BrothersJudd Blog

Time 2020-12-21 13:04:18

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Posted by orrinj at 5:37 PMBORING PLACEHOLDER ALONE WAS WORTH THE VOTE:A Biden Style of Government Is Emerging: Lowest Drama Possible (Gabriel Debenedetti, 12/20/20, New York)Biden's organizing principle seems to be a Barack Obama-inspired "no drama" insistence on minimizing the potential for conflict in his administration. He set out to make his picks by identifying a diverse group of inoffensive, proven bureaucrats and people who are familiar to him, rather than sifting through a ton of policy experts he didn't know quite as well. Whereas his immediate predecessor obliterated the expectation of expertise in any form, Biden has put a premium on trust, general government experience, and a semblance of ideological balance over subject-matter virtuosity largely because he sees the country as facing a sprawling, interconnected crisis rather than a set of parallel disasters to be dealt with agency by agency.With some exceptions, if there was any reason to believe a potential pick might cause heartburn -- leaks? Scandals? -- they were out. At times, that has meant dumping political allies: Buttigieg made sense for Transportation because the early front-runner, L.A. mayor Eric Garcetti, a Biden campaign co-chair, became a political liability following reports that he knew about one of his top aides' sexual misconduct. After New Mexico governor and transition co-chair Michelle Lujan Grisham turned down Interior secretary because she wanted the HHS job, only for that snub to leak to the press, she was iced out. By that point, Becerra, who was first considered for attorney general, was looked upon favorably for his work as California's top lawyer defending Obamacare from Trump's assaults.Even some within Biden's camp aren't completely sure how this kind of Cabinet is supposed to work: Where are the lines of command in an ecosystem with so many picks who are known to have backslapping, personal access to him or are considered among nearly half a century's worth of Biden's D.C. friends? Already, some Democratic senators are griping about not being kept more directly in the loop -- and are annoyed they didn't get a formal heads-up about Biden's ex-military Defense-secretary nominee, for whom they'll have to pass an exemption, despite the fact that that pick was publicly floated for a week.If you're not looking to do anything, a Cabinet of bureaucrats is ideal. Posted by orrinj at 5:32 PMTHEY'RE A FETISH, NOT A NECESSITY:Death by Missiles: What if Having a Navy Does Not Make Sense Any More? (James Holmes, 12/20/20, National Interest)Progress is messy and fractious, not orderly and dispassionate. Naval analysts and practitioners should refuse to be Baghdad Bob. We should ask ourselves frankly whether we're guardians of an increasingly obsolescent paradigm of naval warfare. If so, we will find ourselves in jeopardy should we encounter an antagonist that espies a worthier naval-warfare paradigm. Best to think ahead now in case our cherished archetype splinters around us.Anomalies abound in today's marine paradigm. Aircraft carriers and other surface combatants, long masters of the sea, now operate under the shadow of shore-based missiles and aircraft that greatly outrange them--calling into question whether they can fight their way to the scene of a fight, let alone prevail. It's hard to win command of the sea or project power ashore when you never close within weapons range to open fire. Increasingly lethal integrated air defenses imperil non-stealthy aircraft and perhaps stealthy ones as well. Reputable undersea-warfare mavens speculate that newfangled sensor and computer technology verges on rendering the oceans and seas transparent--stripping submarines of their chief advantage, stealth, and exposing them to being hunted down and sunk.Any one of these anomalies would call into question whether fleets built around the same basic platforms that fought World War II--carriers, cruisers and destroyers, amphibious transports, subs--have a future in a world bristling with extended-reach missiles, unmanned vehicles of all types, and artificial intelligence. Combined, anomalies between the new normal and the old paradigm spell trouble.For the sake of questioning the ruling paradigm and transcending it if necessary, let's suppose these anomalies are real, significant, and enduring. Current trends are not mere momentary shifts of advantage in the eternal tug of war between fleets prowling the sea and forts that festoon shorelines. Land warfare has won, or stands poised to. What might possible futures hold? First, consider the trivial yet most baleful future. Great powers, and potentially lesser coastal states as well, might field precision weaponry capable of striking enemy craft on, above, or beneath the ocean's surface many thousands of miles away. China got a head start assembling such a panoply with its DF-21D and DF-26 anti-ship ballistic missiles, which can ostensibly strike major surface combatants as far as 2,400 miles offshore. But such technology is scarcely beyond American, Russian, or European ingenuity.Suppose multiple contenders did field armaments with the reach to span the Atlantic, Pacific, or Indian oceans. If they did a kind of conventional mutual assured destruction might come to blanket these waters. Fleets would be vulnerable while bobbing at their moorings in home port, never mind if they put to sea. Mutually assured destruction prevailed during the Cold War because few leaders countenanced an atomic holocaust. Few political stakes warranted gambling on Armageddon. Deterrence held, if shakily at times. Whether it will hold in a future when armed forces can pummel seagoing forces at vast distances with conventional rather than doomsday arms is a dicey question. A brave new world is at hand if the political and psychological barriers to ordering such an attack prove readily surmountable. Posted by orrinj at 12:00 AMTHERE'S NO SUCH THING AS INDIVIDUAL LIBERTY:The Power of Citizens Organized: a review ofThe Will of the People: The Revolutionary Birth of America by T. H. Breen (Daniel James Sundahl, 12/20/20, University Bookman)In an elegant and different book, T. H. Breen documents the constructive and stabilizing ways in which communities of ordinary folk who comprise "the will of the people" took responsibility for the actual course of the revolution. Professor Breen asks his reader to consider how a rural countryside minister might use the Bible and his own commonsense notions of civil liberty to propel his parishioners to mobilize and maintain allegiance to the colonial cause. It's a neglected and under-appreciated story, as Professor Breen notes: "the story of those people whose will the republican system was meant to reflect ... a founding people rather than a few Founders." More to the point, Professor Breen suggests that if in fact "ordinary people ... sustained the revolution in [their] small communities," then throughout America "a different understanding of liberty" developed, "one that is now more than ever worth recovering."Professor Breen adds to his argument the notion that we should therefore attend closely to such sentiments as those voiced by Levi Hart, a Connecticut minister, highly respected, and a sermon titled "Liberty Described and Recommended." Liberty, the good minister voiced to his congregation on a Sunday in 1775, a noteworthy date, is a "positive good." Then with careful and common sense he qualified his enthusiasm thus: "Some people always give in to excess." Therefore liberty is too often understood as the ability and power of doing as we please. One should therefore note that this small Connecticut congregation is a small portion of the "public square" into which "opinion" ventures.Reverend Hart's opinion for his congregation is wonderfully posed: The liberty of self-indulgence that is an expression of individualism poses a serious danger to civil society. Civil liberty does not mean freedom from all law and government. In fact, such liberty of self-indulgence is akin to mankind in a state of nature--that is, not a form of liberty flourishing in stable communities, which one should note are synonymous to those "little platoons" so admired by a conservative mind like that of Russell Kirk.Liberty has to be considered and defined with reference to society. Posted by orrinj at 12:00 AMNO ONE HATES JUST MEXICANS:Trump's impact on Indian Country over four years(Anna V. Smith, Dec. 16th, 2020, High Country News)In the first year of his administration, Trump made his priorities clear with a series of memos and executive orders repealing protections for land and wildlife. His "America First" energy plan expedited controversial projects like the Dakota Access and Keystone XL pipelines, which faced monumental, sustained opposition by Native nations and their allies. He reduced the newly established Bears Ears National Monument by 85%, a monument whose creation had been Indigenous-led and centered. "Trump took the position against Native people first thing in office," said Matt Campbell, staff attorney at the Native American Rights Fund and enrolled member of the Native Village of Gambell. "So, I think that set the tone early on for the relationship."Trump's policy directives also reduced environmental protections. Federal laws like the National Environmental Policy Act, Clean Water Act and Endangered Species Act enable tribes to give input on large-scale projects on their ancestral lands. Under Trump, these were weakened. "The total onslaught of federal rule rollbacks under environmental laws was like nothing we've ever seen. It was dizzying," said Gussie Lord (Oneida Nation of Wisconsin), managing attorney of tribal partnerships at Earthjustice. "It resulted in not only a weakening of substantive environmental protection, but was also a real attack on public participation and access to information."And then, the pandemic: As Senate aides told the Huffington Post, tribal nations were not initially included in the first COVID-19 relief package. Even when $10 billion was allocated to tribal nations, distribution was held up for months, withholding critical aid for personal protective equipment, financial aid and testing. "This administration's record is one of repeated failures for Native communities," said Sen. Tom Udall, vice chairman of the Senate Committee on Indian Affairs, in a statement. "The truth is the White House is actively undermining Tribal sovereignty across the country and mishandling a once-in-a-century pandemic that is disproportionately hurting Native communities." [...]Many of the decisions over the last four years will have a lasting impact on Indian Country no matter how quickly the new Biden/Harris administration works to reverse them:The border wall: What started as a campaign-rally promise has resulted in 423 miles of steel walls cutting through the borderlands landscape. The vast majority of those miles already had some kind of barrier, but those newly-added came at a high cost. In Guadalupe Canyon, Arizona, a five-mile stretch that required blasting through rock cost $41 million per mile. Tribal nations like the Tohono O'odham have been clear about their opposition to the construction, which has damaged important natural and cultural sites with no consultation process. "The Trump administration's reckless disregard for our religious and constitutional rights is embodied in the dynamite and bulldozers now rumbling through our original homelands," wrote Tohono O'odham Nation Chairman Ned Norris Jr. in High Country News.Tribal lands: Although Trump signed two bills that federally recognized a total of seven tribal nations, his Interior Department also withdrew a legal opinion meant to help tribes regain ancestral lands, and sought to disestablish reservation lands of the Mashpee Wampanoag Tribe. A federal judge called the legal memorandum written by Interior in Mashpee's case "incomprehensible" and described it as "one of the worst written documents I've ever read from any government agency." Posted by orrinj at 12:00 AM...AND CHEAPER...:Geothermal energy, the forgotten renewable, has finally arrived (Michael J. Coren, 12/20/20, Quartz)Jason Czapla is walking across a former lake bed in the middle of southern California. The ground simmers at our feet as little mud volcanoes disgorge piles of hot, sulfurous muck. The Salton Sea glitters in the distance, beckoning as the morning temperature approaches 106 degrees Fahrenheit.Everything about this place, around a hundred miles from the Mexican border, feels like it's about to combust. But for Czapla, a former petroleum engineer, there are few places he'd rather be."It's the perfect storm in terms of a renewable energy project," says the chief engineer for Controlled Thermal Resources, wearing a white polo shirt and dark sports glasses that hide the excitement in his blue eyes. "This is the best resource in the world."Czapla is in charge of a 7,380-acre plot owned by Controlled Thermal Resources (CTR). It's a barren scrap of desert that ends abruptly in the great saline sea east of San Diego. For a geothermal engineer, it's paradise.Two kilometers below the surface lies a mineral-rich cauldron of hot water where temperatures can exceed 390°C. As the Salton Sea recedes, opportunities to turn that into energy and profits are emerging. If California approves its permit, CTR will start operating its Hell's Kitchen Lithium and Power project in 2023, one of the first new US geothermal power plants in almost a decade.And it almost certainly will not be the last. Although the shores of the Salton Sea already hosts 10 geothermal plants--most of them built in the 1980s--geology, politics, and energy demand have aligned to make Hell's Kitchen, and projects like it, a hot investment once again.Over the last decade, California has poured billions of dollars into its renewable energy goals. It has scaled up wind and solar power beyond expectation, while virtually ignoring geothermal plants despite possessing the most productive geothermal fields in the US. Today, wind and solar provide more than 86% of California's renewable capacity, while geothermal sources provide virtually the same amount as two decades ago.But in a climate constrained world, geothermal, the "forgotten renewable," is getting a second chance. Posted by orrinj at 10:43 AMCITIES WERE A MISTAKE:Hello, free money for all: 'Bye-bye,' big-city life as we know it, according to this 'outrageous prediction' (Shawn Langlois, 12/10/20, Market Watch)"UBI leads to a seismic rebalancing of the forces and structures within society, and how they apply geographically. Big cities have been the chief drivers of job growth for generations," Van-Petersen said. "But in the new era of UBI, tech-driven job redundancies, and frequent work-from-home [periods] made more normal by COVID-19, city office real estate is suddenly faced with 100% or worse overcapacity. Commercial office property values are crushed, together with the commercial real estate containing restaurants and shops aimed at servicing commuting worker drones."In other words, there's a potential overhaul of society, as attitudes toward work/life balance shift and some younger generations embrace the suburbs and the communities where they grew up."Meanwhile, the professionals and the marginal workers in big cities also begin to leave, as job opportunities dry up and the quality of life in small, over-priced apartments in higher crime neighborhoods loses its appeal," Van-Petersen wrote.Disney World is the city of the future. Posted by orrinj at 7:17 AMNOT HAVING AN OFFICE TO GO TO:Covid Is Accelerating the Exodus From New York and California to Cheaper States (Misyrlena Egkolfopoulou, December 14, 2020, Bloomberg)Residents of New York City and the San Francisco Bay Area have long tolerated eye-watering expenses, cramped apartments and other disadvantages because of the access to more jobs, arts, culture and entertainment. Until the pandemic hit, that is. Now, the experience of being locked down at home and working remotely is driving them to make decisions faster than they otherwise would have, and leave their social and professional circles behind for a better quality of life elsewhere.Austin -- where podcast host Rogan moved to from California -- gained the most people between April and October this year, followed by Phoenix, Nashville and Tampa, according to data on 47 metropolitan areas analyzed by LinkedIn. At the same time, the San Francisco Bay Area and New York City lost people."Moving from a highly dense area to a less dense area allows people to potentially really enjoy some of their hobbies," said Josh Mungavin, a wealth manager at Evensky Katz. "Now people can chase their passions." Posted by orrinj at 11:16 AM...AND CHEAPER...:Princeton University Study Finds the Low-Carbon Future is a Low-Cost Future (NADER SOBHANI, DECEMBER 18, 2020, Niskanen)To reduce net greenhouse gas emissions to zero, the U.S. will need to invest in and build new energy infrastructure at an unprecedented scale over the next three decades. This is one of the conclusions of a new Princeton University analysis, which examines granular scenarios for how the country could reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. While the required scale of infrastructure build-out and technology deployment is significant, the study's findings show it is technically feasible and economically affordable.That last point-that a net-zero economy will be affordable-is critical. The energy transition cost is frequently cited as a reason to be wary of carbon prices, regulations, or climate action generally. But the idea that a modern and productive economy can run without emitting greenhouse gases is evolving from an obscure notion to something that rigorous analysis can show will be affordable. This study shows, along with less detailed precursors, that a full transition to net-zero would not dramatically increase the cost of energy for the economy.The researchers modeled five different pathways to achieve net-zero GHG emissions by midcentury, each with varying levels of renewable energy deployment, building and vehicle electrification, biomass, nuclear energy, and carbon capture and storage technologies. For each scenario, they evaluated the infrastructure and fuel demands that would meet consumer demand for electricity and transportation, and maintain industrial production but eliminate emissions from the economy. Even as the researchers surveyed a wide variety of scenarios, they found that the costs of the transition to net-zero were small.You can't afford not to do it. Posted by orrinj at 9:10 AMIT ENDED IN 1919:The End of the Wilsonian Era: Why Liberal Internationalism Failed (Walter Russell Mead, January/February 2021, Foreign Affairs)One hundred years after the U.S. Senate humiliated President Woodrow Wilson by rejecting the Treaty of Versailles, Princeton University, which Wilson led as its president before launching his political career, struck his name from its famous school of international affairs. As "cancellations" go, this one is at least arguably deserved. Wilson was an egregious racist even by the standards of his time, and the man behind the persecution of his own political opponents and the abuses of the first Red Scare has been celebrated for far too long and far too uncritically.But however problematic Wilson's personal views and domestic policies were, as a statesman and ideologist, he must be counted among the most influential makers of the modern world. He was not a particularly original thinker. More than a century before Wilson proposed the League of Nations, Tsar Alexander I of Russia had alarmed his fellow rulers at the Congress of Vienna by articulating a similar vision: an international system that would rest on a moral consensus upheld by a concert of powers that would operate from a shared set of ideas about legitimate sovereignty. By Wilson's time, moreover, the belief that democratic institutions contributed to international peace whereas absolute monarchies were inherently warlike and unstable was almost a commonplace observation among educated Americans and Britons. Wilson's contribution was to synthesize those ideas into a concrete program for a rules-based order grounded in a set of international institutions.Even that simple description depicts how his vision was stillborn. An inveterate racist, he happily traded the legitimate sovereignty--that held by free peoples who determine the course of their own nation--of Europe's colonies for his League, which we never joined and which never worked even in later incarnations. Recall that when W issued the most forthright summons ever to the UN to enforce its own rules and rulings it failed to do so and America had to take on the task instead. Of course, the reason Saddam existed was because Wilson had betrayed the Arab world in the first place. His legacy was a century of wars on behalf of the American values he failed to vindicate when he had the opportunity. Posted by orrinj at 8:47 AMTHE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ILHAN AND DONALD:2 Jewish Wisconsin judges rejected a Trump case. Now anti-Semites are after them (JTA and TOI , 12/18/20)Two Wisconsin Supreme Court justices have received a torrent of misogynistic and anti-Semitic messages in the days after they denounced -- and then voted to reject -- an attempt by US President Donald Trump's lawyers to invalidate hundreds of thousands of votes in their state.Some people think Israel ought to grant Palestinians full human rights. The Right calls us anti-Semites. Some people oppose Judaism and Islam. They call themselves Nationalists. Posted by orrinj at 5:51 PM...AND CHEAPER...:Floating 'mini-nukes' could power countries by 2025, says startup (Jillian Ambrose, 17 Dec 2020, The Guardian)Floating barges fitted with advanced nuclear reactors could begin powering developing nations by the mid-2020s, according to a Danish startup company.Seaborg Technologies believes it can make cheap nuclear electricity a viable alternative to fossil fuels across the developing world as soon as 2025.Its seaborne "mini-nukes" have been designed for countries that lack the energy grid infrastructure to develop utility-scale renewable energy projects, many of which go on to use gas, diesel and coal plants instead. Posted by orrinj at 5:05 PMYOUR NEXT CAR WILL BE A VOLT:Low-carbon economic recovery a better path for Michigan (Jennifer Granholm, 11/07/20, Detroit News)Cambridge Econometrics and the We Mean Business coalition found that a low-carbon recovery plan boosts income, employment and GDP more so than broad economic recovery measures alone, while significantly reducing emissions. The GDP returns from low-carbon measures are projected to be 1.5 times greater than a baseline stimulus measure.Investing in a low-carbon economy will ensure that Michigan remains a leader in the auto industry. The report finds that by 2025, a low-carbon recovery plan could create 1.7 million new jobs in the U.S. State automakers like Ford and General Motors are producing a greater number of EVs, but policy incentives are needed to ensure that the cost-saving and environmental benefits are available to everyone.It's not just a matter of forecasting future impacts. Climate action is already working for the people and economy of Michigan. An E2 report -- "Clean Jobs, Better Jobs" -- found that the median hourly wage of clean energy jobs in Michigan is 6.8% higher than the statewide median for all occupations, and that clean energy jobs are more likely to come with health and retirement benefits. These are the types of jobs we need to support as we look to shape a better future.Over a dozen major businesses operating in this state agree that a low-carbon recovery is the best choice for Michigan. Just last month these companies, including Kellogg's, General Mills, Schneider Electric and Nestle, asked Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to enact statewide climate mitigation strategies and invest in clean energy infrastructure. At the same time, the companies reaffirmed their commitment to reducing their own emissions and supporting the growing demand for clean energy.Other Michigan-based companies like Ford, General Motors and Whirlpool are also doing their part in setting bold targets to address climate change. Earlier this year, Ford committed to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. These companies represent the backbone of the U.S. economy and know that acting on climate change is good business sense. However, the private sector needs greater support and political will from our policymakers to help us fully realize the potential of a zero-carbon future. Posted by orrinj at 5:05 PMYOUR NEXT CAR WILL BE A VOLT:Low-carbon economic recovery a better path for Michigan (Jennifer Granholm, 11/07/20, Detroit News)Cambridge Econometrics and the We Mean Business coalition found that a low-carbon recovery plan boosts income, employment and GDP more so than broad economic recovery measures alone, while significantly reducing emissions. The GDP returns from low-carbon measures are projected to be 1.5 times greater than a baseline stimulus measure.Investing in a low-carbon economy will ensure that Michigan remains a leader in the auto industry. The report finds that by 2025, a low-carbon recovery plan could create 1.7 million new jobs in the U.S. State automakers like Ford and General Motors are producing a greater number of EVs, but policy incentives are needed to ensure that the cost-saving and environmental benefits are available to everyone.It's not just a matter of forecasting future impacts. Climate action is already working for the people and economy of Michigan. An E2 report -- "Clean Jobs, Better Jobs" -- found that the median hourly wage of clean energy jobs in Michigan is 6.8% higher than the statewide median for all occupations, and that clean energy jobs are more likely to come with health and retirement benefits. These are the types of jobs we need to support as we look to shape a better future.Over a dozen major businesses operating in this state agree that a low-carbon recovery is the best choice for Michigan. Just last month these companies, including Kellogg's, General Mills, Schneider Electric and Nestle, asked Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to enact statewide climate mitigation strategies and invest in clean energy infrastructure. At the same time, the companies reaffirmed their commitment to reducing their own emissions and supporting the growing demand for clean energy.Other Michigan-based companies like Ford, General Motors and Whirlpool are also doing their part in setting bold targets to address climate change. Earlier this year, Ford committed to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. These companies represent the backbone of the U.S. economy and know that acting on climate change is good business sense. However, the private sector needs greater support and political will from our policymakers to help us fully realize the potential of a zero-carbon future. Posted by orrinj at 11:59 AMIT'S A DEFLATIONARY EPOCH:Worried About Inflation After Covid? Don't Be (Tyler Cowen, December 17, 2020, Bloomberg)Does the world need to fear inflation again? The global supply of money has been rising at a rapid clip, with the broader measure increasing by more than 20% last year in the U.S. alone. With an economic recovery and boom likely to follow the distribution of vaccines, many people are worried that all this cash will lead to higher prices.I have some reassuring news (albeit with caveats): It is not likely that the next major macroeconomic problem will be inflation.Cash does not drive inflation, costs do, and they've been falling for 30 years with no end in sight. Posted by orrinj at 9:36 AMWE ARE ALL THIRD WAY:Conservative principles are powering the fight against climate change (John Flesher, 12/17/20, CapX)The Paris Agreement has sparked a transformation in the cost and competitiveness of low and zero-carbon solutions across the world economy, and this transformation is likely to get even faster over the next decade. Research from global consultancy Systemiq has found that, whilst virtually none of these technologies and business models were able to compete economically as recently as 2015, they are now competitive in sectors making up around a quarter of global CO2 emissions and projected to shoot up to be competitive in those comprising 70% of emissions by 2030.What does this mean in practice? 35 million net new jobs for a start. And beyond that, growing competitiveness means falling costs and rising investment. Take solar power, for example: long derided as expensive and ineffective, the price of solar-generated electricity has plummeted by 89% in the last decade to become the cheapest form of power generation at a time when established fuels like coal are on the path to obsolescence.The same is true of newer technologies like electric cars. What looked like a costly and inconvenient choice for most motorists even a couple of years ago will soon reach upfront price parity with diesel cars, with a greater range of models available and performance improving all the time.This rapid change hasn't happened by accident, and the fact that it has is a major vindication of conservative approaches. Whilst government action has been important in creating frameworks and stimulating private investment, it is the free market that is delivering these changes quickly and efficiently, abandoning fossil fuels and financing the technologies of the future. When huge companies like BP, Pepsi and Apple pledge to achieve net zero emissions, they aren't doing it merely out of obligation to the environment, but because it makes sound business sense.

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