Foundation

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Web Name: Foundation

WebSite: http://www.foundationwebsite.org

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Internet website http://www.foundationwebsite.org,updated 6 April 2020. Books and articles on Planetary Management and other topics from Tucson, Arizona.Copyright © 1999-2020 JosephGeorge Caldwell. All rights reserved. Permission to make personalcopies for noncommercial use granted. Anything on this website may becopied or reposted for noncommercial use, with attribution (including the full name Joseph George Caldwell and the website URLhttp://www.foundationwebsite.org). Table ofContents:Planetary Management (Energy / Environment /Population / Politics)Statistics and Demography: Articles, Papers, Briefings,Reports and CoursesStatistical Methods for Monitoring and Evaluation: A Comprehensive Survey CourseMathematical ForecastingDemography: Cohort-Component Populations and SyntheticEstimationOptimization and Game Theory; Constrained Optimization;Optimal Allocation of Resources; Determination of Optimal StrategiesEconomics; Tax Policy AnalysisItems on East TimorMiscellaneous ArticlesMusicBridgeItems on FreemasonryNew Age / Spirituality / Mysticism / Prophecy / Eschatology (EndTimes)Miscellaneous / Personal Interest / PersonalSample RecordingsContactPlanetary Management (Energy / Environment / Population / Politics)Planetary Management (Energy / Environment / Population / Politics);mostly chronologicalPlanetary ManagementThe name of this website derives from Isaac Asimov's Foundation.Observation. Earth is undergoing the sixth mass planetary species extinction (see Richard Leakey's and Roger Lewin's book,The Sixth Extinction). Unlike earlier mass species extinctions, the current mass species extinction is being caused entirely by human activity. The rate of planetary species extinction is directly proportional to the total amount of industrial production, which is directly proportional to the planetary human population times the average rate of production (or rate of consumption or standard of living) per person. All nations strive to increase industrial production (or consumption or standard of living) for their people. Many nations, such as the US, strive for increased population ( a large population is a king's glory ). Given the human propensity for industrial production (and, in general, growth in all things), the only way to reduce the rate of planetary species extinction is to reduce the global human population. The only known level of global human population that lived in harmony (balance, slowly changing equilibrium) with the biosphere was a few million people.Ergo: In order for the mass planetary species extinction to cease, it appears that the planetary human population must decline to a few million people.Mission Statement. At the end of the Petroleum Age, the human population of Earth will fall to a few million -- the number sustainable by the current flux of solar energy. It appears quite possible that large-scale economic activity may soon destroy the ecological balance of the biosphere in which the human species evolved and on which it is dependent for its continued survival. The Foundation website is committed to trying to avert this human-caused destruction of a human-friendly biosphere and the consequent extinction of mankind. It is committed to the establishment of a long-term-sustainable double nickel human population consisting of five million spatially concentrated high-tech people and five million spatially dispersed hunter-gatherers. The purpose of the high-tech population is to assure that the global population of Earth is limited to a total of ten million people (a level that is known to have lived in harmony with the biosphere for millions of years). The purpose of the hunter-gatherer population is to assure that a local catastrophic event does not cause the extinction of mankind.Planetary ManagementBlogRecent PostingsNew Posting: Planetary Management PrinciplesPrinciples and guidelines for managing a planet in such a way as to achieve the goal of accomplishing a long-term-sustainable human population living in harmony with the rest of the biosphere. NEW Planetary Management Principles, Rules and Regulations. Guidelines for managing a minimal regret planetary management system, consisting of a single-nation industrial population of five million and a globally distributed hunter-gatherer population of five million. (9 September 2018)Click here to view htm version of guidelines,here for pdf version.New Posting: World Population under Long-Term-Sustainable Planetary Management NEW The files below indicate the populations of the world's countries under a long-term-sustainable system of planetary management.The population projections presented in the following files are based on methodology presented in the book, Can America Survive? and were constructed using the DESTINY demographic analysis system (both available from this website). A minimal regret planetary management system consists of a single-nation industrial population of five million and a globally distributed hunter-gatherer population of five million. The data presented in the below files can be used to estimate the size and distribution of human population surviving global nuclear war. If it is assumed, for example, that Russia prevails in global nuclear war, then the population of Russia would be between five million (the minimal-regret size) and 73 million (the number expected to survive a large-scale nuclear war), and the population of the rest of the world would be five million (the hunter-gatherer density). (Posted 3 September 2018; previously published in 2000, 2005.)Population profile, worldPopulation analysis, worldPopulation profile, all countriesPopulation analysis, all countriesPopulation profile, USA Population Analysis, USAPopulation profile, RussiaPopulation Analysis, RussiaPopulation profile, CanadaPopulation analysis, CanadaNew Posting: TerraNova NEW A radio play about overpopulation and nuclear war.Synopsis: This radio play addresses the issues of human overpopulation and global nuclear war. The play identifies reasons why global nuclear war is likely to happen and considers a scenario in which Russia prevails after the war. Scenes 1-3 describe a context in which Russia has motive, means and opportunity to initiate, wage and win a global nuclear war. Scene 4 discusses goals and objectives associated with global nuclear war and describes strategic considerations for such a war. Scenes 5 and 6 describe tactical operations in global nuclear war. Scene 7 describes planetary management operations two decades following the war and Scene 8 describes a typical domestic scene 500 years following the war. (Scenes 7 and 8 are the same as Scenes 11 and 12 of the radio play, The Planet Master.)NEW TerraNova This radio play addresses the issues of overpopulation and nuclear war. (30 September 2018).Click here for link to Amazon edition.Click here to view htm version of a sample,here for pdf version.New Posting: The Planet Master NEW A radio play about overpopulation and nuclear war.Synopsis. This radio play addresses the issues of human overpopulation and global nuclear war. The play describes the reasons why global nuclear war is likely to happen and considers a scenario in which Russia prevails after the war. Scene 1 describes the destruction to the biosphere that is being caused by large human numbers and industrial production. Scene 2 is a meeting with the Russian President, Prime Minister, and ministers of three portfolios – economic development, natural resources and environmental protection, and defense – in preparation for an annual presentation to Russia’s Duma. Scene 3 describes the state of Russia’s economy, and Scene 4 describes the state of its natural resources and environment. Scene 5 describes the nature and likelihood of nuclear war. Scene 6 describes goals, decision criteria, and strategy related to nuclear war. Scene 7 describes tactics for waging nuclear war. Scene 8 describes possibilities that might arise when access to important situational information is lost during nuclear war. Scene 9 describes implications of Russian goals and decision criteria, including discussion of how a small nuclear conflict could escalate to a large-scale one, and how Russia might prevail in such a war and establish a long-term-sustainable planetary management system. Scene 10 discusses long-term-sustainable population levels. Scene 11 discusses the state of the world twenty years after global nuclear war and Scene 12 describes an evening somewhere on the North American Great Plains, 500 years after the war.NEW The Planet Master This radio play addresses the issues of overpopulation and nuclear war. (29 July 2018).Click here for link to Amazon edition.Click here to view htm version of a sample,here for pdf version.New Posting: Reasons Why Nuclear War Is InevitableA list of reasons why the risk of nuclear war is increasing, and the occurrence of nuclear war is inevitable. NEW Reasons Why Nuclear War Is Inevitable. A large number of factors are working to increase the likelihood of occurrence of nuclear war. This piece identifies those factors and lists subfactors associated with them. (18 August 2018).Click here to view htm version of report,here for pdf version.New Posting: Is Nuclear War Survivable?Is nuclear war survivable, and, if so, how? NEW Is Nuclear War Survivable? A large-scale nuclear war could cause the extinction of mankind. This paper explores the issue of whether nuclear war can be survived, and identifies a strategy for doing so.(15 May 2018).Click here to view htm version of report,here for pdf version.New Posting: Free Health Care!Caldwell Health Plan: Free Basic Health Care NEW A New Health-Care System for America: Free Basic Health Care The United States health-care system is a disaster. This paper describes a new approach to delivery of health-care services, which will cost a fraction of the current amount and deliver more appropriate care. Specifically, I propose to move away from a national health-care system based on insurance, and establish a national health-care system based on the provision of free basic health care through neighborhood clinics and regional hospitals. (17 July 2017)Click here to view htm version of report,here for pdf version.Slide presentation: Click here for pptx version, here for pdf version.New Posting: Free Health Care!New Posting: Review of Upheaval by Jared DiamondReview of Upheaval by Jared DiamondClick here to view htm version,here for pdf version.Older PostingsDonald Trump Has Raised the Likelihood of a Near-Term Global Nuclear War. Donald Trump has called (22 December 2016) for an expansion of the US nuclear warfare capability. The consensus appears to be that his comments have increased the likelihood of nuclear war, or made it likely that such a war will occur sooner.I am an expert on global nuclear warfare and ballistic missile defense. My bookCan America Survive? describes several exemplar global-nuclear-warfare attacks. If a global nuclear war were to occur, the human-caused sixth mass species extinction would end. The US and China would likely not survive, but Russia might. (Reasons why the US would likely not survive but Russia might are discussed in my book, The Late Great United States.)Complex societies do not decline gracefully; they collapse catastrophically. (See Joseph A. Tainter's book,The Collapse of Complex Societies.) As long as the Petroleum Age continues, the human population decline can be held off, and there is no strong incentive for global nuclear war. Global nuclear war will likely occur as the Petroleum Age ends and nations compete for shrinking energy resources. Many people pray that global nuclear war does not occur. It is very likely to occur. The only real uncertainty is when.Since an estimated thirty thousand species are made extinct each year because of human industrial activity, the sooner this activity ends, the sooner the Sixth Extinction will end, the more species will remain, and the higher the likelihood of long-term human survival. Our present high-population civilization is crucially dependent on massive amounts of energy, and it will collapse as the energy runs out. Recurrent solar energy and nuclear energy cannot replace the high levels of petroleum energy. When petroleum reserves exhaust, human population will decline (whether a global nuclear war occurs or not).With Respect to the Long-Term Survival of Mankind, if Global Nuclear War Is to Occur, then Sooner Is Better than Later. The longer the petroleum era lasts, the greater the damage to the biosphere, and the greater the chance of human extinction. The only thing that really matters in the long term is the ecological state of the planet when the global industrial era comes to an end, and the mass extinction ends. As long as high human population levels continue, the mass species extinction continues. From the viewpoint of long-term survival of mankind, if global nuclear warfare does occur, then sooner is definitely better than later.Donald Trump May Have Substantially Increased the Likelihood of the Long-Term Survival of Mankind. By his pronouncements on nuclear warfare, Donald Trump may or may not have raised the likelihood of an eventual global nuclear war. The likelihood of an eventual global nuclear war is already very high, and it is unlikely that his statements could change it much. It would appear, however, that he may very well have made a significant change in the timing of that war. He has likely moved the occurrence of that war much closer. By doing so, he may well bring about an early end to the Sixth Extinction, and he may well have significantly increased the likelihood of the long-term survival of mankind.Defense for a Ladder-Down Nuclear Attack. In my piece,A Winning Strategy for National Missile Defense (NMD) (also cited as An open letter to the President of the United States), 20 May 2000, I described a defense for a nuclear ladder-down attack. A ladder-down attack is one for which the attacker neutralizes our missile defense capability by detonating a nuclear weapon in space, thereby generating a massive electromagnetic pulse (EMP), knocking out electronic systems (such as tracking and guidance radars). The defense for a ladder-down attack is to destroy all launching missiles as they are fired, before they reach space (where, in large numbers and with penetration aids, they are virtually impossible to destroy).JosephGeorge Caldwell's Predictions for 2010 (13 November2009)Click here to view. (Here for pdf version.)(Note: To access pdf files, you may need an Adobe Acrobat PDF reader (available free fromhttp://www.adobe.com/products/acrobat/readermain.html).)Plan C 1.0:Mobilizing to Save the Biosphere (15 November 2009, modified 4December 2009)Click hereto view. (Here for pdfversion.)The LateGreat United States: The Decline and Fall of the United States of America An essay on thedemise of the United States. (23 March 2008, revised 17 December 2008)Click here to view. (Here for pdf version.)Can America Survive?The thesis of this book is that when fossil-fuel reserves deplete in a fewyears, the global human population of Earth will drop to about 500 million peopleor less -- a small fraction of the current six billion. The future is oneof global ethnic war and the end of the modern industrialized world. Thebook examines a minimal regret population strategy that showspromise as a sustainable, environmentally sound basis for worldpopulation. This population consists of a single industrialized nation offive million people and a hunter-gatherer population of five million. (6 June 1999, minor updates 21 November 2002 (mainlyrepairing of broken hyperlinks).)Click here to view text of book in htm format, with links to figures and tables (1.8 megabyte file).Click here to view text of book in pdf format (figures and tables not included, 0.8 MB file).Abbreviated (text-only) version,htm format, pdf format.Thematic outline, htm format, pdf format.Summary, htm format,pdf format.Some observations on the state of the world's environment, and the prospects for the future, htm format, pdf format.Click here to view additional supplementary material.Click hereto see links to other related web sites. (Updated 14 November 2016.)Notes onImmigration Myview is that immigration policy should be guided by population policy, and thatpopulation policy should be designed to promote the long-term survival of thebiosphere and the human race. Over the years, I have written a number ofnotes and articles on immigration. They are scattered throughout thiswebsite, and assembled here for convenience, now that the US immigration debateis heating up. . (22 April 2013).Click here for viewing options.The OmegaProject... to facilitate the establishment of an ecologically sustainable New WorldOrder. (11 February 2002, updated 10 September 2002.)Click here for a project summary. (Here for pdf version.)The End ofthe World (9 February 2003, updated 6 March 2003.)Click here to view the article. (Here for pdf version.)Presentationslides (Microsoft PowerPoint) click here.The preceding is an update of anarticle published 26 October 2000 (click here for htm,here for pdf, here forpresentation slides.)Strategyfor global domination and planetary management. Draft strategy for implementinga minimal-regret human population on Earth. (28 April 2002, updated 1 May 2002.)Click hereto view the article. (Here for pdf version.)A BriefGuide to Planetary Management.This document provides a high-level guide to planetary management forEarth. (8 September 2002, updated 10 September 2002.)Click hereto view the guide. (Here for pdf version.)OnProphecy, Catastrophe Theory, Globalization and The Omega Project. (25 November 2002, updated 5 December 2002.)Click hereto view the article. (Here for pdfversion.)OnMarxism, Synarchy, Plato's Republic, and The Omega Project. (13 January 2003, updated 14 January 2003.)Click hereto view the article. (Here for pdf version.)AlternativeParadigms for Planetary Management. (January 2003.)Click here to view the article. (Here for pdf version.)Call forAction: Proposal to Establish a Planetary Science / Planetary ManagementDepartment at Major Universities(16 January 2003.)Click here for details. (Here for pdf version.)Proposal toEstablish a Planetary Management Institute (Research on Science, Religion andPolitics, with Respect to Promoting the Quality of Human Life (29 December 2006.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdfversion.)On ThomHartmann and The Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight. A summary of Hartmann's views,comparison to my own, and discussion of how Hartmann's desires for the planetcan be realized by a synarchic government of a minimal-regret population.(29 April 2003, updated 6 May 2003.)Click here to view the article. (Here for pdf version.)Handbook ofPlanetary Management (6 June 2003; updated 6 March 2010.)Click here to view the handbook. (Here for pdfversion.)On theEquity of a Synarchic Minimal-Regret Population.; (7 July 2003.)Click hereto view the article. (Here for pdf version.)OnPopulation Control of a Synarchic Minimal-Regret Population. (8 July 2003.)Click here to view the article. (Here for pdf version.)On Synarchy(Synarchism, Sinarquismo, Synarquismo, Sinarchismo, Synarchismo, Sinarchie,Synarchie, Sinarchia, Synarchía, Sinarquia, Synarquia, Sinarkia, Synarkia;Global Synarchist Movement).(13 July 2003,updated 27 July 2003;title updated 15 April 2009.)Click hereto view the article. (Here for pdfversion.)On Democracyas a Basis for Planetary Management. (14 July 2003, updated 16 July 2003.)Click here to view the article. (Here for pdf version.)On RichardHeinberg and The Party's Over.A review of Heinberg's new book, including comments relating to The Omega Project.An excellent description of the energy situation on present-day Earth,recommended for anyone who want an up-to-date, comprehensive, and easy-to-readassessment. (3 August 2003.)Click hereto view the article. (Here for pdfversion.)What OilCan Do to Tiny States -- and Big Ones, Too! (3 February 2003.)Click here to view the article. (Here for pdf version.)TheWorld Does Not Need More Fossil Fuel, or Alternative Energy Sources to ReplaceIt (5 February 2003.)Click here to view the article. (Here for pdf version.)Hubris (5 February 2003.)Click hereto view the article. (Here for pdf version.)On aRemark by Mikhail Gorbachev on American Consumerism (18 March 2003.)Click here to view the article. (Here for pdf version.)Is America Fascist? Does it Matter?.(5 August 2003, updated 12 August 2003, 11 May 2008.)Click here to view the article. (Here for pdf version.)It's theOil, Stupid! (Hubbert's Curve and World War III). (27 August 2003, updated 8 November 2003, graphics scalecorrected 22 Feb 2004>,Table 2 scale corrected 13 May 2004.)Click hereto view the article. (Here for pdf version.)Synarchy:The Battle for Planet Earth, Book 1. A novel by J G Caldwell (28 January 2004, updated 22 February 2004.)Click hereto download the book in .htm format. (Here for.pdf version.) Alternative Futures graphic: htm pdfPlanetaryManagement Institute Statementof Vision, Mission, Goals and Objectives (13 December 2004.)Click hereto view. (Here for pdf version.)MX...the little book that helped destroy a giant missile system. MX... a spy novel that,although written in 1978, has much relevance today. (Posted 1 September 2002.)Click herefor viewing options.A WinningStrategy for National Missile Defense (NMD). This open letter to the USPresident describes how a National Missile Defense system can work. (20May 2000.)Click hereto view the letter. (Here for pdf version.)OnSaving the Environment, and the Inevitability of Global War. This article discusses thelikelihood of global war and how it relates to the global environmentalproblem. The thesis of the article is that the Earth's environmental problemwill continue to worsen until global war occurs. (8 May 2001.)Click here to view the article. (Here for pdf version.)WhySerious Nuclear War Must Be Global in Scope. This article explains whyNational Missile Defense (NMD) will motivate larger nuclear weapon stockpilesand why, if nuclear war occurs, it will be global in scope. (23 May2001.)Click here to view the article. (Here for pdf version.)On War andPeace. Article on the necessity of war for ensuring the health of the human speciesand the biosphere. (4 August 2002, updated 28 August 2002.)Click here to view the article. (Here for pdf version.)How to Winthe War in Iraq:An Open Letter to President George W. Bush (8 May 2004,expanded 12 May 2004.)Click here to view the letter. (Here for pdf version.)A charge oftreason against the President of the United States An open letter toPresident George W. Bush (1 December 2004.)Click here to view. (Here for pdf version.)OtherPolitics (American Independence Movement, Preparation Party) While the central political focus of the Foundation website is the international (planetary) level, it is recognized that human beings are affected by politics at all levels: international, national, state and local. With respect to the national level (the United States), my views are as presented in the following documents. (Originally published September 11, 2001; updated May 31, 2016 (minor edits, such as hypertext links).)The American Independence MovementFounded February 20, 2001, at Charlotte, North Carolina, USA Platform: A strong military, economic self-sufficiency, political and social stability, an independent foreign policy, and preservation of the global natural environment.Mission: To save the planet's environment and biodiversity from the destruction being caused by large human population and industrial activity; to increase the likelihood of the long-term survival of mankind; to enhance the long-term security of the United States; and to prepare its citizens for survival in the post-industrial era.Click here for platform. (Here for pdf version.)Click here for Founder Message. (Here for pdf version.)Click here for Founder Bio. (Here for pdf version.)The Preparation Party (affiliated with the American Independence Movement)Founded August 15, 2009, at Spartanburg, South Carolina, USAMission: The goal of the Preparation Party is to prepare for that development, and promote the likelihood that a fragment of the United States survive, after its coming collapse. The ultimate purpose of promoting this survival is to promote the establishment of a long-term-survivable planetary management system.Clickhere for platform. (Here for pdf version.)StatisticsStatistics and Demography: Articles, Papers, Briefings, Reports andCourses NEWStatistical Methods for Monitoring and Evaluation: A Comprehensive Survey Course(Available only in .pdf format; .htm version is not available since it fails to show complex formulas reliably. The following documents are notes intended to accompany lectures. Some of the documents contain many figures, others do not. Updated 9 November 2016) Days 1 2: SampleSurvey Design and Analysis (Descriptive Surveys, Design-Based Analysis for Monitoring). Click here. Day 3: Review of Statistical Inference (review of theory needed as background for other topics). Click here. Days 4 5: Causal Inference and Matching. Click here. Days 6 7: Statistical Design and Analysis for Evaluation (Analytical Surveys, Model-Assisted Analysis for Impact Evaluation). Click here.Sample Survey Design for Impact Evaluation (One-Page Summary). Click here. (25 January 2018) SampleSurvey Design for Evaluation (article, not lecture notes).Click here. (20 March 2009, updated 19 April 2010) Day 8: Sample Size Determination (Precision and Power Analysis, ex ante (ex post power analysis covered in analysis)). Click here. Day 9: Missing Data. Click here. Day 10: Small Area Estimation. Click here. Day 11: Continuous Multivariate Analysis. Click here. Day 12: Time Series Analysis. Click here Click here for briefing on univariate time series analysis, here for a version of the TIMES Box-Jenkins Forecasting System Technical Reference Manual. Day 13: Demographic Analysis. Click here Examples of Reports on Impact EvaluationThe goal of causal inference is to estimate causal effects, or the magnitude of changes resulting in one variable (an effect variable, or output variable) when changes are made in another variable (a causal variable, or input variable), over a population of interest. In a laboratory setting, estimation of causal effects can be based on a designed experiment, where experimental units are randomly selected from the population of interest, experimental conditions (experimental conditions, levels of treatment variables) are randomly assigned to the selected experimental units, and causal effects are estimated from the experimental data. For estimation of program impact for social and economic programs, it may not be possible or feasible to implement the controlled randomization required by a designed experiment. In such cases, it is necessary to take into account how experimental units are selected, and how treatment levels are assigned to them. If the probability of selection is nonzero for all members of the population and can be estimated, then it is possible to obtain sound (unbiased, consistent) estimates of causal effects. Alternative approaches are available for doing this. Some approaches focus on variables that affect selection; some approaches focus on variables that affect outcome; and some approaches focus on variables that affect both selection and outcome. The following reports illustrate several of these approaches.1. Final Report (Revised), Impact Evaluation of the Farmer Training and Development Activity in Honduras, NORC at the University of Chicago (Chicago, IL and Bethesda, MD), Millennium Challenge Corporation, Washington, DC, November 26, 2013.docxpdf2. Final Report (Revised), Impact Evaluation of the Transportation Project in Honduras, NORC at the University of Chicago (Chicago, IL and Bethesda, MD), Millennium Challenge Corporation, Washington, DC, December 20, 2013.docxpdf Addendum: doc pdfVista'sApproach to Evaluation.Proposal input. (11 September 2006)Click here to view the article. (Here for pdf version.)Vista'sApproach to Sample Survey Design.Proposal input. (11 September 2006)Click here to view the article. (Here for pdf version.)Approach toManagement Information System Design. Proposal input. (31January 2007)Click here to view the article. (Here for pdf version.)ReceiverOperating Characteristic Graph.Informal briefing (in Microsoft PowerPoint). (27 February 2007)Click here to view the presentation.CourseFlyers.Some courses given, some not. (3 April 2007.)SampleSurvey1 SampleSurvey2 SampSurvArl1SampSurvArl2 SampSurvArling1 SampSurvArling2 SampSurvSF1 SampSurvSF2MiscellaneousFlyers.Courses advertised, but not given (insufficient enrollment). (3 April2007.)Data1Data2 Data3Data4 EvalRes1EvalRes2 SocInd1SocInd2 TimeSer1 TimeSer2Computerprogram for determining sample size. This computer program estimates sample sizes for a variety of sample survey designs. The program contains descriptive information on how to use it. Sample sizes are determined for descriptive surveys based on analysis of the precision (standard errors) of estimates of interest (e.g., estimates of overall characteristics (totals, means, proportions) of a population or subpopulations of interest). Sample sizes are determined for analytical surveys based on statistical power analysis. (Posted 19 July 2007, updated 17 September 2013.)Click here for instructions on how to download the program. For additional information on using statistical power analysisto determine sample size for analytical surveys, see the following article.Determinationof Sample Size for Analytical Surveys, Using a Pretest-Posttest-Comparison-GroupDesign (11 November 2016)Click here to view the article. (Here for pdf version.)Mathematical ForecastingBox-JenkinsForecasting Program.This computer program performs the analysis required to develop the most commonBox-Jenkins models. (6 February 2009)Click here for instructions on how to download the program.TheBox-Jenkins Forecasting Technique.This paper describes the Box-Jenkins forecasting technique (usingautoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models), and compares it toother mathematical forecasting techniques. (28 August 2006.)Click hereto view the article. (Here for pdf version.)TIMESBox-Jenkins Forecasting Technique, Reference Manual, Volume I, TechnicalBackground.This paper describes the mathematical theory of the Box-Jenkins forecastingtechnique (using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)models). (7 September 2006.) (Note: This report contains manymathematical formulas, constructed using the Microsoft Equation 3.0 system ofMicrosoft Word 2002. For some web browsers, these formulas (819 of them)may not display properly in the hypertext (.htm) version of the report, andthey are slow to load. For this reason, this document isposted only in the Microsoft Word 2002 (.doc) and Adobe Acrobat (.pdf)versions. The paper is rather long (45 pages of technical text), so allowa minute or so for the file to download.)Click here for pdf version, here for doc version.MathematicalForecasting Using the Box-Jenkins Methodology. Briefing slides for a talkabout mathematical forecasting using the Box-Jenkins methods. This paperdescribes the mathematical theory of the Box-Jenkins forecasting technique (usingautoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models). (7 February2007.) (Note: This report contains a number of mathematical formulas,constructed using the Microsoft Equation 3.0 system of Microsoft Word2002. For some web browsers, these formulas (61 of them) may not displayproperly in the hypertext (.htm) version of the report, and they are slow to load. For this reason, this document is posted only in theMicrosoft Word 2002 (.doc) and Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) versions.)Click here for pdf version, here for doc version.HistoricalNote on TIMES.The first commercially available general-purpose Box-Jenkins forecastingprogram, TIMES, was developed by Joseph George Caldwell in the late 1960s andearly 1970s, while he was with Lambda Corporation. Someone inquiredrecently how the program was marketed. The marketing was done principallyby two mailed flyers. Here are copies of them, and a copy of a flyer fora forecasting system (developed by Caldwell) designed to estimate stockvolatility using Box-Jenkins models.Forecasting with TIMES pdf . TIMES: A Technical Description pdf . AEI Optimal Forecasts pdf .A Survey of Methods for Forecasting and Policy Analysis, with Examples in R.This paper describes major methods of forecasting and presents some examples using R. (30 July 2019.)Click here for pdf version, here for docx version.DemographyDemography: Cohort-Component Populations and SyntheticEstimationShort course on Demographic Analysis: Click here The Destiny2005 Estimation, Forecasting and Analysis System. This system makes populationprojections and synthetic estimates based on cohort-component populationprojections. It includes country-by-country population projections undervarious assumptions about Hubbert's Peak / Hubbert's Curve (e.g., whether therich countries keep all of the oil for themselves after global oil productionstarts to decline). The system may be applied to forecast a wide range ofdemographic-related phenomena, such as HIV/AIDS caseloads and budgets, schoolenrollments and related requirements (teachers, classrooms, supplies, textbooks),social-service caseloads and budgets, hospital beds, nursing-home facilities,and prison populations. This international version is for usewith the Microsoft Access 2002 database management system. Click here for Description of Capabilities( DC ) and User's Manual ( UM ):DC.doc DC.htmDC.pdf UM.docUM.htm UM.pdf. (2 January 2006.)Click here for instructions on how to download the program.Flyer. (3 April 2007.)Destiny1 Destiny2WhateverHappened to Trinidad and Tobago? What is happening to Trinidad and Tobagowill soon happen to the rest of the world -- the classic Easter Island Syndrome: unchecked populationgrowth, overshooting the carrying capacity, and devastating ecologicalcollapse. (17 September 1995.)Environmental Situation Assessment: Trinidad and Tobago. A few years ago, I was invited to an interview for a contract position to do some environmental work (program planning, monitoring, and evaluation; policy analysis) in Trinidad and Tobago, so I took a couple of days to examine the environmental situation there. It was pretty disheartening to see how much that country has already overshot its ability to feed itself from its own rich agricultural resources. During the interview, I showed my analysis to the government official. It was rather evident that he did not like what he saw, and that he did not appreciate my publicizing the fact that his country had already passed the point at which it could support itself from its own food sources (as many other countries have also done). I didn't get the job, but the paper I presented to the official is still interesting reading. The country's population now exceeds its carrying capacity, and when fossil fuels run out, many Trinidadians will die of hunger.Click here to view the article. (Here for pdf version.)OptimizationOptimization and Game Theory; Constrained Optimization; OptimalAllocation of Resources; Determination of Optimal StrategiesA LagrangianApproach to Customer Relationship Management: Variable-Rate Pricing Strategy. This paper describes anoptimization-based approach to customer relationship management (CRM), andillustrates the methodology with an application to the problem of determining avariable-rate pricing model for banking loan products. The methodologyemployed to solve the problem is Everett's Generalized Lagrange Multiplier(GLM) method. (9 August 2006.)Click here to view the article. (Here for pdf version.)Somemathematical theory of global nuclear war. These articles present thebasic mathematical theory of global nuclear war and missile defense.(Articles written July-August 2001, summarizing work done mainly in 1967-72.)Optimal Warfare StrategiesThe following articles present a mathematical solution to the problem of determining an optimal attack, i.e., an attack (allocation of weapons to targets) that maximizes a specified payoff function. The payoff function may be expected damage to a set of targets (e.g., population killed, targets destroyed) or any other target-related characteristic (e.g., commercial energy capacity destroyed, biodiversity threat reduction). If a defense is present (e.g., the attacker uses ballistic missiles and the defender has a national missile defense system in place), the defense is also optimized (to minimize the payoff function.The complexity of the problem varies, depending on how much detail is considered, and on whether some form of defense is involved. The no-defense case applies, for example, to the use of a suitcase-bomb attack, or a missile attack against an enemy having no missile defense.The optimal attacks used inCan America Survive? are special cases of Case 1 below.Case 1. Optimal Attack in the Case of No Defense (suitcase-bomb attacks, missile attacks against an undefended enemy). Clickhere for .htm file,here for .pdf file.Case 2. Optimal Attack/Defense in the Case of Terminal Interceptors. Clickhere for .htm file,here for .pdf file.Case 3. Optimal Attack/Defense in the Case of Area Interceptors. Clickhere for .htm file,here for .pdf file.Case 4. General-Sum Game-Theoretic Approach to Warfare. Clickhere for .htm file,here for .pdf file.Analyticaland Conceptual Frameworks for Automated Scenario Generation: Application toTactical Theater Air Warfare.This article present frameworks for tactical theater air warfare, but thematerial is general and can be applied to other warfare contexts. Theseconcepts were applied, for example, in the development of an automated scenariogeneration system (the Vista Scenarist) for non-communications electronic warfaresystems. (Material written in 1989.)Click here to view the article. (Here for .pdf version.)Here is a copy of the report from which the preceding was extracted. It is titled, Theater Tactical Air Warfare Methodologies: Automated Scenario Generation (July 21, 1989). The project for which this is the final report is an example of the application of Hugh Everett's Generalized Lagrange Multiplier (GLM) method to solve a resource-constrained two-person zero-sum game.Click here to for .htm file, here for .pdf file.Scenarist summary: Caldwell, J. G., Scenarist Automated Scenario Generation System, article accepted for publication (but not published because of inability to contact author for final approval) in SIGNAL Magazine (official publication of the Armed Forces Communications-Electronics Association), 1992.Click here to view the article. (Here for pdf version.)Here is a copy of some of the documents produced by the Scenarist development project. The original project documentation was produced using WordPerfect 4.2, and these versions, converted to Microsoft Word, have some issues (formatting, lack of graphics, missing appendices).Final Report:htm pdfUser's Manual:htm pdfProgrammer's Manual:htmpdfVariable Glossary:htmpdfTest Report:htm pdfDemonstration:htmpdfSummary:htm pdfFast Algorithms: Here is a copy of a report on fast algorithms (Improved Algorithms for Estimation, Prediction and Control). It was originally produced using WordPerfect 4.2, and this version, converted to Microsoft Word, has some formatting issues (e.g., underscoring, subscripting).htmpdfArtificial Intelligence and Modeling and Simulation: Paper presented to the Eleventh Annual Technical Seminar, Arizona Chapter of Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association (AFCEA), Sierra Vista, Arizona, March 9-10, 1988.htmpdfComputer Program for Tracking Aircraft Using Temporal Projections. This program is a tool for evaluating the methodology of tracking moving vehicles using the method of temporal projections. The program is currently configured to track aircraft. The program simulates radar scans of moving vehicles in a specified region, and estimates tracks from the simulated data. The purpose of the program is to assess the quality of alternative tracking algorithms. Clickhere for instructions on how to download the program.Election Campaign Strategic Planning Model. This computer-program model determines optimal allocations of campaign budgets corresponding to specified assumptions. It determines the optimal allocation by considering the election process as a two-person mathematical game, and determining the budget allocations (for both sides) that correspond to the optimal strategies for playing the game. The mathematical method for solving the game is Everett's Generalized Lagrange Multiplier method (the same method used in the defense models presented above). Clickhere for instructions on how to download the program.Anhistorical note on Lambda Corporation, Hugh Everett III and John Nash. Some background on the time andplace in which the mathematical theory was developed. (6 April 2002, minor changes 28 April 2002)Click here to view the note. (Here for pdf version.)EconomicsEconomics; Tax Policy AnalysisCaldwell Tax Plan: A Value-Added TaxTheValue-Added Tax: A New Tax System for the United States proposes elimination of the personaland corporate income tax system in the United States, and replacement ofthe current system with one based on the value-added tax (VAT). The bookdescribes the inadequacies of the current US tax system; its incrediblecomplexity; its undesirable economic incentives which discourage saving,investment, and economic growth; the high administrative cost; the instabilityin government revenues caused by a narrow, volatile tax base; the incentive forwasting productivity in tax avoidance; the problem it causes in internationaltrade; the invasion of privacy; and the tyranny of the IRS. (16 November 1987, e-bookedition 8 November 2000.)Click here to view book in htm format. Here for pdf format.Graphics from the hard-copy book that are not included in the above:Front CoverBack Cover Cartoon SpinePowerPoint presentation:.pptx .pdfThe Story ofCivilization: A Child's Primer of Economics. A fable about the history ofthe world, from an economic perspective (29 May 2004, updated 2 August 2004.)Click here to view the article. (Here for pdf version.)East TimorItems on East TimorFALINTILMarching. A photo by Ina Varella Bradridge, May 20, 2002, Dili,Timor-Leste.(Posted 23 October 2006.)Click here to see photo.A CountryModel for East Timor(1 May 2006, minor edits 13 July 2006.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)The Crisisof Democracy in East Timor(16 June 2006, updated 13 July 2006.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)On JohnPerkins' Confessions of an Economic Hit Man, and Its Relevance to East Timor (29 December 2006, updated 20 May2007.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellaneous ArticlesMiscellaneous Articles;mostly chronologicalThe articles of this section have been placed in other sections, or removed.MusicMusicHow to Playthe Guitar by Ear (for mathematicians and physicists) explains the theory of music in termsunderstandable to a person with a technical background, and describes how tolearn to strum chords to accompany popular songs in any key, by ear. Freelyrics. Free country lyrics. Lyrics for children's songs, gospelsongs, Christmas songs, and older popular songs. Guitar chords.(Article 6 February 2000,updated 10 July 2001; lyrics 22 November 2001, updated periodically.)How to Play the Guitar by Ear:htm file;pdf file (6 Feb 2000, updated 3 Nov 2002).How to Play the Guitar by Ear: Six One-Hour Lessons (eight pages of course notes; course requires instructor):htm file;pdf file (posted 21 August 2008, updated 30 Aug 2008).How to Attach a Guitar Strap, and Repair Small Dents and Scratches in a Guitar:htm file; pdf file (posted 3 April 2003, updated 27 Dec 2008).Summary of Music Theory (two pages):htm file;pdf file (posted 11 May 2002)Click here to view additional music items (lyrics, recordings).Bridge BridgeJosephCaldwell Bridge Bidding System. A simplified bridge biddingsystem. (4 October 2012)Click hereto view, here for .pdfversion.DuplicateBridge Methods for Baby Boomers with Emphasis on High-Power, Low-ComplexityMethods, by John Memory, JD, PhD.Click here forpdf version.FreemasonryItems on FreemasonryProposal toTransform Freemasonry(1 December 2006.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.) Cover Letter 1 (in pdf)Cover Letter 2 (in pdf)Restorationof the Masonic Temple in Monrovia, Liberia (16 August 2009.)The Situation Krystal Oceanview Hotel Masonic Temple 1 Masonic Temple 2New AgeNew Age / Spirituality / Mysticism / Prophecy / Eschatology (EndTimes);chronologicalHow I Cameto Know Rudolf Steiner.A human-interest story (of possible interest to those who have tried tomeditate, without much apparent success). (26 October 2002, corrected 5November 2002.)Click here to view the article. (Here for pdf version.)The New AgeSociety of Solitaire, Namibia (6 June 2003.)Click here to view article. (Here for pdf version.)TheFoundation New Age Calendar(1 March 2004,revised 13 March 2004.)Click here to view the article. Calendar: htm pdfThe GoodLife Thegood life is one inspired by desire, guided by love, and facilitated (enabled)by knowledge. My views versus those of Bertrand Russell. (17October 2004.)Click here to view the article. (Here for pdf version.)Earth IsGod's Dime NovelPersonal observations on metaphysics. (28 November 2004, updated 11December 2004.)Click here to view. (Here for pdf version.)On EdwardBulwer-Lytton: Agharta, Shambhala, Vril and the Occult Roots of NaziPower (31 December 2004.)Click here to view. (Here for pdf version.)The Battlefor Earth (Outline): The Good-Evil Index; The Amazing Feature of the Good-EvilIndex; The Many Concurrent Battles to Take Over Earth; Alien Invasion; GlobalIndustrialization; Christianity and Islam; Judaism; The Illuminati; The GreatWhite Brotherhood / Universal Brotherhood; Foundation (13 January 2005.)Click here to view. (Here for pdf version.)The AlienInvasion of Earth: Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs, FlyingSaucers ), Alien Abductions, Crop Circles, and More (16 March 2005, updated 28 March 2005.)Click here to view. (Here for pdf version.)On NealeDonald Walsch, Conversations with God, and The New Revelations. A comparison of Walsch's viewsto my own. Discussion of moral relativism. (12 April 2003, updated28 April 2003.) (This article focuses on Walsch's views relative to thecurrent planetary environmental crisis. For a more general criticism ofNeale Donald Walsch's views, see, for example, http://spoirier.lautre.net/walsch.html.)Click here to view. (Here for pdf version.)The LastPopes: St. Malachy's prophecies concerning the End of the Age (22 April 2005.)Click here to view. (Here for pdf version.)The AlienInvasion of Earth: Strategy for Planetary Conquest (1 May 2005.)Click here to view. (Here for pdf version.)NewtonVindicated: Sir Isaac Newton and Einstein's Theory of Relativity (1 May 2005.)Click here to view. (here for pdf version.)The War ofthe World: The End Game(27 May 2005, updated 3 June 2005.)Click here to view. (Here for pdf version.)MiscellaneousMiscellaneous / Personal Interest / PersonalMiscellany: Sketchesof articles that might have been. A Cultural Difference (An AfricanPerspective); The Frog and the Pot of Water; The Prophecy of the Eagle and theCondor; US Department of Agriculture Endorses Complete Destruction of AmericanFarmland; Apply John Nash's Nonzero-Sum Game Theory to Solve the World'sEnvironmental Problem; Who Killed Cock Robin?: The Case for War against Brazilto Save the Rain Forest; The Role of Compound Interest (14 May2004.)Click hereto view. (Here for pdf version.)Miscellany2 Observationson this week's reading. Preserving Biodiversity: The Only Game in Town;The Real Cause of 9/11; Witchcraft in Africa: Gaining Recognition; Democracyvs. Self-Determination; Winning the War in Iraq -- Making Progress!; Fightingthe Last War: Why the War on Terrorism is Irrelevant; The Game of Life onEarth: Michael Newton's Journey of Souls; Take a Stand -- Be Judgmental!;Retirement: The Choice of Culture vs. Materialism; Some Comments on NealeDonald Walsch's Tommorrow's God; Oxymorons That Just Won't Go Away: SustainableGrowth, Sustainable Development; The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence(SETI); Professor Albert A. Bartlett (23 May 2004.)Click here to view. (Herefor pdf version.)Miscellany3: Observationson this week's reading. On a Remark by Mohandes K. Gandhi; On theResignation of CIA Director George Tenet; On a Line in Troy; On Jeffrey Sachs' Doing the Sums in Africa (6 June 2004, updated 8June 2004.)Click here to view. (Herefor pdf version.)Miscellany4: Observationson this week's reading and conversation. The AIDS Conspiracy; JeffreySachs on Debt Relief; On Creationism versus Evolution; Recolonizing Afria;Using the Computer Like a Typewriter (18 July 2004.)Click here to view. (Herefor pdf version.)Miscellany5: Observationson the past month's news and reading. The Next Green Revolution; HowModern Man Treats Vicunas; The Loss of Britain; Modest Hospital Gowns forMoslem Women; Some Notes on Strategy for Fighting Terrorism; RainforestDestruction in Brazil; E-Waste; The 9/11 Charade; The US Election: Tyranny ofthe Minority; Catholics on Feminism; Cambodia, Rwanda and Sudan: Precursors ofThings to Come; The Minimal Regret Society (22 August 2004,updated 23 August 2004.)Click here to view. (Herefor pdf version.)Miscellany6: Commentaryon the past month's news and reading. Shall I Continue?; Hubbert’s Peak;Jessica Williams; A Country Filled with Spies; Bush Suggests War on TerrorCannot Be Won; Bertrand Russell and Neale Donald Walsch; The Way of theWarrior; Culture Change; What’s In a Name? (12 September 2004.)Click here to view. (Herefor pdf version.)Miscellany7: Commentaryon the past month's news and reading. Some Remarks on Immigration; JohnE. Mack; Minette Marrin; Spain’s Water Problem; Humiliation vs. Beheading;Bushmen Losing Out; Cheney and Kerry on Sensitive War; Tobacco Companies’Troubles; Christopher Reeve (24 October 2004.)Click here to view. (Herefor pdf version.)Miscellany8: Men inBlack; Overhauling the UN; The Burma Campaign; Remembering Treviso, Italy; RoyClarke on Corruption; No Man Can Do It Alone; An Africaaner Prayer(7 November 2004, updated 11 December 2004.)Click here to view. (Herefor pdf version.)Miscellany9: A Prayerfor Ishmael; Eschew Obfuscation (13 November 2004, updated 11 December 2004.)Click here to view. (Herefor pdf version.)Miscellany10:The Tsunami; More on HIV/AIDS; More on Immigration; Congo Exterminating thePygmy Chimpanzees; The Chinese-Trader Rhino Man; Poverty in Zambia; KillingDixie; Retinal Detachment; the Power of Prayer (9 January 2005, updated 8 September2005, 20 May 2007.)Click here to view. (Here for pdf version.)Miscellany11:Democracy Israeli Style; Culture Creep; America s Approach to Wide-ScreenTVs; The Cost of an Adopted Orphan; The Cost of Health Care in the US; Losingthe War in Iraq; Losing the War against the Alien Invasion; US Citizenship forSale; On Pat Robertson s Remark Concerning the Assassination of HugoChavez; The Fair Tax Gross Misuse of the Social Security Number;The So-Called Right to Privacy(25 August 2005, updated 2 September 2005.)Click here to view. (Here for pdf version.)Miscellany12:Understanding the US Response to Hurricane Katrina; One More Cost of MassImmigration (14September 2005, revised 19 September 2005.)Click here to view. (Here for pdf version.)Miscellany13:The Hypocrisy of Democracy(18 February 2006.)Click here to view. (Here for pdf version.)Miscellany14:Cannibalism Alive and Well in America; Tort Reform; The American Systemof Waste; The Bishop of London; Athena to Telemachus; The State of the USEconomy; A Glimmer of Hope; Murder Is a Local Matter, unless It Has PoliticalPotential; Will President Bush Be Assassinated in 2006?; The Quality of Life inHaiti under Democracy; American Grammar Has Gone to the Dogs!; No Spare Time;Jesse Jackson; Lester Brown s Plan B Didn t Work On to PlanC!; The Loss of Free Television; Remembering Pearl Harbor; The Loss of Quality Free Television(18 February 2006.)Click here to view. (Here for pdf version.)Miscellany15:Was America Destroyed by the Jews? (18February 2006, updated 24 Feb 2006.)Click here to view. (Here for pdf version.)Miscellany16:The Last Days of the United States(18 February 2006.)Click here to view. (Here for pdf version.)Miscellany17:More on Mass Immigration: The US Government Want Mass Immigration, Legal orOtherwise; Don t Solve the Problem, Just Spend Money on It; The WrongReasons for Stopping Immigration; Legal Immigrants Are More Destructive ThanIllegal Ones; Florida Has Now Been Ruined: On to South Carolina; The Rise ofAztlan; Our Nineteen-Year-Olds Won t Work?; Instate Tuition for IllegalAliens, but Not for Americans from Other States!; Ten Thousand Acres perDay Being Destroyed by Immmigration; Temporary Visas -- Another Lie!; TooFew Border Agents?; Immigrants Are Murdering US Citizens; The US Is No Longer a People Bush Calls the Minutemen Vigilantes; With the CountryFilled with Aliens, It Is Necessary to Spy on US CItizens; 200 BorderViolations by the Mexican Army; Mass Immigration Has Destroyed America, andThere Is No Turning Back; Next Step Revolution! (18 February 2006.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany18:Removing Social Security Numbers -- About Time!; What Would Human Beings Dowith Access to Massive Energy Supplies?; Wikipedia Bans Congress; AmericanGovernment Priorities Do Not Include the Middle Class; Big Plans for NuclearEnergy; What's in a Word? Semantics Is Important! The Iraqi People?; TheOlduvai Theory; A Chocolate New Orleans?; Medical Insurance Has Driven the Costof US Health Care to Absurd Levels; Why Do Razor Blades Not Last Longr?; OilChanges; Did Dr. Arthur Agatson (South Beach Diet) Sell Out?; Where Has All theFlavor Gone? (18February 2006, updated 23 April 2009.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany19:The Last Great War; What Are the Islamists Waiting For?; The Mohammed Cartoons (18 February 2006.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany20:Mega Waste Landfills in South Carolina (6 March 2006.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany21:The Fatal Flaw of Democracy; More on the Imminent Demise of the United States;Learn about Coal; The 1986 Amnesty of Illegal Aliens Continues; Only Whites CanBe Racist; The Fight against Use of the SSN as a Universal ID (19 March 2006; minor edits 13 July2006.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany22:US Government: Ship of Fools?; The Broken US Health-Care System (30 March 2006, updated 3 April 2006,minor edits 13 July 2006.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany23:Immigration Is Destroying America; Carlos Fuentes on Immigration (9 April 2006, minor edits 13 July2006.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany24:Solomon Islands: Mass Immigration + Democracy = Lost Country; Mass DeportationIs a Natural Response to Mass Illegal Immigration; The Amazing Story behindCorona Beer s Phenomenal Success; A Country Model for East Timor (1 May 2006, minor edits 13 July2006.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany25:Natural Yogurt in Australia; Australian Wine: No Added Sulfites, No Headaches!;Sulfites in Wine; Cold Medicine Additive PPA: A Tragic Tale; Russia sDeclining Population; The Cassiopaea Transcripts; The Epidemic of Theft ofPrivate Data; Atmospheric Pollution by Aircraft -- Tragedy of theCommons All Over Again; Bill Gates Philanthropy; Why Reward IllegalAliens with US Citizenship?; Bali -- Another Example of Terminal Development;The Case for Nuclear Fusion; The Economic Development Lie; The SelectiveEnforcement of Intellectual Property Laws; The US Will Ask Mexico forPermission to Build a Border Wall?; The Crisis of Democracy in East Timor (16 June 2006, updated 13 July 2006,17 December 2006, 11 March 2007, 23 April 2009.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany26:On Symbols (21June 2006; minor edits 13 July 2006, 17 July 2006.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany27:On Neale Donald Walsch s Home with God; Middle-East Tourism in Indonesia;Israel and Palestine Will It Ever End?; Israel Will Not Negotiate withTerrorists Now That s a Laugh!; The Cruel Practice of ExportingLabor; The Dutch Get Smart about Immigration; Lip Service to Savingthe Environment; Pollution of the Atmosphere by Jet Airplanes; BikinisCelebrate Sixty Years; Round Up Illegal Immigrants?; The 2006 AustralianPsychic Expo (11July 2006; minor edits 13 July 2006, 17 July 2006.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany28:Some Nonmonetary Costs of Immigration (14 July 2006; augmented 15 July 2006.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany29:A Visit to the Relatives; Ben-Gurion; Charles Engelhard and Goldfinger; EarthDestruction; Premonition; Going Home; US Fails to Deport Chinese Immigrants; USJudge Refuses to Uphold Immigration Law; ICE Refuses to Deport Illegal Alien;US Government Refuses to Act on Immigration; Empty Chinese Shipping Containers;US Convicts Agents and Frees the Criminal; Parkland s Free Delivery ofAnchor Babies; All Mass Immigration Is Bad; High-Tech Soldiers Cannot Win inIraq; I Told You So (Iraq, Racial Profiling; Avoiding Blame in 9/11; Rumsfeldto Hilary: My Goodness; Why Boycott Cuba and Not China; Using Willie sBiodiesel Means Killing People; Do Hot Dogs Cause Cancer?; Low-Cost Medicine: ACrime against Capitalism; The Latest Drug Scam: Take Fosamax, Get GERD, andthen Take Nexium; Thank God I m a Country Boy; Talladega Nights; NoLoitering; Mother Theresa and Abe Lincoln; Fish Don t Swim with TheirFins; Osmosis Is Not the Answer(18 August 2006.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany30:US Population Explosion; If You Don t Know Who You Are SwissAsylum; Learn about Coal; US Government Treason; The Border Wall Won tWork; Diversity Increases in US; Apocalypse; Jean Raspail; Iraq Is Breaking Up;Shaming Punishments; Vote for None of the Above; Cancer Treatment; The GrowthEconomy; Katy Couric; H-1B Visas; Take This Job and Ship It!; Patrick Buchanan sState of Emergency; Why Can t Johnny Read or Do Arithmetic?; One More Costof the War in Iraq; Islamo-Fascists?; Oaths of Office; E. O. Wilson s TheCreation; The Border Patrol Verdicts; Local Attempts to Control IllegalImmigration; Lou Dobbs Is Wrong: All Mass Immigration Legal or Otherwise Is Bad for the US; War on the Middle Class; The Assault on Privacy; Ibuprofin Kills!; Barack Obama Our Next President? Not a Chance (19 October 2006.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany31:Who Killed the Electric Car?(13 December 2006.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany32:None of the Above; US Can t Deport Chinese; Bill Richardson Seeks Pardonfor Illegal Alien; One in Seven Mexican Workers Now in US; Milt Friedman Dies;A Remark by Gen. George S. Patton; Low Food Security; Easy Credit; 30,000undeserved US Citizenships Granted; Building Roads to Nowhere; US CannotSupport Army of 150,000; Iraq Study Group Report; Some Interesting Reading; TheYear of the Apology; No Percentages on Wine and Beer Labels; Jewish Ban onChristmas Trees; Hoover Dies; Groupers Are Friends; Abrupt Climate Change;Quote of the Day; Effects of Mass Immigration; The Grand Deception about MassImmigration; Racial Profiling; US Population Explosion (13 December 2006.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany33:Why Can t This Veal Calf Walk? (13 December 2006.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany34:Hormone Therapy; Wal-Mart Not to Blame; US Wages; The Decline of Quality; USLeaders Are Pronounced Idiots; Medical Insurance at Zero Cost!; Homework aWaste of Time; America: A Prison Society; The Cost of a Border Fence; IllegalAliens Kill More Americans than Die in Iraq War; Partitioning Iraq; GilletteBlue Blades (14December 2006.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany35:Harmful Food Additives(15 December 2006; updated 23 April 2009, 30 April 2009, 7 May 2009.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany36:The Demise of Israel?(16 December 2006.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany37: Time Magazine; Californication; US-Mexico Border Fence; Bush CourtsAssassination; Duke Rape Case; Remembering Martin Luther King; US Lies overIraq; Instate Tuition for Illegal Aliens; Schwarzenegger s Evil Ploy:Mandatory Health Insurance; Mandated Cowardice; Americans Killed by IllegalImmigrants; Ibuprofin Kills; Cost of the War in Iraq; Environmental Destructionfrom Immigration; Churchill; Henry Ford and Evolution; All Illegal Aliens AreCriminals; Laotians Eat Dogs; How Can the US Criticize Terrorists?; US LeadersEncourage Destruction of US; Donating Used Clothing Destroys Jobs; Cloned FoodIs Dangerous; State of the Union Address on Illegal Immigration; Iran: the USIs a Paper Tiger; Rock and Roll is NOT Black Music!; Rapid Population GrowthDestroys Everything; Nikola Tesla; Lou Dobbs Criticized; Snowflakes; SouthernAccents; Einstein s Big Idea; Nostradamus; Childhood Memories (25 January 2007.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany38: The March Against the Iraq War; The End of the Good Life; Partition Iraq?;The Advantage of Telling the Truth; Democracy s Fatal Flaw; EconomicGrowth Cannot Continue; China and Human Rights; Climate Change; The US PrisonSociety; Is China a Serious Threat?; US Guestworker Program Already in Place;Remittances by Illegal Aliens; Border Patrol Agents Imprisoned; US Treachery (8 February 2007.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany39: Whom Will the US Invade Next over Oil? (10 February 2007.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.) Click here for Microsoft Access OilStats.mdb database used inMiscellany 39.Miscellany40: A Critique of the New Microsoft Vista Operating System (11 March 2007; updated 13 March2007, 4 April 2007.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany41: Observations since March: Recent Activities; My Alien Implant; The Bloodsand the Crips On My Doorstep; Shock Absorbers: One More Icon of the AmericanSystem of Waste; The Cost of a Mattress; Bad Peanut Butter Spreads to the ThirdWorld; The Benefit of Exercise; Whites Need Not Apply; Natural Cures / HomeRemedies; The Rust Destroys the Steel; The Reason for the Obesity Epidemic?;Rewriting American History; George Bush on Climate Change; Nobody s Worth$200 Million; Nooses?; Immigration Finally Hits Home; No Down Payment Required;US Homes for Illegal Alien Drug Smugglers; The US Home Security Racket; TheIllusionist; The High Cost of Knock-Offs; Free Music; No Respect forAhmadinejad; Children Play Indoors Now; Bad Real Estate Contracts; WhateverHappened to the Greenwich Meridian?; Leprosy Skyrocketing; Not Invented Here;Avoiding a Humanitarian Disaster in Iraq; General David Grange on the Iraq War;Bodies Protected, Faces Ravaged; The Discrediting of Che Guevara; Ann CoulterInterview; Conservation Will Help? Rubbish!; Tesla, Not Marconi, InventedRadio; The White Man s Burden; Georgia Chain Gangs; No One Dresses UpAnymore; Recent Critiques on Religion; Hyperinflation in the US; Neale DonaldWalsch Is from Spartanburg; Plans for Coal-Fired Plants Dropped; Hal Lindsey sPrediction about the Demise of Israel; Blue Jeans Are Farmer s Pants; AnotherCase of Terminal Development; None of the Above: The Democrats Are the Same asthe Republicans; What s In a Name, Hillary Clinton; The US Border FenceShould Be Cancelled?(8 October 2007.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany42: US Hypocrisy in Kosovo; Only Whites Can Be Racist; The Kennedys EndorseObama; Fishing in Sierra Leone; Observing Presidents Day; Weaving a Flawinto a Rug; America Favors Illegal Immigrants over Its Own Citizens; Sharing Roomson Business Trips; Euphemisms; The US Government Caused the Mortgage Crisis;Organized Religion Serves the State; The Advantage of Speaking English;Whatever Happened to Paul Wolfowitz?; If We Leave Iraq It Will Be a Disaster;The US Government Wages War on the Middle Class; US Presidential Candidates AreDuplicitous Dissimulators; Roger Milliken Knows the Score; The US Government isSystematically Destroying the US Middle Class; Life Is Like a Football Game; TheYellow Sun; Security at US Embassies; Mass Deportation Now!; All Immigration IsDestroying the US, Not Just Illegal Immigration; A Tale of Two Countries: TheUnited States and Russia; Eugenics: US Illuminati Working to Improve US GenePool; Hitler s Consternation; Star Wars; Building Temporary Homes for aTemporary Society; Radical Egalitarianism: Alive and Well In US Schools; RalphNader for President; Sleepless in Monrovia; Masdar, the Green City (19 February 2008; updated 25February 2008, corrected 11 May 2008.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany43: Fertility Doctors Should Pay for Babies; Send the Liberians HomeImmediately; Legalize Drugs; Eugenics and Cannibalization Are Alive and Well inthe United States; William Shatner s Response to an Awkward Question; TheNovtel Designed for Natural Living; The US Treats Its Clowns Better thanIts Philosophers; A Good Wine; Bill Clinton: Don t blame me --it s not my fault (16 March 2009, updated 6 April 2009.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany44: Joseph George Caldwell's Predictions for 2009 (16 April 2009.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany45: Is Sonia Sotomayor Racist? Is Sonia Sotomayor a Racist? (1 June 2009, updated 4 June2009.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany46: On Health Care Reform(21 August 2009.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany47: Do You Eat Bug Juice?; J. Willard Marriott Quote; The Rising Cost ofGumballs; Health Insurance Is the Problem, Not the Solution; Inept Management,Inept Leadership; A Point of View; Irving Berlin and the Black Keys; Two One-ChordSongs; Millionaires in the White House; A Comment by Jay Leno; Debt Creation toStimulate the Economy; Postal Rate Increases; Eugenics Is Alive and Well in theUS; Forex Trading for Everyone!; Increasing Population Leads to Violent Deaths;Good Always Wins over Evil? Better to Ask for Forgiveness than to Ask forPermission?; Ralf Hotchkiss s $175 Wheelchair; Tom Selleck on CalvinCoolidge; Does God Exist? The ACORN Scandal: David and Goliath; Only Whites CanBe Racist, and Only Whites Can Do Racial Profiling; Health Care for IllegalImmigrants; Credit-Card Fees; Military-Service Path to Citizenship; ElectricCars and Trains; Singer Billy Walker; On Remembering Robert McNamara; OnRemembering Ted Kennedy; Why Do Spirits Lie? Allergies Are Psychosomatic; Am Ia Direct Descendant of Conan the Conqueror?; Parallel Universes / Physics /Spiritualism; On Dan Brown s The Lost Symbol; Deport All Illegal AliensImmediately; Lester Brown s Plan B 4.0 (16 September 2009, updated 31December 2009 ( Why Do Spirits Lie? ).)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany48: Why Should I Be a Missionary?(22 October 2009.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany49: President Obama Is a Traitor; President Obama Does Not Deserve the NobelPeace Prize; President Obama s Duplicity; President Obama IsRedistributing Wealth; End the Sports Franchise; Nonproductive Lawyers; USPublic Denied Knowledge of Bailout-Fund Uses; America s Debased Currency;A VAT Tax for the US?; You May Charge Interest Only to Enemies!; Spirituality;Plato Was Right; The Last Ferry in America; US Health Care: No Free Lunch;Ladies-Only Buses in Mexico City; Regression to the Mean?; A $1,500 Car forAmerica?; Throw the Bums Out!; Good Times Are Back!; Slow Down before Braking;What Is Really Important?; US Government Abets Illegal Aliens (29 October 2009.)Click here to view. (Click here for pdf version.)Miscellany 50: On Jay Hanson s America 2.0; Health InsuranceReform; Mercury Lamps; Single-Purpose Bills; Black-Culture Morality; WinstonChurchill on Success; Internet Download Speed; The Reason for Individual Cars;Why Conservation Fails; Another Indicator of Inflation; Why Do Economists WantInflation?; What s in a Word?; Fake Art in the White House?; PoliticalCorrectness; Where Is Competition?; The Coming of the Electric Car; TheGreatest Trade Ever; The Return of Slavery; Barack Obama: The Greatest MassMurderer of All Time?; Michelle Obama s Ancestors Are from Spartanburg; TheMissing Children; A Free Ride for Illegal Aliens; Jail for US Citizens;Divine Right of Kings (12 November 2009; updated 15 November 2009.)Click here to view. (Clickhere for pdf version.)Miscellany 51: Apparent Wind Speed and True Wind Speed(7 December 2009, revised 9 December2009, minor edits 9 February 2010.)Click here to view. (Clickhere for pdf version.)Miscellany 52: The Wave; United States Government Lies andTreachery; Freedom in Small Things; The Absurd US Population Policy; BallLightning; Our Debt-Based Money System; Selling the Benefits; Willing to Diefor One s Faith; True Hoaxes? The Georgia Guidestones; Mass Immigration IsDestroying America; On the Definition of Rights; The Power of EconomicIncentive; Keeping Cuban Cigars out of the US; The Purpose of Sports;Constructive Criticism; Why Do I Not Criticize Obama? Or Ben Bernanke?; HaitiIs Not a Natural Disaster; We Are All Slaves, Only Our Masters Change; HaitianCoffee; French Bread; Word War III Is Imminent; Love; 19 Children; PerryTuttle; Designer Babies; Eugenics in the US; Dr. Andrew Wakefield; TheChristmas-Day Bomber; Diversity at Vanity Fair; Revolution in the USA; TheGreat Stock Market Crash of 2010 (5 February 2010; minor edits 8February 2010, 7 March 20120 (to The Wave).)Click here to view. (Clickhere for pdf version.)Miscellany 53: Death by Illegal Alien;Destroying Strawberries; RIP Hummer; Regression to the Mean; Knowledge-BasedBelief; Spend the Oil; Obama Promised Change; Cashless Cabins; Abraham LincolnQuotes; US Design Life; AIG Is Selling Credit Default Swaps Again? US PresidentPimps; The Dream Act; Government Arrogance; Ben Bernanke and Monetization ofthe US Debt; Katrina Five Years Later; Economics Is the Science of Scarcity; USGovernment Destroys Manufacturing; No Pork on Air France; The Ultimate Weaponof Mass Destruction; The Cost of the Economic Stimulus; This Real Issue IsImmigration, not Illegal Immigration; The Value of Experience; The Pope inLondon; RIP Incandescent Light Bulbs; The De-development of America; TheNot-Invented-Here (NIH) Syndrome; Eugenics in the US; Where Does Obama Stand?;Infanticide; Botswana Genocide; A Quick Solution to the US UnemploymentProblem; Eschatology; Word Meanings; No Free Lunch; Memory; Fish Oil; Killingan Elk; The Anti-Missile System; The Iraq War; US Housing Policy; The FreeWill; Imperative; To Do Good; Repeal MLK Day; Affirmative Action; MillenniumChallenge Corporation; Cap and Trade; World War II: A Preview of Things toCome; Carter Criticizes Kennedy; Our Best Minds? The American Way; RelocatingIraqis to the US (14 December 2010; updated 15 December2010.)Click here to view. (Clickhere for pdf version.)Miscellany 54: Review of Paul Krugman's The Return of DepressionEconomics and the Crisis of 2008 (18 December 2010; updated 19 December2010.)Click here to view. (Clickhere for pdf version.)Miscellany 55: The Widening Income Distribution in the United States (30 December 2010.)Click here to view. (Clickhere for pdf version.)Miscellany 57: Exorbitant Health Care Markups for the Uninsured;Donald Trump s Bragging Rights; US Government Lies about the Rate ofInflation; Global Inflation; The End Result of Inflation; Dancing on the Headof a Pin; Is Obama A Natural-Born Citizen?;Home-Grown Terrorists; War andWealth; Night-Light Rip-off; I want my life back You Will Have toRead It to See What s in It; Exorbitant CEO Pay; An Interesting ConspiracyTheory; The Price of Gas, and a Red Herring; US Jobs Recovery; The US SportsMonopoly; Why Israel Doesn t Care about Peace; Faith-Based Initiatives;Islands for Sale; The Fukushima Nuclear Disaster; Crocodile Tears; Who ShouldBe Punished for Wikileaks?; The Severest Form of Punishment; Burning the Koran;Presidential Medal of Freedom; The World s Biggest Scam?; Socializing theCost and Privatizing the Benefits; Crimes against Humanity (26 April 2011; updated 27 April 2011,28 April 2011, 19 My 2015 (reference to The Warning added.)Click here to view. (Clickhere for pdf version.)Miscellany 58: Laura Knight-Jadczyk, Oct 15th 2011, at the WorldTrade Center (7 October 2011, updated 9 October 2011.)Click here to view. (Clickhere for pdf version.)Miscellany 59: Operation Clean Sweep: Round 'Em Up and Head 'Em Out; A More Precise Term for IllegalImmigrant: Invader (22 April 2013.)Click here to view. (Clickhere for pdf version.)Miscellany 60: US Citizenship for Sale; Never a Republican President Again?; Senator LindseyGraham’s Telephone Town Hall Meeting; A. C. Grayling on Terrorism; On DanBrown’s Inferno; On Laura Hillenbrand’s Unbroken;On Bradley Manning and Nidal Malik Hasan; On Hillary Clinton; On Gay Marriage;On Islamic Terrorists (23 August 2013.)Click here to view. (Clickhere for pdf version.)Miscellany 62: Should Colin Kaepernik Be Removed? (4 July 2019.)Click here to view. (Clickhere for pdf version.)Miscellany 63: Why US Immigration Should Be Stopped (4 July 2019.)Click here to view. (Clickhere for pdf version.)Personal InterestWho Am I? What qualifies me to makeaccurate statements and not just prophecies about nature and the humanrelationship to the environment? A response to a reader, amplified.(18 October 2004.)Click hereto view the article. (Here for pdfversion.)Am I aRacist? Aresponse to a reader's query. (29 November 2004.)Click hereto view. (Here for pdf version.)Some poemsfrom my childhood: A Legend of the Northland;The Little Dog under the Wagon; Make Me a Friend (29 January 2005; Legend corrected 15March 2014; Little Dog updated 19 May 2015.)Legend: htmpdf; Wagon: htmpdf; Friend: htmpdfPersonalDiary ofEdna Mary Conant Caldwell (great grandmother of Joseph George Caldwell) (29 March 2006.)Click here to view. (Here for pdf version.)A Note onEdna Mary Conant Caldwell and Roger Conant (31 January 2013.)Click here to view. (Here for pdf version.)Picture of author (29 March 2004(age 62), Islands of Siankaba, Zambezi River, ZambiaClick here to view the picture.(Old pictures: 36 40b 40c 44.)(Family picture (about 1982).Timi Caldwell (first wife of JGC) (age 48, 1987).Jackie Caldwell (second wife of JGC) (age 53, 1990).)Curriculum Vitae (5 November 2019.): htmpdf docCurriculum Vitae (EU format, no summary) (8 February 2018.): htmpdfdocOlderResumes (12 November 2016, 15 April 2018.)Hypertext (.htm) format:One PageInternational Development(SpanishFrench) Management ConsultingMilitary Systems AnalysisStatistical ConsultantList of PublicationsMS Word (.doc) format:One PageInternational Development(SpanishFrench)Management ConsultingMilitary Systems AnalysisStatistical Consultant List of PublicationsAdobe Portable Document (.pdf) format:One PageInternational Development Management ConsultingMilitary Systems AnalysisStatistical Consultant List of PublicationsSummary of PhD Dissertation: Bose, R. C. and J. G. Caldwell, Synchronizable Error Correcting Codes, Information and Control, 10, 1967. Posted athttp://www.foundationwebsite.org/SynchronizableErrorCorrectingCodes.pdf .Sample Survey Design for Impact Evaluation (One-Page Summary). Click here. (25 January 2018)Database Design for Monitoring and Evaluation (Two-Page Summary). Click here. (26 January 2018)Draft obituary. Click here. pdfdocRecordings

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