COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning

Announcement: We made our last daily update on March 7, 2021 (blog post). To learn more about Youyang’s current work on Covid inequality, click here.

We present a new, simple nowcasting model that estimates true infections in the US. We have estimates for all US states and all 3,000+ US counties. For vaccination projections in early 2021, see our Path to Normality page. Visit our About page to learn more about the different models.

For our historical maps, including county-level views, visit the Maps page.

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Recent Updates

For regular updates and insights, follow Youyang Gu on Twitter:  @youyanggu

See all of our past updates here.

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US Infections Estimates

More details | Detailed methodology

Last Updated: Monday, March 8, 2021 (1am ET)

Newly Vaccinated (as of Mar 7): 1,309,000 / day(651 / 100k)
Total Vaccinated (as of Mar 7): 17.9%(1 in 6 | 59.4 million)

Newly Infected (as of Feb 21): 152,000 / day (50 / 100k)
Currently Infected (as of Feb 21): 1 in 140(0.7% | 2.4 million)
Total Infected (as of Feb 21): 28.6%(1 in 3 | 95.1 million)

Rt (as of Feb 21): 0.94
Adjusted Positivity Rate (as of Mar 7): 4.0%
Infection-to-Case Ratio (as of Mar 7): 2.6 (38% detection rate)

Our infections estimates include all infected individuals of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, not just those that took a COVID-19 test and tested positive. As of early 2021, we estimate the true number of infected individuals in the US to be roughly 2-4x higher than the reported cases (25-50% detection rate). See our writeup, Estimating True Infections, for a more detailed look into this subject. Because not all currently infected individuals are infectious, we recommend dividing the “currently infected” estimate by 2-4 to get a sense of the number of currently infectious individuals.

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View US Infections Estimates

Note: We ended our infections estimates project on March 7, 2021. See our blog post here.

Below, we have infection and vaccination estimates for the US, all 50 states, DC, and 4 US territories. For county-level estimates, see the next section.

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US Counties Infections Estimates

We have infections estimates for all 3,000+ US counties (and county equivalents). Click on a state to view the counties in that state. You can then select the county to view detailed infection estimates. Or you can use our county-level summary page for fast lookup of specific counties.

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The below sections are from our old COVID-19 projections model, and are no longer being updated. But we will leave them here for your reference.

COVID-19 Projections (Not Actively Updated)

Note: We ended our death forecasting project on October 5, 2020. See our blog post here. You can find the old project below.

We present an intuitive COVID-19 model that adds machine learning techniques on top of a classic infectious disease model to make projections for infections and deaths for the US and 70 other countries. The countries our projections cover encompass 6.4 billion people and account for more than 95% of all global reported COVID-19 deaths.

Old Updates

See our old updates here.

View Projections

Below you can find our projections for every US state and 70 countries (including all 27 European Union countries). For reproduction number estimates, you can see also visit our Infections Tracker page.

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US

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US Counties

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Global Projections

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