VOX, CEPR Policy Portal

Web Name: VOX, CEPR Policy Portal

WebSite: http://voxeu.org





Inflation after the pandemic: Theory and practice Charles Goodhart, 13 June 2020 The correlation between monetary growth and inflation has an historic pedigree as long as your arm. This column argues that rejecting the likelihood of (eventually) rising velocity following the current massive monetary expansion requires an alternative theory of inflation that has successfully eluded all of us thus far. Ignoring the potential inflationary dangers is the equivalent to an ostrich putting its head in the sand, and while the path towards disinflation may be well known, it simply isn t available today. Social distancing and supply disruptions in a pandemic Martin Bodenstein, Giancarlo Corsetti, Luca Guerrieri, 12 June 2020 Drastic public health measures such as social distancing or lockdowns can reduce the loss of human life by keeping the number of infected individuals from exceeding the capacity of the health care system, but they are often criticised because of the social and the economic cost they entail. This column shows that the high peak of an infection not mitigated by social distancing may cause very large upfront economic costs in terms of output, consumption and investment that are amplified by supply disruptions as workers in essential industries become ill. Social distancing measures can reduce these costs, especially if skewed towards non-essential industries and occupations with tasks that can be performed from home, helping to smooth the surge in infections among workers in the essential sector. Slavery, sugar, and the African American family structure Graziella Bertocchi, Arcangelo Dimico, 12 June 2020 The Covid-19 outbreak and the murder of George Floyd have dramatically exposed the racial inequalities in US society. This column studies the association between the historical experience of slavery and the African American family structure. Results indicate that the extreme demographic conditions prevailing among slaves on sugar plantations in the US South may have persistently shaped African American family formation. Over the period of 1880-1940, higher sugar suitability is associated with a higher likelihood of single female headship among black households. Voluntary social distancing and lockdowns in the US Adam Brzezinski, Valentin Kecht, David Van Dijcke, 12 June 2020 Lockdown policies have been found to be effective in promoting social distancing and slowing down the spread of COVID-19. Yet, such measures are often blamed for downturns in the economy. This column argues that the lockdowns in the US are in fact efficient in minimising the costs of the epidemic, once both the economic and medical burden that would arise in the absence of such policies are considered. Estimates from a controlled SIR model, which includes the possibility for changes in behaviour, suggest that lockdowns reduce the costs of the pandemic by at least 1.7% of annual GDP compared to a no-lockdown scenario. Effectiveness of age-specific policies and testing for COVID-19 Luiz Brotherhood, Philipp Kircher, Cezar Santos, Michèle Tertilt, 12 June 2020 Governments worldwide locked down their economies in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This column considers two lockdown policies a stay-at-home order and a test-and-quarantine approach and their projected effects on deaths and GDP. Adjustments in individual behaviour, especially by the elderly, can save many lives, while lockdown policies targeted at the young prolongs the time need to reach herd immunity and could lead to more deaths in the long run. Testing and quarantining is an effective policy but requires about 10 million tests each week for the US alone. Adaptive diversification of COVID-19 policy Charles Manski, 12 June 2020 COVID-19, asset prices, and the Great Reallocation Marco Pagano, Christian Wagner, Josef Zechner, 11 June 2020 Persistent impacts of early social distancing Ajay Shenoy, 11 June 2020 COVID-19 and UK public finances Ethan Ilzetzki, 11 June 2020 From richer to poorer: COVID-19 phases in Germany Thomas Plümper, Eric Neumayer, 11 June 2020 A measure for latent social distancing M. Aykut Attar, Ayça Tekin-Koru, 11 June 2020 COVID-19: Narrative economics, public policy and mental health Annie Tubadji, Don Webber, Frederic Boy, 10 June 2020 Social capital and social distancing in the US Francesca Borgonovi, Elodie Andrieu, 10 June 2020 Rural hospital closures increase mortality Kritee Gujral, 10 June 2020 The health/wealth trade-off: Communication matters Vincenzo Carrieri, Maria De Paola, Francesca Gioia, 10 June 2020 The historical impact of immigration on US political ideology Paola Giuliano, Marco Tabellini, 10 June 2020 COVID-19, populism, and sustainable development Christian Kroll, 09 June 2020 Next Generation EU: A recovery plan for Europe Maarten Verwey, Sven Langedijk, Robert Kuenzel, 09 June 2020 Rising religiosity as a global response to COVID-19 fear Jeanet Bentzen, 09 June 2020 Insights into post-COVID-19 fiscal policies Sebastian Barnes, Eddie Casey, 09 June 2020 The scarring effects of employment bans for asylum seekers Francesco Fasani, Tommaso Frattini, Luigi Minale, 09 June 2020 Unconventional fiscal policy to exit the COVID-19 crisis Francesco D Acunto, Daniel Hoang, Michael Weber, 08 June 2020 To ease the health–wealth trade-off, reallocate digital property rights Dennis Snower, 08 June 2020 Socioeconomic determinants of Covid-19 infections and mortality Filipa Sá, 08 June 2020 Production networks and epidemic spreading: Re-opening the UK economy Anton Pichler, Marco Pangallo, R. Maria del Rio-Chanona, François Lafond, J. Doyne Farmer, 07 June 2020 The UK-EU negotiations in the time of coronavirus 15 - 15 June 2020 / online (Demio) / Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) and Centre for European Reform (CER) Exchange Rates in an Era of Volatile Capital Flows 18 - 19 June 2020 / Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia / The South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre Empirical Investigations in Services Trade Fourth Biennial Conference 22 - 23 June 2020 / Ankara, Turkey / The Trade Policy Research Network, CEPR, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, EUI, Florence and TEDU-TRC Levelling up the economy beyond Covid-19 23 - 23 June 2020 / Zoom / the Joseph Ronwtree Foundation International Research Conference Monetary Policy, (Macro-)Prudential Regulation and Their Interactions 7 - 8 July 2020 / Saint Petersburg, Russia / Bank of Russia


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