Fearnleys Weekly Report
Time 2022-09-30 04:13:06Web Name: Fearnleys Weekly Report
WebSite: http://www.fearnpulse.com
ID:334383
Keywords:
Fearnleys,Weekly,ReportDescription:
Fearnleys
Weekly Report
Week 39 - September 30, 2022
Tankers Dry Bulk Gas Newbuilding Sale & Purchase Market Brief
01
Tankers
VLCC
A couple of quiet days and the tide can turn. However, owners can not be blamed for profit taking, when seeing TCE returns in the USD 80’s per day. Decreasing bunker costs coupled with a quiet cargo list, owners are checking out at numbers lower than last done (mid WS 90's MEG/East, sub USD 10m USG-China). October is looking a lighter month, perhaps unsurprising after a near record cargo count in September for overall VLCC fixings driven by the MEG and USG. However, recession fears in the West and inevitable decreases in US SPR releases, will mean less USG exports going forward. With the OPEC+ 'threatening' to cut production to support oil prices, we may be close to peak VLCC volumes for now. Also worth noting, hurricane Ian may shut in up to 2 mbpd in the Gulf of Mexico and causing delay potential.
Suezmax
The main support mechanism for the global Suezmax market right now is VLCC sentiment, and without this very tenuous link the pure fundamentals of this market, at least in the ultra-short term, are weaker. Let’s start off with the Black Sea which had a very industrious first decade but has now slowed to a whimper for the second, as a mixture of TC/OP listings have taken momentum away from that region. This has left us with a chunk of prompt vessels (or close to being prompt) in this region now missing the Black Sea/Med fixing window, who will now have to gamble on prompter Med cargoes popping out, or, as will most likely be the case, force the majority into entertaining West Africa at lower levels. The East is similarly fundamentally weak and in need of further enquiry to maintain present levels.
Aframax
End of last week the Nsea Aframax market gained some momentum as charterers showed their cards and owners seized the opportunity to dig their heels in and ask for higher rates than last done. This week rates have continued to firm on the back of increased activity. Unless bigger sizes come into play, we expect rates to remain firm as the tonnage list is looking quite thin in the area for any cargoes loading up to 10th October. The Med market moved sideways last week as activity remained firm and some ships ballasted away from the area seeking business elsewhere. The position list looks tight in the front end, but with dates moving forward and some more ballasters ex East the current upside potential could be dampened a bit. However, if the activity continues, we expect the market to remain healthy.
Rates
Dirty
(Spot WS 2021, Daily Change)
Click rate to view graph
MEG/WEST
280'
50.0
-5.0
MEG/Japan
280'
92.5
-7.5
MEG/Singapore
280'
93.5
-9.0
WAF/FEAST
260'
92.5
-7.5
WAF/USAC
130'
135.0
0.0
Sidi Kerir/W Med
135'
147.5
-5.0
N. Arf/Euromed
80'
200.0
10.0
UK/Cont
80'
210.0
55.0
Caribs/USG
70'
235.0
-10.0
1 Year T/C
(USD/Day, Weekly Change)
Click rate to view graph
VLCC
Modern
$37,500
-$2,500
Suezmax
Modern
$32,000
$0
Aframax
Modern
$34,000
$0
VLCCs
Click rate to view graph
Fixed in all areas last week
52
-3
Available in MEG next 30 days
140
5
1 Year T/C Crude
Loading...02
Dry Bulk
Capesize
Last week ended positive as all segments improved with all the west Australian miners being present, south Brazil pushing with Vale covering several liftings and spot tonnage in the north being covered. However, the positiveness disappeared this week as Pacific went from being very busy last week to very quiet this week. Hence, we see a 27% decline in time charter hire week on week for the west Australia to China round trip. Though Pacific has been disappointing so far this week, and general sentiment is weaker, the north Atlantic still holding and Vale still being fairly active thus we see the market holding.
Panamax
Seemingly the Atlantic saw something of a revival this week with some decent levels of activity in the North. Primarily there remained some disparity between the grain and mineral trades with the former still paying a premium with improved levels concluded and sentiment turned a little on the back of some further better deals. The Asian market appeared under pressure from the get-go, with both the Indonesia and NoPac round trips losing further ground as supply/demand fundamentals played out.
Supramax
General situation remains across the Supra desk that demand growth is 0% whereas fleet growth keeps ticking upwards. Discharge waiting times are also down on last year, causing further downward pressure on markets.
Tick downturn on the last weeks activity from the USG, where fhauls were discussed at around USD 23,000. Trip from Cont to USG being concluded about USD 18,000 on Supramax. Bhaul from CJK to Cont were done at USD 20,000. Nopac round on Ultramax being fixed around USD 19,500. Supra from Indonesia with coal run to India concluded around USD 21,750.
Tick more period activity but not at the improved levels though. Ultramax was covered for 3-4 mos at 20k with delivery Atlantic and redelivery ww, another Ultra open in Far East was fixed in the low USD 18,000 for one year.
Rates
Capesize
(USD/Day, USD/Tonne, Daily Change)
Click rate to view graph
TCE Cont/Far East
180'
$39,688
$2,038
Australia/China
$8.9
-$0.5
Pacific RV
$13,773
-$2,432
Panamax
(USD/Day, USD/Tonne, Daily Change)
Click rate to view graph
Transatlantic RV
$16,500
$840
TCE Cont/Far East
$26,418
$1,023
TCE Far East/Cont
$14,039
-$207
TCE Far East RV
$17,895
-$682
Supramax
(USD/Day)
Click rate to view graph
Atlantic RV
$18,970
$720
Pacific RV
$16,294
$430
TCE Cont/Far East
$19,346
$596
1 Year T/C
(USD/Day, Weekly Change)
Click rate to view graph
Newcastlemax
208'
$19,000
-$500
Kamsarmax
82'
$18,000
$500
Ultramax
64'
$18,000
$1,500
Capesize
180'
$15,250
-$250
Panamax
75'
$16,500
$500
Supramax
58'
$15,000
$0
Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
1799
1 Year T/C Dry Bulk
Loading...03
Gas
Chartering
EAST
After last week’s fixing frenzy and this week’s APPEC conference in Singapore, activity has comparably slowed down. We have seen about 20 spot fixtures concluded from the Middle East in October, but still expect to see a handful of remaining cargoes before focus shifts to November. Freight ideas remain firm with most owners’ ideas now in the USD 80s RT/C for next Eastern business.
WEST
After having seen a lot of fixing in the West the last 4-5 weeks, we are now witnessing a more quiet week. It looks like October-fixing is currently over as the last remaining ships this period have been programmed. Trader relets are currently dominating a very tight position list while the big shipowners seemingly are sold out until the middle of November.
We have seen a dozen November deals in the USG so far, with last done at USD 130 H/C and 70 H/F, and there is a lot more to be done going forward.
LPG Rates
Spot Market
(USD/Month, Weekly Change)
Click rate to view graph
VLGC
84'
$1,800,000
$200,000
LGC
60'
$1,200,000
$350,000
MGC
38'
$900,000
$0
HDY SR
20-22'
$725,000
$25,000
HDY ETH
17-22'
$780,000
$30,000
ETH
8-12'
$490,000
$0
SR
6.5'
$440,000
-$10,000
COASTER Asia
$270,000
$0
COASTER Europe
$310,000
$0
LPG/FOB Prices - Propane
(USD/Tonne, Weekly Change)
Click rate to view graph
FOB North Sea/Ansi
$635
$0
Saudi Arabia/CP
$650
$0
MT Belvieu (US Gulf)
$454
-$70
Sonatrach/Bethioua
$640
$0
LPG/FOB Prices - Butane
(USD/Tonne, Weekly Change)
Click rate to view graph
FOB North Sea/Ansi
$599
$0
Saudi Arabia/CP
$630
$0
MT Belvieu (US Gulf)
$423
-$55
Sonatrach/Bethioua
$612
$0
LNG Rates
Spot Market
(USD/Day, Weekly Change)
Click rate to view graph
East of Suez 155-165k CBM
$200,000
$50,000
West of Suez 155-165k CBM
$200,000
$55,000
1 Year T/C 155-165k TFDE
$165,000
$22,000
04
Newbuilding
Activity Levels
Tankers
Slow
Dry Bulkers
Slow
Others
Moderate
Prices
(Million USD, Weekly Change)
VLCC
300'
$121
$0
Suezmax
150'
$81
$0
Aframax
110'
$64
$0
Product
50'
$44
$0
Newcastlemax
210'
$66
$0
Kamsarmax
82'
$38
$0
Ultramax
64'
$36
$0
LNGC (MEGI) (cbm)
170'
$240
$0
05
Sale & Purchase
Prices
06
Market Brief
Exchange Rates
(Daily Change)
USD/JPY
144.66
2.53
USD/NOK
10.93
-0.01
USD/KRW
1440.00
7.25
EUR/USD
1.05
0.00
Interest Rates
(Daily Change)
LIBOR USD (6 month)
4.17%
-0.03%
NIBOR NOK (6 month)
2.58%
0.00%
Commodity Prices
(Daily Change)
Brent Spot
$89.50
$3.50
Bunker Prices
(Daily Change)
Singapore
380 CST
$387
-$23
MGO
$900
-$44
Spread MGO/380 CST
$513
-$22
Rotterdam
380 CST
$410
-$32
MGO
$964
-$36
Spread MGO/380 CST
$554
-$4
Loading...
MEG/WEST
Loading...MEG/Japan
Loading...MEG/Singapore
Loading...WAF/FEAST
Loading...WAF/USAC
Loading...Sidi Kerir/W Med
Loading...N. Afr/Euromed
Loading...UK/Cont
Loading...Caribs/USG
Loading...VLCC
Loading...Suezmax
Loading...Aframax
Loading...Capesize
Loading...Panamax
Loading...Supramax
Loading...VLGC
Loading...LGC
Loading...MGC
Loading...HDY SR
Loading...HDY ETH
Loading...ETH
Loading...SR
Loading...COASTER Asia
Loading...COASTER Europe
Loading...FOB North Sea/Ansi
Loading...Saudi Arabia/CP
Loading...MT Belvieu (US Gulf)
Loading...Sonatrach/Bethioua
Loading...FOB North Sea/Ansi
Loading...Saudi Arabia/CP
Loading...MT Belvieu (US Gulf)
Loading...Sonatrach/Bethioua
Loading...East of Suez 155-165k CBM
Loading...West of Suez 155-165k CBM
Loading...1 Year T/C 155-165k TFDE
Loading...VLCCs fixed in all areas last week
Loading...VLCCs available in MEG next 30 days
Loading...TCE Cont/Far East
Loading...Australia/China
Loading...Pacific RV
Loading...Transatlantic RV
Loading...TCE Cont/Far East
Loading...TCE Far East/Cont
Loading...TCE Far East RV
Loading...Pacific RV
Loading...TCE Cont/Far East
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