DEMOGRAPHIA: Demographics Development Impacts Market Research Urban Policy

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16th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey: 92 Major Markets, 2019: 3rd Quarter HOME OWNERSHIP: FOUNDATION OF AN AFFLUENT (AND THREATENED) MIDDLE-CLASS Australia . Canada . China (Hong Kong) . Ireland . New Zealand . Singapore . United Kingdom . United States Singapore is a model for developing and nurturing a prosperous middle-class. It was not always so. More than a half-century ago, the new post-colonial government inherited a third-world economy and slums characterized as “a disgrace to a civilized community.” The government established the Housing and Development Board (HDB), which resolved to encourage a property-owning democracy in Singapore and to enable Singapore citizens in the lower middle income group to own their own homes. This has been achieved by HDB and now Singapore has a GDP per capita above all but two of the world’s economies. This year’s Introduction, Focus on Singapore, describes how home-ownership has been the cornerstone of Singapore’s housing policy. However, both the middle-class and home ownership are under serious threat in many nations. OECD’s Under Pressure: The Middle-Class Squeeze describes the threat and finds that escalation of housing costs above incomes to be the most important cause. Severely unaffordable housing continues to plague many metropolitan areas. The least affordable in this year’s Survey are Hong Kong, with a Median Multiple (median house price divided by median household income) of 20.8, Vancouver (11.9), Sydney (11.0), Melbourne (9.5), Los Angeles (9.0), San Jose (8.5), San Francisco (8.4) and London (8.2). Each of these markets has urban containment regulation. This year’s edition also summarizes housing affordability research in Russia by the Institute for Urban Economics (Moscow). NATIONAL JOURNAL CITATIONThe Public Purpose: One of Four Top Transport Internet Sites In its 8 December 2001 issue, National Journal selected The Public Purpose as one of the top four transportation web sites. Also honored were two US Department of Transportation sites and the site of the Surface Transportation Policy Project. Demographia is the demographic Internet affiliate of The Public Purpose. The Public Purpose was again named one of the internet's best transport sites by National Journal in 2003. WENDELL COX IN PARIS ASSIGNMENTVisiting Professor in Transport Demographics in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 2009 Wendell Cox (principal of The Public Purpose and Demographia) served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers (CNAM) in Paris in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2008. This French national university has approximately 80,000 students and grants degrees to the doctoral level. It is in the core of Paris (3rd Arrondissement) at the Arts and Metiers Metro station and was established in the former Abbaye de St. Martin-des-Champs during the French Revolution. Mr. Cox has presented seminars and classes on U.S. and international public transport, intercity rail (including Amtrak), freight transport and world urban areas in Paris and Le Havre and conducted research on French and European demographics and transport. He also lectured at the University of Paris Institute of Urbanism and Politecnico di Milano. xxx14 15th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey: 91 Major Markets, 2018: 3rd Quarter ENDING THE HOUSING AFFORDABILITY CRISIS: TOWARD WELL FUNCTIONING CITIES Australia . Canada . China (Hong Kong) . Ireland . New Zealand . Singapore . United Kingdom . United States Alain Bertaud, of the New York University Marron Institute of Urban Management and former principal planner at The World Bank, describes urban planning tendencies deterring governments from allowing sufficient housing capacity to keep housing costs affordable, in his introduction to the 15th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey. Bertaud's new book, ( Order without Design: How Markets Shape Cities) calls for incorporating urban economics into urban policy, the failure of which has contributed mightily to the present international housing affordability crisis. The standard of living has been retarded and poverty increased in severely unaffordable markets. Bertaud summarizes the message of the Demographia Survey as "unaffordable housing is not an unavoidable fatality linked to economic success." For the 9th year a row, Hong Kong is the least affordable market, with a Median Multiple of 20.9 (median house price divided by median household income), the most unaffordable in the 15 years of the Survey. Vancouver (12.6) has displaced Sydney (11.7) as the second least affordable, followed by Melbourne (9.7), San Jose (9.4), Los Angeles (9.2) and Auckland (9.0). All of these severely unaffordable markets have developed in a local environment of urban containment regulation (before which, "affordable" Median Multiples of 3.0 or less were typical). 14th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey: 92 Major Markets, 2017: 3rd Quarter THE HOUSING AFFORDABILITY CRISIS: A MIDDLE-INCOME STANDARD OF LIVING CRISIS Australia . Canada . China (Hong Kong) . Ireland . Japan . New Zealand . Singapore . United Kingdom . United States London School of Economics Professors Felipe Carazzo, Paul Cheshire and Christian Hilber provide the introduction to the 14th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey. They note that "balanced assessment" of housing affordability requires "good measures." They further refer to Britain as "the originator of housing unaffordability" and the ideas of planning that have "contributed so much to the problem. " Indeed, the failure to retain well-functioning housing markets is a problem with widespread consequences. Where housing has become severely unaffordable, the standard of living has been retarded and poverty increased. This year's Survey shows that, for the 8th year a row, Hong Kong is the least affordable market, with a Median Multiple of 19.4 (median house price divided by median household income). Sydney is (again) second worst, at 12.9, followed again by #3 Vancouver at 12.6. San Jose (10.3), which is located in the San Francisco Bay Area has the fourth worst housing affordability and Los Angeles has the fifth worst housing affordability among the major markets. Before urban containment regulation, nearly all markets had housing markets that were affordable (Median Multiples of 3.0 or less). 13th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey: 92 Major Markets, 406 Total BEST CITIES FOR MIDDLE-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS: WHERE HOUSING IS AFFORDABLE Australia . Canada . Hong Kong . Ireland . Japan . New Zealand . Singapore . United Kingdom . United States Dr. Oliver Hartwich of the New Zealand Initiative states the issue squarely in his introduction to the 13th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey: "High house prices are not a sign of city's success but a sign of failure...," He also asserts that, without the "slightest doubt," "unaffordable housing is almost everywhere and every time caused by the same factor: housing supply restrictions." This year's report examines "best cities" and "livable cities" such as regularly rated by The Economist, and others finding that more affordable cities from the Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey have better middle-income outcomes. Again, Hong Kong has the least affordable housing, with house prices 18.1 times households incomes. Sydney is again second least affordable at 12.2, followed by Vancouver at 11.8, which along with Toronto (7.7) saw house prices rise equal to annual household incomes in just one year. The 9 nation, 92 major housing market survey placed Auckland 4th at 10.0, followed by San Jose (9.6), Melbourne (9.5), Los Angeles (9.3) and San Francisco (9.2). 12th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey: 87 Major Markets, 367 Total CONSENSUS BUILDING ON MIDDLE-INCOME HOUSING AFFORDABILITY CRISIS Australia . Canada . Hong Kong . Ireland . Japan . New Zealand . Singapore . United Kingdom . United StatesSenator Bob Day of the Australian Senate calls the economic consequences of present land use policies "devastating," in his introduction to the 12th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey. Noting that governments and central banks have been too quick to blame unprecedented housing affordability losses on demand factors and missed the "real culprit," the refusal of governments to provide an adequate and affordable supply of land for new housing stock to meet demand" (typically urban containment policy). Calling the crisis "wholly contrived" Senator Day calls it "a matter of political choice, not geographic reality", adding, "It is the product of restrictions imposed through planning regulation and zoning." This year, Hong Kong has the least affordable housing (Median Multiple of 19.0), followed by Sydney (12.2), Vancouver (10.8), with Auckland, Mlebourne, San Jose, San Francisco, London, Los Angeles and San Diego all exceeding Median Multiples of 8.0. In each of these markets, housing costs relative to incomes are triple or more their pre-urban containment levels. Many markets with liberal policies remain affordable, with Median Multiples of 3.0 or less. 11th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey (2014Q3)MIDDLE-INCOME HOUSING AFFORDABILITY REQUIRES A PLENTIFUL AND AFFORDABLE LAND SUPPLY378 Markets: Australia . Canada . China . Ireland . New Zealand . Singapore . United Kingdom . United States Dr. Shlomo Angel of the Stern School of Business (NYU) Urban Expansion Project puts the issue simply in his introduction: where expansion is effectively contained by draconian laws, it typically results in land supply bottlenecks that render housing unaffordable to the great majority of residents. This is indicated in the 11th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey, which shows the least affordable markets to be those with highly restrictive land use regulations (typically urban containment). In Hong Kong, Vancouver, Sydney, San Francisco, and elsewhere house prices are up to triple previous levels (income adjusted). The Demographia Survey perspective is that first and foremost, public policy should seek a better standard of living and less poverty. Housing is the largest item in household budgets. Angel rightly notes that housing affordability depends on plentiful and affordable land. 10th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability SurveyHOUSING AFFORDABILITY AND THE STANDARD OF LIVING: RESTORING GENUINE PRIORITIES 360 Markets: Australia . Canada . China . Ireland . New Zealand . Singapore . United Kingdom . United States Alain Bertaud, of New York University and former principal planner at The World Bank urges planners to "abandon abstract objectives and to focus their efforts on two measurable outcomes that have always mattered since the growth of large cities during the 19th century's industrial revolution: workers' spatial mobility and housing affordability" in his introduction. He says that "benign sounding objectives usually become a proxy for imposing planning regulations that severely limit the supply of buildable land and the number of housing units built, resulting in ever higher housing prices." Noting the importance of environmental issues, but reminds that "they should be considered a constraint to be solved not an end in itself." The 10th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey Survey focuses on the pivotal role of housing affordability in achieving the universal policy priorities of higher standards of living and poverty reduction. 9th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability SurveyHOUSING AFFORDABILITY: KEY TO ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SUSTAINABILITY 337 Markets: Australia . Canada . China (Hong Kong) . Ireland . New Zealand . United Kingdom . United StatesHon. Bill English, Deputy Prime Minister of New Zealand writes in the Introduction thatLand has been made artificially scarce by regulation that locks up land for development. This regulation has made land supply unresponsive to demand. When demand shocks occur, as they did in the mid-2000s in New Zealand and around the world, much of that shock translates to higher prices rather than more houses.This summarizes how urban containment policies ("smart growth" or "urban consolidation") raises house prices, reduces discretionary incomes and impedes the quality of life (while increasing poverty). The 9th Annual Survey chronicles the imperative for restoring housing affordability. 8th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability SurveyPRESERVING THE IDEAL OF A PROPERTY OWNING DEMOCRACY 325 Markets: Australia . Canada . China (Hong Kong) . Ireland . New Zealand . United Kingdom . United StatesLeast Affordable: Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, UK, Hong Kong, Vancouver, Sydney Prof. Robert Bruegmann notes that Residential real estate plays a huge and increasingly important role in the economy of every nation. He continues that a growing number of people who have looked at the figures have tended to agree that a good many well-meaning policies involving housing may be pushing up prices to such an extent that the negative side-effects are are more harmful than the problems the policies were intended to correct. This 8th edition shows improvements in many markets, but some, like Hong Kong, Vancouver and Sydney continue to be exhorbitantly expensive. The association between higher house prices and more restrictive land use regulation is clear, as is the conclusion that urban consolidation or smart growth is incompatible with affordable housing. 7th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability SurveyHOW OVERLY RESTRICTIVE LAND-USE POLICIES DENY HOME OWNERSHIP 325 Markets: Australia . Canada . Ireland . New Zealand . United Kingdom . United States . China (Hong Kong) Renown author Joel Kotkin notes that even after the bursting of the housing bubble implosion, house prices have risen well above incomes, in his introduction to the 7th edition. Kotkin cites markets such as Los Angeles, San Francisco, and New York, adding that: perhaps most remarkable has been the shift in Australia, once the exemplar of modestly priced, high quality middle class housing, to now the most unaffordable housing market... He disputes "progressives" who wrongly claim that dense urbanism is the preference of the next generation... He says this promotes a form of neo-feudalism which reverses the great social achievement of dispersing property ownership. Kotkin concludes that: The ideal ... should not ... be affordability alone but affordability coupled with economic growth and that broad based middle class prosperity depends in large part on housing affordability, and may do even more so in the future. Media Release . Research Summary: Smart Growth Housing Costs 6th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability SurveyPLAN-DRIVEN LAND USE REGULATION: MAKING HOUSING UNAFFORDABILITY PUBLIC POLICY272 Markets in Australia . Canada . Ireland . New Zealand . United Kingdom . United States Dr. Tony Recsei, President of Save Our Suburbs (SOS) in Sydney writes home ownership has been a source of boundless opportunity in his introduction to the 6th Edition. He says that urban planning policies are poised to reduce home ownership to nothing more "but a dream as vast numbers of young people and the underprivileged will never be able to raise a family within the security of their own home. Dr. Recsei systematically rebuts the notion that sustainability requires densification and concludes Unless we are vigilant, high-density zealots will do their best to reverse centuries of gains and drive us back towards a Dickensian gloom. This year's edition highlights the continuing deterioration of housing affordability in Australia and improvements in the United States, where values driven up in the housing bubble in some markets have returned to near the historic norms. Further, the Survey describes the process by which plan-driven land use regulation (growth management, urban consolidation, compact city policy or smart growth) makes land for housing development unaffordable and as a result places housing affordability beyond reach.Media Release . SOS Media Release 5th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability SurveyTHE UNACCEPTABLY HIGH HUMAN COSTS OF SMART GROWTH URBAN CONSOLIDATION265 Markets in Australia . Canada . Ireland . New Zealand . United Kingdom . United States Shlomo Angel, of Princeton University and New York University, one of the world's leading experts in urban planning writes in the preface to this 5th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey that ...the current efforts to contain the pace of the outward expansion of cities for one reason or another are, at the very least, open to serious question. Referring to land use regulation, he continues: The more stringent the restrictions, the less is the housing market able to respond to increased demand, and the more likely house prices are to increase. And when residential land is very difficult to come by, housing becomes unaffordable., This report describes the economic connection between that "smart growth"/"urban consoldiation" policies (prescriptive land use policies) and the unprecedented house price escalation that has occured in recent years in some markets. Moreover, the consequences have expanded well beyond housing. Without prescriptive land use regulation, the housing bubble in the United States would have been less severe; without a severe housing bubble, the US mortgage meltdown would not have occurred and without the US mortgage meltdown, the international financial crisis might not have occurred. It will be important to reform land use policies to prevent similar damage from occuring in the future. - - SMART GROWTH ASSOCIATED WITH RADICALLY HIGHER HOUSING COSTS IN THE UNITED STATESCosts of Sprawl Forecast Misses by a Mile It has been claimed that smart growth would reduce housing costs. A $13,000 (2007$) decline in new residential unit costs was predicted for 2000 to 2025 in Costs of Sprawl --- 2000, for markets with smart growth (prescriptive planning) compared to responsive planning systems. At this rate, a reduction of nearly $4,000 would have occurred between 2000 and 2007. The reality was starkly different. In just seven years, median house prices rose more than $160,000 in prescriptive planning areas relative to prices in markets with responsive planning. PENNSYLVANIA'S EFFICIENT TOWNSHIP GOVERNMENTStudy Shows Smaller Governments Have Far Lower Costs per Capita In this report commissioned by the Pennsylvania State Association of Township Supervisors, Demographia shows that the Commonwealth's smaller local governments have by far the lowest costs per capita, even when attributable spending is added and spending financed by state and federal sources is subtracted. This conclusion is in opposition to the "conventional wisdom," which is that larger governments are more efficient. In fact, the only "economies of scale" in larger governments are for special interest, which are able to exert control over larger government organizations with less effort and expenditure than would be necessary to control a myriad of smaller local governments. At the same time, smaller local governments are more effective because they are "closer to the people." NEW YORK'S EFFICIENT TOWN GOVERNMENTStudy Shows Smaller Governments Have Far Lower Costs per Capita In this report commissioned by the Association of Towns Of New York, Demographia shows that the Commonwealth's smaller local governments have by far the lowest costs per capita, even when attributable spending is added and spending financed by state and federal sources is subtracted. This conclusion is in opposition to the "conventional wisdom," which is that larger governments are more efficient. In fact, the only "economies of scale" in larger governments are for special interest, which are able to exert control over larger government organizations with less effort and expenditure than would be necessary to control a myriad of smaller local governments. At the same time, smaller local governments are more effective because they are "closer to the people." THE HEAVY PRICE OF SMART GROWTH AND URBAN CONSOLIDATION 4th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey Former Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Donald Brash writes in the introduction to this 4th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey that "the affordability of housing is overwhelmingly a function of just one thing, the extent to which governments place artificial restrictions on the supply of residential land." This report describes the economic consensus that "smart growth"/"urban consoldiation" have destoyed housing affordability in many urban areas. The scarcity produced by smart growth and urban consolidation markets has serious social and economic consequences. The resulting asset bubble has interfered with economic policies of central banks, as in the US and New Zealand. Yet, in responsive markets, housing affordabilty remains robust, including the three fastest growing large markets in the high income world, Atlanta, Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth and in other Canadian (such as Ottawa) US markets. SMART GROWTH URBAN CONSOLIDATION: INCOMPATIBLE WITH HOUSING AFFORDABILITY3rd Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey The unprecedented housing affordability crisis is worst in Australia, where years more income are now required to buy a home than just 10 years ago. Ireland, New Zealand and the United Kingdom have also become seriously unaffordable. Some markets in the United States and Canada are also severely unaffordable, especially on the Pacific Coast and in Northeast. Strong affordability continues in many markets, such as Atlanta, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Winnipeg, Ottawa, Quebec, Indianapolis Cincinnati and Kansas City. This edition includes a comparison of Perth,, Australia and Austin, Texas, similarly fast growing markets, but where the differences in housing affordability are like "night and day." The distinguishing feature is regulation --- smart growth and urban consolidation are associated with severe housing affordability losses. HOUSING AFFORDABILITY CRISIS: CAUSE NOT MICROECONOMICS2nd Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey Some economic analysts have attempted to blame the housing affordability crisis on demand or low interest rates. The reality, however, is that some of the most affordable housing markets (examples are Atlanta, Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston) also have the highest demand. The same low interest rates have been available both in the unaffordable and the affordable markets and cannot therefore be the cause of the housing affordability crisis. This Second Annual Demographia Housing Affordability Survey provdes a detailed examination of the issues behind the present structural and spotty housing affordability crisis. BLUEPRINT 2030: MOBILITY AND ACCESS FOR ATLANTATraffic Congestion Can be Reduced: The First Step is to Try In this report, Wendell Cox and Alan Pisarski show that Atlanta's intense traffic congestion, unusual for a low density urban area, is principally the cause of underinvestment in suburban roadways. Rejecting, the "maternity wards increase the birthrate" logic of " d demand," they show how the Atlanta area can improve its traffic flow, saving people time and improving economic efficiency. While the casual visitor to Atlanta may think the urban area well served by wide freeways, coverage of the urban area is sparse. In fact, Atlanta has the greatest extent of suburbanization in the world unserved by cross-town (lateral) freeways. Further, the area has a substandard arterial (non-freeway) road system. Nonetheless, significant improvements can be made with expenditures that are well within the capability of the local economy. Atlanta's continued growth could well depend upon it. AMERICAN DREAM THREATENED: BLACKS, HISPANICS AT GREATEST RISKGrowing Smart: Planners Would Confiscate Homes Not Consistent with Their Plans The American Plannning Association has developed a legislative guidebook containing model legislation which, if enacted would increase the price of housing, with the impact falling most heavily on lower income households, which are disproportionately African-American or Hispanic. Other provisions could force confiscation of houses where subsequent zoning changes render a use non-conforming. The model legislation is based upon the planning doctrine of smart growth, which like a previous planning doctrine, urban renewal, will make urban areas less attractive places to live. SMART GROWTH: DELUSION, NOT VISIONWendell Cox Closing Statement at Railvolution ConferenceOn December 1, Wendell Cox and Congressman Earl Blumenauer (D-Oregon) debated smart growth and transit at the annual Railvolution conference in San Francisco. Wendell Cox's closing statement is reproduced here. BADGE OF HONORWendell Cox Placed on Sprawlwatch ListWendell Cox and others are highlighted as opponents of the anti-sprawl movement. Cox stated that placement on the list was a "badge of honor." but that Sprawlwatch would have more correctly characterized those on the list as "pro-choice" with respect to urban development --- that people should have the freedom to live and work where they like. WENDELL COX OPED IN THE ATLANTA CONSTITUTIONPortland Not Sprawl Free: Atlanta Needs Other PoliciesDespite Atlanta's reputation for severe traffic congestion and low densities, Wendell Cox shows that the Atlanta area scores generally better on measures of transit use than Portland, which has gained an international reputation for policies intended to increase transit ridership and urban density. His conclusion is that Portland's policies would not solve Atlanta's traffic problems any more than they have Portland's. WENDELL COX OPED IN THE WASHINGTON TIMESA Straitjacket on GrowthNew urbanist and so-called "smart growth" policies promise to slow economic growth where implemented and could limit job creation and business expansion. Limitations on new "big-box" retailers is likely to limit job growth in construction trades and related industries. The telecommunications revolution and the expansion of regional jet service could erode the competitiveness of larger metropolitan areas, in combination with new urbanist and so-called "smart growth" initiatives. Smaller metropolitan areas are likely to benefit, as they welcome the growth turned away by metropolitan areas like Portland, Oregon. RESPONSE TO REPORT BY DAVID RUSKKeeping Kalamazoo Competitive: The Husock ReportThis report by Howard Husock of the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and Wendell Cox challenges the findings of the Kalamazoo County Compact by David Rusk and recommends competition based measures to improve the competitiveness of Kalamazoo. E-MAIL LISTUrban Policy Discussion Group Demographia sponsors an urban policy e- discussion list. urban development. Absent a material threat to other people or the community,people should have the freedom to live and work where and how they like. DEMOGRAPHIA and THE PUBLIC PURPOSE are undertakings ofWENDELL COX CONSULTANCYP. O. Box 841 - Belleville, IL 62222 USATelephone: +1.618.632.8507Contact UsDemographia is Affiliated with The Public Purpose, Twice A Top National Journal Internet Site

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