eFXdata | Institutional Derived FX Data: Orders, Quant and Insights

Time 2020-10-04 04:02:15

Web Name: eFXdata | Institutional Derived FX Data: Orders, Quant and Insights

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EUR net spec long: Click here Source:Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary Rally off Sep 25 low reverses at 50% Fib of 0.7413-0.7006, 21-DMAAUD/USD falls today, confirms the Oct 1 daily inverted hammer signal10-DMA neared while daily, monthly RSIs indicate bear momentum in place0.7085/0.7105 is support, a break should see bears target 0.7000/10Break below 0.7000 targets July monthly low & possibly 0.6645/95For more click on FXBUZaud/usd Click here Source:Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary Europe trades 1.1742-1.1709, NY opens near 1.1715, choppy trade followsNFP is below estimate, U. Rate drops below 8.0%; EUR/USD sinks nL1N2GT0K7EUR/JPY falls to 123.11 on EBS, EUR/USD sinks to 1.1699 on EBSRisk sentiment improves after Speaker Pelosi stimulus comments nL1N2GT17MEUR/USD lifts near 1.1720 and sits nearby late in the sessionTechs lean bearish; 10-DMA pierced, daily, monthly RSIs imply bear momentumA U.S. stimulus deal might be what saves EUR/USD longs nL1N2GT0W8For more click on FXBUZeur/usd Click here Source:Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary Bank of America Global Research discusses CHF outlook and targets EUR/CHF at 1.06 and USD/CHF at 0.93 by year-end."CHF has remained largely sidelined over the past month with EUR/CHF broadly trapped between a 1.07/1.08 trading range. This relative stability continues to underpin the tug-of-war that faces the market: trade CHF on global cyclical factors or trade CHF on relative real yield?"For the SNB, there should be no sense of imminent panic. CHF has been behaving smartly so will likely continue to adopt its message warning that further interventions are necessary when needed. We continue to believe that SNB policy will be driven by FX considerations first rather than interest rates and expect the policy rate to remain at -0.75% for the rest of the year," BofA notes. Source:BofA Global Research Recent dips toward the 10-DMA have been short lived, sharp bounces ensueDaily RSI and the daily cloud base are rising, implies bullish momentumGBP/USD bulls look set to test key resistance near 1.3010The 55-DMA, daily highs from mid-September sit in that regionBreak of that resistance could lead to test of 1.3145/75 resistanceGBP/USD bears need break 1.2805/20 support to gain some controlFor more click on FXBUZgbp/usd Click here Source:Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary Credit Suisse discusses USD/CAD technical outlook and highlights the importance of1.3440 1.3241 levels for directional bias in the near-term."USDCAD has seen a sharp rejection from price resistance at 1.3421, just shy of the 61.8% retracement of the June/September fall at 1.3 440. Whilst above the neckline to the base at 1.3247/41 though we remain biased for further corrective strength, although we acknowledge that the risk of an early resumption of the core bear trend has increased," CS notes."With this in mind, we see resistance initially at the aforementioned 1.3421. Removal of here would expose the late July highs at 1.3451/60 next, ahead of the measured base objective and 200 -day average at 1.3496/3529, where we would look for a cap for the medium - term downtrend to then reassert itself. In contrast, a clear and closing break below 1.3247/41 would negate the small base to suggest a direct resumption of themedium -term bear trend, with support seen next at 1.3171/69," CS adds. Source:Credit Suisse Research/Market Commentary EUR/USD fell on Friday on news that U S President Donald Trump tested positive for COVID-19 and a slightly disappointing non-farm payrolls report nL1N2GT0K7, leaving the euro vulnerable to bearish sentiment unless lawmakers produce a fiscal support bill.Safe-haven dollar and yen buying helped drive EUR/USD below the 10-day moving average.News that euro zone inflation fell further into negative territory nL8N2GT1W7 added to the euro's woes -- buoying euribor prices, pressing Bund yields lower and widening German-U.S.yield spreads in the dollar's favor.Brent crude futures LCOc1 broke critical support and hit a 3-1/2-month low.The fall increased euro zone disinflation worries, which should keep inflation expectations EUIL5YF5Y=R trending lower and expectations for additional ECB stimulus elevated.If the U S Congress can agree a stimulus deal EUR/USD's rally might resume.House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said that Trump's diagnosis changed the dynamic of relief negotiations nL1N2GT0NZ.Risk rallied on the statement and EUR/USD bounced slightly.For now, though, EUR/USD looks likely to drop, and bearish technicals like falling monthly and daily RSIs bolster that view.For more click on FXBUZeur/usd Click here BRENT Click here eur/inf Click here Source:Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses its expectations for next week's RBA policy meeting."The AUD will be focused on the RBA meeting and the Federal budget in the coming week. The market remains 63% priced for the RBA to cut itscash rate. The theory that has the market excited about the RBA s meeting next week is that the government will table its budget on the same day, but in the evening and after the RBA meeting... We continue to think the RBA would prefer to wait until after seeing the budget (we do not think it will get any scoops) as well as further data to confirm the extent of the damage to growth done by the Victoria lockdown," CACIB notes."If the RBA were to stay on hold in October, we would see it as another opportunity to sell AUD/CAD or another AUD cross as we would expect more easing to still be on its way," CACIB adds. Source:Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary CIBC Research reacts to today's US jobs report for the month of September."Job gains continued in the US in September, but with less momentum than in prior months, suggesting that the economic recovery is on a softer trajectory. The 661K employment increase was below the consensus forecast and leaves just over half of the jobs lost in the spring months recouped, when taken with the +145K revision to the prior two months. September's figure included a 216K drop in government employment, while gains were spread across private industries. The drop in the unemployment rate to 7.9% was sharper than expected and reflected a drop in participation," CIBC adds."Despite making solid progress from last quarter's depths, the US labor market remains far from healed and gains from here are likely to slow further given that there are less temporarily laid off workers to call back and the aggregate demand picture remains soft given the lack of further fiscal support as well as elevated virus cases," CIBC adds. Source:CIBC Research/Market Commentary 1.2904 is low water-mark for cable since its London morning rise to 1.2952Rise to 1.2952 was fuelled by news about Johnson/vdL and EU-UK talks to comeSee: nL1N2GT0AH. 1.2835 = intra-day low just before 0500GMT on Trump news Trump and his wife test positive for coronavirus nL1N2GT08VnL8N2GT18QM&A news: Billionaire British brothers and TDR buy WalMart's Asda for $8.8bnSee: nL8N2GT29W. U.S. Sept employment report due 1230GMT, NFP f/c 850kGBPUSD Click here Source:Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary 0.7175 is high water-mark for AUD/USD since it fell to 0.7131 on Trump newsTrump and wife Melania test positive for coronavirus nL1N2GT08V0.7131 = two-day low (0.7101 = Wednesday low). AUD is liquid proxy for risk0.7209 was Thursday's one-week high, before 4% copper drop took edge off AUDU.S. Sept jobs report due 1230GMT: NFP f/c 850k, jobless rate f/c 8.2%To cut or not to cut? That is the question for RBA next week nL1N2GT098AUDUSD Click here Source:Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary Risk aversion hit stocks, boosted JPY on news U.S Pres Trump covid positiveThrough recent daily lows/support 105.20-105.00, posted 104.95 lowRecoveries so far limited to 105.27, resistance 21-dma 105.51104.90 key - 23 Sept low and 50% Fibo retrace of Sept 104.00-105.80 recoveryBreak would open potential to 104.42-40 - 76.4% Fibo and 22 Sept lowsOptions spiked, setbacks minimal - flags simmering uncertainty/downside risk Related nL1N2GT06ZJPY=EBS Click here Source:Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary EUR/USD has consolidated a big rise close to the higher end of its rally.That's a bullish sign and it's a strong signal given the huge amount of longs, but a chart pattern far below is worrying.The daily cloud twists around 1.1065 and that twist lasts until that start of 2021.Twists can attract, and while a drop to 1.11 seems unlikely, that makes it a risk worth hedging.Few traders cover the risk of the unexpected, effectively increasing its probability.A drop of that magnitude could also improve the chances for a bigger EUR/USD rally, which by then would be unencumbered by the overhang of massive speculative longs.1.1162 is a 61.8% retrace of this year's rise.It's more likely longs will be pared with EUR/USD trapped 1.15-20, eventually reaching 1.2600.For now, it may be worth the relatively small expense of an out-of-the-money option to cover risk of that cloud twist.Related nL1N2GQ06LFor more click on FXBUZEUR/USD Click here EUR/USD retracements Click here EUR/USD Click here Source:Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary GBP/USD rises to 1.2876 after initial drop to 1.2835 on Trump newsTrump and wife Melania test positive for COVID-19 nL4N2GT0Y0Volatility follows yo-yo Thursday on twists and turns in Brexit talks tale131 pip fall to 1.2819; then 160 pip rise; then 117 pip fall nL1N2GS0PXM&A tip: Two G4S shareholders open to a higher bid from GardaWorld-The Times See: nL4N2GS3U0. G4S rejected 190p/share cash offer Wednesday nL4N2GR38YGBPUSD Click here Source:Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary Options expire 10-am New York/3-pm London - Friday October 2EUR/USD: 1.1700 (1.3BLN), 1.1750 (2BLN), 1.1800 (1.7BLN) GBP/USD: 1.2750 (161M), 1.2825 (150M), 1.2900 (201M)EUR/GBP: 0.9130 (208M). NZD/USD: 0.6615 (210M)AUD/USD: 0.7140 (218M), 0.7160 (301M), 0.7250 (480M)USD/CAD: 1.3240-50 (525M), 1.3375-85 (450M), 1.3400 (421M), 1.3415-20 (720M) USD/JPY: 104.50 (565M), 104.90 (410M), 105.50 (766M) Source:Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary AUD/USD slid to 0.7131 from 0.7160 on Trump's COVID-19 diagnosisCould reach 0.7084 base of daily Ichimoku Cloud supportClosing below increases odds of deeper move below 0.7000 barrierUS President tweeted that he tested positive for virus nFWN2GS169Undergoing quarantine and recovery process immediatelyRisk off sends US S&P futures to -1.2% from -0.3%, lifts USDFor more click on FXBUZAUD: Click here Source:Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary EUR/USD opened 0.25% higher at 1.1750 and settled 1.1735/45News Trump aide tested positive for coronavirus weighed on risk nL1N2GT00WE-Mini futures slipped lower and were down close to 0.50% at one stageRisk currencies moved lower against USD and JPY on US political uncertaintyEUR/USD fell to 1.1714 and was just above that level into the afternoonSupport is at the 10-day MA at 1.1703 and break shifts pressure to downsideResistance is at the 21-day MA at 1.1768 and yesterday's 1.1770 highMarket now awaiting news on results of Trump coronavirus testFor more click onFXBUZeur Click here Source:Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary Risk selling continues on report Trump aide tested positive for coronavirus nL1N2GT00WTrump said on Twitter he and first lady will start quarantine process nL4N2GT0GDReports adding to political risk uncertainty as U.S. election nearsE-Mini futures are down close to 0.50%, as Trump waits for test resultsAUD/USD trading at session low at 0.7156 after opening 0.7182Support at yesterday's 0.7155 low and 10-day MA at 0.7127For more click on FXBUZeur Click here aud/usd Click here Source:Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary EUR edging lower against the USD and JPY, as mood in Asia a bit risk-offReport Trump aide has coronavirus and lack of US aid deal progress weighs nW1N2C903NnL1N2GS0X8EUR/USD trading at session low - just above 1.1730 after opening 1.1750Support is at yesterday's 1.1718 low and 10-day MA at 1.1705For more click on FXBUZeur Click here Source:Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary Report Trump aide Hope Hicks tested positive for coronavirus weighing on risk nW1N2GK033E-Mini futures down around 0.35% after the news and AUD/USD below 0.7170Failure so far of agreement on US aid deal also weighing on sentimentAUD/USD support at yesterday's 0.7155 low and 10-day MA at 0.7127 For more click on FXBUZaud/usd Click here Source:Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary EUR/USD opens 0.25% higher as market clings to hope of US aid deal nL1N2GS1BEEUR/GBP buying underpinned as conflicting Brexit headlines weighed on GBP nL8N2GS450Resistance at 1.1770 where the 21-day MA converges with Thursday highSupport at the 10-day MA at 1.1706 and break shifts pressure to downsideFor more click on FXBUZeur Click here Source:Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary AUD/USD opens 0.25% higher at 0.7182 after trading as high as 0.7209AUD buoyant despite no agreement on US aid deal and 5% plunge in NY copper nL1N2GS0X8nL4N2GS1O9Market still holding out hope of an 11th hour US aid deal agreementHopes a deal will be agreed to discouraging AUD/USD selling for nowResistance around 0.7210 validated by Thursday's price actionThe 21-day MA and the 50% retracement of 0.7413/0.7006 converge at 0.7210Support is found at the 10-day MA, which descends to 0.7127 todayAustralia August retail sales today with market expecting -4.2% M/MFor more click on FXBUZaud/usd Click here Source:Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses EUR/USD outlook from the flows perspective and expects the unhedged inflows into the Eurozone stock markets to resume in the coming months and help the EUR to advance through the coming months."EUR portfolio inflows slowing but not reversing. Recent data has suggested that both unhedged and hedged ETF Eurozone stockmarket inflows have slowed down considerably of late. And while the inflows into the US stock-market ETFs did not fare much better, the cumulative impact seemed to be EUR/USD negative," CACIB notes."We believe that this will remain a theme in the coming months and quarters with portfolio inflows offsetting or even outweighing any portfolio outflows from the Eurozone. Indeed, we expect that the second Covid-19 wave will only have a temporary impact on the Eurozone recovery so that foreign equity inflows could resume in the coming months, CACIB adds. Source:Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary The dollar clawed back from most of its earlier losses in U S trade on Thursday, boosted by safe-haven flows after U S lawmakers failed to make progress in fiscal relief negotiations. EUR/USD had already begun losing steam after an EU Commission paper highlighted how euro strength could hurt growth, slow inflation and put more pressure on the ECB nB5N28S02L.Then came news that U S House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin remained far from agreement on COVID-19 relief in several key areas after a phone discussion failed to bridge the divide nL1N2GS0X8.Following the news, EUR/USD retreated further from the day's peak of 1.1770.Its rally had been capped by resistance from the converged 21- and 55-day moving averages at 1.1774, with the downtrend line from September's high nearby at 1.1790.Underwhelming U S data had also forced EUR/USD to trim its gains, as did weakening stocks.Sharp drops in oil and copper, which should be in demand if the global economy is mending better than expected, contributed to unease about the reflation trades that the dollar has been sold to fund.The dollar index found support at its converging 21- and 55-DMAs, as well as the point where prices broke above their inverted head-and-shoulders neckline in September nL1N2GS0ZS. Sterling provided a spectacle of volatility, rising to the 38.2% Fibo of September's slide, 1.2979, before tumbling back to 1.2862, ahead of the earlier session and London morning low at 1.2819, on conflicting reports about EU-UK trade talks nL1N2GS0RM and legal action by the EU against the UK nL8N2GS1RC.Further clouding the pound and euro outlooks are ongoing COVID-19 outbreaks and fears of economically debilitating lockdowns nL8N2GR496nL8N2GS64K.USD/JPY ebbed and flowed inversely with stocks and risk acceptance, finding support ahead of Wednesday's lows. But demand for higher yielding and riskier trades is proving difficult to extinguish due to near- or sub-zero risk-free yields.That is limiting demand for the dollar -- which has overtaking the yen as top haven currency -- enough to keep USD/JPY below major resistance just beneath 106.AUD/JPY's recovery toward key 21- and 55-DMA resistance at 76.12/16 looks like a good demarcation point for who will win the risk-on or off battle -- and how well the haven dollar and yen will perform against the other major and high-beta currencies.Traders will scrutinize the U S employment report on Friday to gauge the recovery's progress without new pandemic fiscal support. For more click on FXBUZ Source:Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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