there are currently ~ 14,000 people with Covid-19  Another way to see this is to look at the risk of anyone in the public catching COVID-19.This says that on average there is roughly a 1 in 2500 chance of being infected with COVID-19 each  week. An alternative narrative is that with this level of infection it would take 50 years for everyone to catch COVID-19 at least once and  a further 5000 10000 years to actually die from it. This assumes there is no herd immunity or that any  vaccine available.Here are the regional infections for England.The graphs in this post should update automatically as the ONS updates their survey results each week. If so I will make a new widget !We shall see next week!

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