FootballPerspective.com NFL History and Stats

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For the sake of argument, let s just assume that there is no 2020 NFL season, or that a 2020 NFL season is cut extremely short after just a couple of games. How would the NFL go about preparing a 2021 Draft Order?I have seen 3 main ideas floated around:Just re-do last year s draft order, which seems to me to be a bit unfair. It assumes that the teams that were bad in 2019 will also be bad in 2020.A completely random draft order.  This has the advantage of being ex ante fair there is no advantage to being the Jets or the Raiders or the Cowboys but would be extremely unfair ex post: the team that gets the 32nd pick would be at a severe disadvantage to the team that gets the 1st pick.Let s say you and 31 friends came upon a bag containing $32,000.  It would be very simple and fair to split it $1K for each of you.  Now, you certainly could  engage in a winner-takes-all coin flip battle until there is one person who gets the full $32,000.  And that would be ex ante fair, as all of you would have the same chance of getting it.  But it wouldn t feel fair after the fact.This feels particularly important for the NFL, when you have a blue chip quarterback prospect.Base the draft order on an average of each team s record over the last 3 or 4 or 5 years.  This might feel fairer, but what does that have to say about how good these teams are now?  The Patriots would pick last under this scenario, and New England could turn into a below-average team in 2020.  The 49ers would have a top-8 pick.What I would propose is a draft system that is ex post fair, or at least as fair as we can make it. In a world with no 2020 NFL or college football season, nobody can say with any confidence which teams will be the best in 2021. And you risk creating a lot of backlash among fans if a team lucks into the first overall pick. So the goal of a draft in this hypothetical should be to create an outcome that is relatively fair among all teams.That sounds hard to do, but it is not impossible. Here is what I am thinking.How 27 of the 32 teams would draftLet s ignore the top 5 picks in the Draft for now; five teams will get the first five picks, and we will deal with them later. Let s look at the other 27 teams. What the NFL should do is give Team 1 the 6th pick in the first round, Team 2 the 7th pick, Team 3 the 8th pick, and so on, through the end of the first round . and then go in reverse order for the second round, and keep that reverse order for the rest of the draft (which will be 8 rounds). So Team 1 would receive picks 6, 59 (the last pick in the second round), 86 (the last pick in the third round), 113, 140, 167, 194, and 221, while team 28 would have picks 32, 33, 60, 87, 114, 141, 168, and 195.Now, is that fair? According to the traditional Jimmy Johnson chart, the teams with early picks would still do better, but not by much; and, in fact, teams at the end would tend to fare slightly better than teams in the middle. [continue reading ]TweetToday s guest post comes from one of the longest followers of this blog (and its predecessor), Richie Wohlers. Richie is an accountant from Southern California who is a Dolphins fan despite never being to Florida. As always, we thank our guest posters for contributing.Inspired by Bill James’s Game Score for pitchers, I’ve been tracking something similar for quarterbacks.This is just a simple way to look at box score stats for a quarterback to see who had the most statistically impressive games.  This is not taking things into account such as win probabilities, air yards, EPA, opponent quality, etc.  More importantly, there are no era adjustments, so this is biased in favor of modern players. That said, the goal was just to create a single number to back up the “awe” factor we may have seen while watching the game.Methodology:There are five components to my game score.  They are each weighted equally, though (as with passer rating) completion percentage ends up getting “double-counted” with yards per attempt.  The categories are: Total Yards, Touchdown Passes, Completion Percentage, Yards per Attempt and Interception Percentage.  Each category is worth 20 points, so a perfect game would be worth 100 points.The threshold for each category is based on the best performance of all time.  Those thresholds are:Yards: 554 (Norm Van Brocklin, 1951)Touchdowns: 7 (6 times, most recently Drew Brees in 2015)Completion Percentage (min 15 attempts): 96.7% (Drew Brees, 2019)Yards/Attempt (min 15 attempts): 20.5 (Craig Morton, 1970)Interception Percentage: Each percentage point deducts two points from a player’s score.  (Drew Brees is the highest-rated QB to throw an interception, when he threw for 511 yards, 7 TD and 2 Int in 2015.  It ranks as the 19th-best game.)A player’s portion of those records is multiplied by 20.  So when Patrick Mahomes threw for 443 yards last season, that was worth ( 443 / 554 = 0.8 * 20 )  16 points.The top 10 performances: [continue reading ]TweetLet s get it out of the way: playing with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning sure helps. From 2007 to 2013, Wes Welker had the best seven year stretch of his career, and most of that time came with Brady as his quarterback (there was one season with Matt Cassel and the 2013 record-breaking season with Manning). During those seven seasons, Welker s teams averaged a remarkable 32.3 points per game. In 2014, Welker s team still the Broncos also topped 30 points per game, but the other seasons of Welker s career were spent on significantly less productive offenses.Of course, in most of those other seasons, Welker himself wasn t a significant part of the offense: he was a young backup or a past-his-prime player. I wanted to calculate how many points per game each wide receiver s offense scored over his career. This is trickier than you d think: what do you do for years where a player was a backup, or missed time due to injury? For Welker, he played 14 games with the 2004 Dolphins but as a returner and did not catch a pass. Would that team count in his career average?To solve for these problems, I weighted each season by the percentage of career receiving yards he gained in that season.  Welker gained 9,924 receiving yards in his career.  In 2015 with the Rams, he gained 102 yards, or 1.0% of his career total.  That isn t much, so the Rams production that year 17.5 points per game, or 5.31 PPG below average counts for 1.0% of Welker s career score.  The 2013 Broncos averaged 37.88 PPG, 14.47 better per game than league average; since Welker gained 7.8% of his career yards that season, the 2013 Broncos stats count for 7.8% of his career total.  Welker s best year was 2011, when he gained 1,569 yards.  That represented 15.8% of his career total, so the 2011 Patriots 32.06 points per game, 9.88 points per game above league average counts for 15.8% of Welker s career grade.If you perform this analysis for every season of Welker s career, his team s averaged 30.13 points per game once you weight for Welker s production, which was 8.11 points per game above average. Here s the math: the final two columns represent the product of multiplying his percentage of career receiving yards in that season by his team s scoring (both raw and relative to league average): [continue reading ]TweetThe GWTD King.Last week, I looked at which running backs and wide receivers have scored the most game-winning touchdowns. Today, I am reproducing the same analysis but for quarterbacks: who has thrown the most game-winning touchdowns? As before, a touchdown qualifies as a game-winning touchdown if all of the following four criteria are met:It occurs in the 4th quarter or in overtime;The scoring team was not winning prior to the touchdownThe scoring team was winning after the touchdown, including the extra point1; andIf the touchdown (plus point after) gave the winning team more points than the losing team scored all game. So if a team is down 21-17 and scores a touchdown to go ahead 24-21, and that team ultimately wins 31-27, that does not count as a game-winning touchdown. But if they win 31-21, it does.Got it? Great. I looked at all games, regular and postseason, in the NFL, AFL, and AAFC and counted all game-winning touchdowns by this metric. As it was back in 2013, Baltimore Colts legend Johnny Unitas remains the king. He had 23 game-winning touchdown passes and also ran for one more, giving him a record 24 game-winning touchdowns on his resume: [continue reading ]TweetHowever, if a team was down by 7, scored a touchdown, went for two and converted, that touchdown does not count as a game-winning touchdown. So in this Cowboys/Giants game from 2018, Dallas was down 35-28 with just over a minute to play when Dak Prescott threw a touchdown pass. After the play, the Cowboys went for 2 and converted, and won 36-35. But I am not crediting Prescott with a game-winning touchdown pass. Had Dallas been down 34-28 when Prescott threw his touchdown, he would receive credit for a game-winning touchdown pass assuming the Cowboys hit the ensuing extra point. Prescott in fact threw the game-winning 2-point conversion, but that is a separate category. [ ]Seven years ago, I wrote about game-winning touchdowns.  A touchdown qualifies as a game-winning touchdown if all of the following four criteria are met:It occurs in the 4th quarter or in overtime;The scoring team was not winning prior to the touchdownThe scoring team was winning after the touchdown, including the extra point1; andIf the touchdown (plus point after) gave the winning team more points than the losing team scored all game. So if a team is down 21-17 and scores a touchdown to go ahead 24-21, and that team ultimately wins 31-27, that does not count as a game-winning touchdown.  But if they win 31-21, it does.Got it? Great.  I looked at all games, regular and postseason, in the NFL, AFL, and AAFC and counted all game-winning touchdowns by this metric.  As it was in 2013, Marcus Allen remains the all-time leader in game-winning touchdowns.  He had 10 game-winning touchdowns, in the following games: [continue reading ]TweetHowever, if a team was down by 7, scored a touchdown, went for two and converted, that touchdown does not count as a game-winning touchdown.  So in this Cowboys/Giants game from 2018, Dallas was down 35-28 with just over a minute to play when Cole Beasley caught a touchdown pass. After the play, the Cowboys went for 2 and converted, and won 36-35.  But I am not crediting Beasley with a game-winning touchdown catch.  Had Dallas been down 34-28 when Beasley caught his touchdown, he would receive credit for a game-winning touchdown assuming the Cowboys hit the ensuing extra point. [ ]In 1960, Cleveland s Milt Plum was the most efficient passer in the NFL. He arguably outshined teammate and running back Jim Brown, who was in his prime and finished as the leader in rushing yards while averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Cleveland led the NFL in points scored, and Plum finished with a passer rating of 110, more than 10 points higher than any player achieved in the decade of the 50s. In three games against the Steelers, Eagles, and Cardinals, he went 37-for-51 for 791 yards with 5 TDs and 0 interceptions! Cleveland was probably the best team in the NFL in 1960 due to the presence of Plum, Jim Brown, Bobby Mitchell, and Ray Renfro on offense, but the Browns had a 1-3-1 record in one-score games. As a result, the team s 8-3-1 record left them as the runner up to the Philadelphia Eagles for the 1960 NFL East division crown. Philadelphia was a great team, of course, too, but the team s 10-2 record was boosted by a 5-1 mark in games decided by a touchdown or less, including a last-second win over Cleveland that changed the season:With time running down, the Eagles took over at their 10 yard line. Van Brocklin passed to Retzlaff for 27 yards and then McDonald for 12 to just short of midfield. However, it appeared that Cleveland would win when safety Bobby Franklin came up with an interception, but LB Vince Costello was flagged for pass interference and the Eagles, instead of losing the ball, now had a first down at the Browns 30. [continue reading ]TweetA few months ago, I calculated the concentration index for each passing offense in the NFL.  For new readers, don t be scared: a passing offense s Concentration Index is simple to calculate, and it measures how concentrated a team’s passing offense is among a small or large number of players.  To calculate, you take each player’s receiving yards and divide that by his team’s total receiving yards.  Once you get that number, you square it, and then do that for each player on the offense and add the totals.  The most concentrated passing offense in 2019 was in New Orleans. For the Saints, Michael Thomas gained 38.9%; the square of that is 15.2%.  Jared Cook was second on the team with 705 yards, or 15.9% of the team’s receiving yards; the square of that number is 2.5%.  Do this for every player, and the Saints have a total Concentration Index of 21.1%… which is highly concentrated, at least by 2019 standards.  Here is the full table: [continue reading ]TweetYesterday, I looked at the NFL teams since 1970 that got the most (in terms of winning percentage) out of their passing games. These were teams that were dragged down by their passing offense. Today, the opposite: passing offenses that were dragged down by the rest of the team.And let s begin with Manning. Because no passing offense was ever let down more by the rest of his team than one of Manning s dome teams. Of course, I am referring to Archie Manning and the 1980 Saints, who went 1-15 despite having an above-average passing offense. New Orleans finished 6th in completion percentage and 10th in ANY/A in 1980, but New Orleans allowed a then-record 6,218 yards of offense to opponents season. The Saints allowed 487 points, a mark that still ranks as the worst in franchise history.Behind Manning, the Saints averaged 5.19 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, which was +0.33 better than league average. As a result, this means among all teams since 1970, the 80 Saints were 0.28 standard deviations better than average at passing. However, with a 1-15 mark, those Saints were 2.27 standard deviations below average at winning. Using the methodology described yesterday, this means the 1980 Saints get a grade of -2.55, indicating an extreme lack of help for the passing offense. That is the worst result of any team since the merger.The next 3 teams on the list are all 49ers teams. In 2000, Jeff Garcia, Terrell Owens, a 38-year-old Jerry Rice, and Charlie Garner powered one of the best offenses in the NFL. The 49ers ranked in the top 5 in yards per play and led the league in turnovers and yet went 6-10, thanks to a defense and special teams that was just as bad as the 49ers offense was good. In 1982, the strike-shortened season, Joe Montana and Dwight Clark were a lethal combination, but the team won 3 games, blew 3 games in the 4th quarter, and lost another 3 games. Montana and the 49ers had the best passing attack in the NFC that season, but a defense that significantly regressed. And in 1979, in the first year of Bill Walsh, San Francisco had a similar situation: Steve DeBerg and the 49ers had an above-average passing offense, but the defense couldn t stop a nosebleed, ranking in the bottom 3 in both ANY/A and points allowed.The full results, below: [continue reading ]TweetLast year, Lamar Jackson had an MVP season, playing a huge role in Baltimore leading the NFL in points scored. Surprisingly, Baltimore didn t have many other offensive players receive much All-Pro recognition: LT Ronnie Stanley and RG Marshal Yanda were both first-team All-Pros, but that was it. But this made me wonder, which league-leading offense had the least All-Pro recognition?In 1985, the San Diego Chargers led the NFL in points scored. That year, Dan Fouts was a 1st-team All-Pro selection at quarterback by the NEA, while Dan Marino was a 1st-team All-Pro by all the other major organizations (AP, Sporting News, Pro Football Weekly). For purposes of today s post, I am treating all organizations equally, and therefore both Fouts and Marino would get credited with being a 1st-team All-Pro.The Chargers didn t have many other honors on offense, though: the only other recognition went to RB Lionel James and LT Jim Lachey, who were each 2nd-team All-Conference selections from the UPI. But that s only the second-least decorated offense since 1970 among teams that have led the league in scoring. One team had just one 1st-team All-Pro and the only other all-pro honor was one 2nd-team All-Conference selection. Can you guess the team? [continue reading ]TweetTexas Southern s Homer Jones was a huge star for the Giants.Sixteen players from historically black colleges entered pro football in the 1960s and are now in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Ten of them joined the AFL: Willie Brown, Charlie Joiner, Ken Houston, Larry Little, Buck Buchanan, Art Shell, Willie Lanier, Winston Hill, Elvin Bethea, and Emmitt Thomas.  By comparison, only six future Hall of Famers entered the NFL from HBCUs despite the senior league having more teams: Deacon Jones, Lem Barney, Rayfield Wright, Leroy Kelly, Bob Hayes, and Claude Humphrey.1  And the lasting image of the AFL-NFL wars was Super Bowl IV, a game that saw the 12-point underdog Chiefs, with 8 starters from historically black colleges, upset a Vikings team with zero such players.  Those are two of the big reasons, along with actual words from those in pro football at the time, that the AFL was considered ahead of the curve when it came to bringing in players from these tiny schools.On the other hand, as we ll soon see, the narrative doesn t quite match up with the facts.  Three of the ten AFL players Thomas, Brown, and Hill were not selected in the AFL Draft; Hill was chosen by the Colts in the NFL Draft,2 while the other two went undrafted in both leagues. More importantly, six of those 10 AFL Hall of Famers entered the AFL in 1967 or later, which came after the creation of a common draft.3 These players made most of their marks in the 70s, and are remembered as NFL stars, now AFL ones. By the time they entered pro football, the AFL had already won: a merger had been agreed upon by the teams, and the credibility of the league had been established.  Sure, it was still the inferior league, and it wasn t until the Jets and Chiefs both won Super Bowls that the league was truly viewed as comparable to the NFL, but the 1967 AFL was very different than the 1961 AFL.  When we talk about the AFL as an upstart league that challenged the NFL and won, we are mostly talking about the AFL prior to the 1967 season.And if we look at the most dominant players who entered pro football from HBCUs between 1960 and 1966, you get a different story.  Sure, Buchanan was a big star, but arguably five of the six biggest stars from HBCUs in the 60s were actually in the NFL: Deacon Jones, Roger Brown, Rosey Taylor, Leroy Kelly, and Bob Hayes.So let s take a deeper dive and analyze how the two leagues really approached players from HBCUs prior to 1967.  From 1960 to 1966, the two leagues battled over talent, and the AFL s surprising ability to keep pace is what led to the AFL-NFL merger, announced in June of 1966. Because I am focusing on the talent battle, I am really focused on the two drafts, but will note key undrafted players (and there were several). [continue reading ]TweetHowever, most of the best players in the next tier from HBCUs were in the NFL. Harold Jackson, L.C. Greenwood, Jethro Pugh, Roger Brown, Rosey Taylor, John Gilliam, Coy Bacon, and Homer Jones all entered the NFL from HBCUs in the 1960s. The most notable non-HOFers in the AFL from HBCUs were Ken Riley, Bill Thompson, Otis Taylor, and Rich Jackson. [ ]He was soon cut and then signed by the Jets; it probably didn t help that the Colts spent the 5th pick in the same draft on a future 5-time Pro Bowler at the same position. [ ]Joiner never started a game in the AFL. Shell started one game. Little and Bethea made the AFL Pro Bowl in 69, but had the overwhelming majority of their success in the NFL. Lanier and Houston made two Pro Bowls in the AFL, but still had the vast majority of their success in the NFL. The same could be said for a 7th player in Thomas, who entered the AFL in 66. [ ]This is the tenth installment in my roughly one million part series The Grand List, or: the top 1000 pro football players ever, or something like that. Keep in mind I have forced myself to order these players, and that ordinal rankings naturally imply a bigger (or, sometimes, smaller) difference than really exists. While you d be crazy to swap one of these guys with Tom Brady or Lawrence Taylor, at this point in the list, most players are interchangeable with one another and are often determined by preference. This isn t the definitive list. It s just a big list,1 and mine s no better than yours.Previous articles in the seriesThe Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.Let s do this. [continue reading ]TweetBased on a wealth of information [ ]Yesterday, I looked at how both the NFL and the upstart AFL dealt with the issue of integration in pro football. The common reframe is that the young, nontraditional AFL was more innovative and enlightened than the NFL, particularly on the issue of black players in pro football and the scouting of talent from small historically black colleges. The numbers don t bear that out with black players generally, but today I want to focus on the game that is most responsible for creating that narrative: Super Bowl IV. [continue reading ]TweetThe AFL was the rare upstart league that challenged the NFL and won. Part of the narrative in that victory is that the AFL was much more welcoming to black players, especially those from a traditionally overlooked source: small, historically blacked colleges. There are elements of truth in that version of history: there was still a hostile attitude from some teams (notably Washington) towards black players at the end of the 1950s,  and the NFL did a poor job scouting at historically black colleges during that decade. The NFL, as hard as this may be for you to imagine, also had a degree of hubris that may have turned off some prospects. Over the next two days, I want to dive into the AFL and NFL wars over signing talent.  Today, an examination of black players by the leagues; tomorrow, a focus on players from historically black colleges.Black Players In the 1950sBrown was a rookie and league MVP in 1957.At the start of the 1950s, most NFL teams did not have a single black player on their roster.  During the 1954 season, there were only 31 black players in the NFL, or about 3.4 per team.  Notably, 8 of those players went on to make the Pro Football Hall of Fame; the success of black players in the 50s helped usher in the next generation in the 60s. By 1955, all NFL teams had a black player other than Washington, who would not until 1962.   But at least one sometimes meant just that: when the Detroit Lions won the NFL championship in 1957, the team had just one black player: future Hall of Fame back John Henry Johnson.1  Their opponents, the Cleveland Browns, had five black players, led by rookie and league MVP Jim Brown. [continue reading ]TweetThe 53 Lions were also the last all-white team to win an NFL championship. [ ]It s time for part nine of The Grand List, or: the top 1000 players ever, or something. Today s post has a little something for everyone: active players, champions, Super Bowl MVPs, should-be Super Bowl MVPs, huge receivers, diminutive running backs, cool nicknames, and probably some other nonsense. Part nine covers players 779-750.Previous articles in the seriesThe Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.Let s roll The List, Continued779. Darnell Dockett (2004-2014)Defensive TackleArizona CardinalsDockett didn t play the run. Maybe he couldn t play the run. However, he was an excellent interior pass rusher who had the ability to change games. Given the difference in relative importance of stopping the run versus stopping the pass, Dockett s pros more than cancelled out his cons. He wasn t a liability he was a visionary. A rollercoaster ride of a player, it is fair to label him inconsistent. But when he turned it on, he looked like he was bound for Canton (the one in Ohio). He didn t produce one incredible game after another, like some of the defenders near the top of this list, but he was usually effective and good for a few performances per season that really blew your hair back. His most notable game came in defeat in Super Bowl XLIII when he sacked Ben Roethlisberger three times, tying Willie Davis and Reggie White for second most sacks in the game s history.1778. Manny Fernandez (1968-1975)Defensive LineMiami Dolphins [continue reading ]TweetKony Ealy and Grady Jarrett since matched the feat. The record still belongs to L.C. Greenwood, who sacked Roger Staubach four times in Super Bowl X. [ ]Jackson State is located in Jackson, Mississippi, about halfway in between New Orleans and Memphis. The JSU Tigers have four Hall of Famers in Walter Payton, Jackie Slater, Lem Barney, and Robert Brazile.  Jackson State is also home to two of the best receivers not in the Hall of Fame: Jaguars great Jimmy Smith and Harold Jackson, who comfortably led all players in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns in the 1970s.  Coy Bacon, Wilbert Montgomery, and Leon Gray all went to Jackson State, among other stars, helping the school provide more AV in the pros than any other HBCU. There have been 101 players from JSU drafted by the NFL.A fourth school, Southern University in Baton Rouge, LA, is in its own tier as the 4th most prominent HBCU when it comes to NFL success.  There have been 78 Jaguars drafted and only one Isiah Robertson was selected in the first round.  So it hasn t had quite the success as Grambling, Tennessee State, or Jackson State at putting players into the pros. But the Jaguars sure have been successful once they got there (including Robertson, a fringe HOF candidate). Two Hall of Fame cornerbacks, Mel Blount and Aeneas Williams, were drafted in the third round, while WR Harold Carmichael was a 7th round pick.  And one of the best defensive ends during his prime was Broncos legend Rich Tomstone Jackson, was also a Jaguar. [continue reading ]TweetFor purposes of today s post, I am defining major college football programs in the South and Texas as the schools in three major conferences. These 30 schools represent most of the major college football programs in the South, Southeast, and Texas. However, I am going to exclude the northern schools from these conferences, for reasons that will soon become clear.The three conferences are the SEC, the ACC, and the former Southwestern Conference (the SWC). The 30 schools are:13 of the 14 current SEC schools, excluding Missouri.1The Texas schools that were in the SWC at the time: that includes these 6 schools:3 Texas, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Rice, and SMU.So why am I excluding the northern schools? They integrated much earlier than the southern schools. Most of the schools in this group of 30 didn t really integrate until the very late 60s or early 70s. Meanwhile, Jim Brown was playing at Syracuse in 1954 and Bobby Grier was famously playing at Pittsburgh at the same time. I also chose to use the old SWC rather than the current Big 12, because that is more reflective of those times. Schools like Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri were in the old Big 8, but those schools were much better at integration than the old SWC. Also, other schools in Texas, like Houston, were a few years ahead of the Texas schools in the SWC. We will deal with the non-SWC Texas schools at the end.So now we have our group of 30 schools that were the major college programs in the south or Texas over the last 60 years. And, thanks to yesterday s work, we have a history of players drafted from HBCUs. So let s compare: the graph below shows the draft value used on players from these 30 southern schools in red compared to the draft value spent on players from HBCUs in blue. You can see a clear dip in talent in the southern/Texas schools in the late 60s, and it s directly related to segregation: [continue reading ]TweetThese include all 10 schools in the SEC as of the late 1960s, plus three schools that would otherwise qualify anyway: South Carolina (then in ACC), Texas A M (then in the SWC), and Arkansas (then in the SWC). [ ]These include all 8 ACC schools at the time other than Maryland (now in the Big 10 and a northern school) and South Carolina (included in this analysis by virtue of being in the SEC now), plus Louisville (then MVC) and the four schools that were independent at the time Florida State, Virginia Tech, Miami, and Georgia Tech. [ ]In addition to Texas A M and Arkansas, which are of course now in the SEC. [ ]The first NFL Draft took place in 1936. But for players attending Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs), it wasn t until 1950 that the draft would hold any significance. Later, for a short window in the late 60s and early 70s, players from these tiny HBCUs dominated the draft. And finally, with a few notable exceptions, the prominence of HBCU players in the NFL Draft all but disappeared. Today, a look at NFL draft results and how players from HBCUs were valued in each draft. However, to start the story in the 1950s would be woefully inadequate. [continue reading ]TweetThe biggest signing in AFL history.From 1961 to 1966, the upstart American Football League and NFL competed off the field in a battle for the top players from college football. The rival leagues would hold two separate drafts in later years, on the same day and then compete to sign these players. Sometimes, the two leagues would battle over stars: North Carolina State s Roman Gabriel was drafted second overall by the NFL s Rams and first overall by the AFL s Raiders in 1962. A year before, Tulane s Tommy Mason was the 1st pick in the NFL Draft (Vikings) and the 2nd pick in the AFL Draft (Patriots). There were a number of future Hall of Famers like Mike Ditka, Merlin Olsen, and Gale Sayers who were highly coveted by both leagues. In other cases, though, prospect evaluation 50 years later is a bit more complicated.Both leagues placed heavy emphasis placed on both signability, which could lead to drastically different draft outcomes for players. While Oregon State QB Terry Baker was drafted first overall by the NFL s Rams, the AFL didn t even feign interest in the Heisman Trophy winner, letting him fall to the 12th round of the 63 AFL Draft. And top-5 NFL picks like Tucker Frederickson, Bob Brown, Ken Willard, and Randy Beisler weren t even drafted in the AFL! This went the other way, too: Memphis lineman Harry Schuh was the 3rd overall pick in the AFL Draft, but no team in the NFL Draft wasted a pick on him. Buck Buchanan was the first pick in the AFL Draft in 63, but was only a very late pick in the NFL Draft (more on him in a minute). The gamesmanship increased prior to the 1964 draft season, as the NFL instituted Operation Babysitter, designed to babysit (or kidnap) draft prospects during critical windows so AFL teams couldn t contact them! Oh, and every once in awhile, neither league would win in a fight over a top player.1 [continue reading ]TweetI bring you the story of famed guard/defensive lineman Tom Brown from Minnesota who led the Gophers to a national championship in 1960, finished as the runner up in the Heisman Trophy, and won both the Outland Trophy and the Big 10 Player of the Year award. Brown was drafted by the AFL in the first round after having been drafted by the NFL in the 9th round two years earlier . and ultimately chose to go play up north in the CFL. Mack s teammate, black quarterback and Rose Bowl hero Sandy Stephens, was a second round pick of the Browns and first round pick of the Jets. However, neither the NFL nor AFL wanted him to play quarterback, so he, too, went to Canada to play in the CFL. [ ]Time for part seven of The Grand List, or: the top one thousand players ever, or whatever. We are slowly traveling down this road, and today we break into the 700s. Specifically, we ll look at players 809-780. It should be the most quarterback-heavy entry into the series to date, including a trio of would-be saviors who bore the weight both of their teams and of unrealistic expectations. I hope you enjoy. If not, as always, send complaints to DeleteSansReading@gmail.com.Previous articles in the seriesThe Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.Let s get down to business.The List, Continued809. Joe Horn (1995-2007)Wide ReceiverNew Orleans Saints, Kansas City Chiefs, Atlanta Falcons, Memphis Mad DogsBefore he drew the ire of pearl-clutching ninnies around the nation for pretending to make a phone call, Horn was a struggling underemployed former community college player looking for a break. He did drills based on a Jerry Rice VHS tutorial and worked himself into a gig in the CFL. With an excellent debut season as a pro, the NFL took notice. Horn saw limited action on offense continued to put in work on special teams to maintain his roster spot. A move to the Big Easy saw his efforts pay off as he began a half decade run in which he averaged 1290 yards and 9 touchdowns per 16 games, including three seasons over 1300 yards. He got a late start and didn t earn a starting role until he was 28, but once he got the opportunity, he turned it into stardom. [continue reading ]TweetDrafts in the early 1970s were long by modern standards, with 442 players selected. If the 1971 NFL Draft is remembered for anything, it s for having three quarterbacks go with the first three picks in the draft: Stanford s Jim Plunkett, Mississippi s Archie Manning, and Santa Clara s Dan Pastorini. But more than any other draft in NFL history, the 1971 NFL Draft represented the changing landscape of college football and the country.Fifty years ago, many Division 1 schools still operated independent from any conference affiliation. There were 56 players selected from such schools in the 71 Draft, including 10 from Houston, 6 from Pittsburgh, 5 from Notre Dame, and 4 each from Penn State, Tulane, and Boston College.The Big 10 led all conferences with 52 players drafted. That number just to 60 players drafted from schools in the 2020 version of the Big 10, which you reach by including the players drafted from Nebraska and Penn State.The SEC had 31 players drafted in 1971, and 46 players if you include existing SEC schools not in the conference fifty years ago.1The Pac-8 (the predecessor to the current Pac-12) had 29 players drafted, and 44 players chosen from schools now in the Pac-12.2The Big 8 conference (the predecessor to the current Big 12) had 34 players drafted; the Southwest Conference (another predecessor to the Big 12) had 23 draftees that year, with players from Texas and Arkansas making up the majority of that group. There were 35 players drafted in 1971 among modern Big 12 schools.The ACC had only 11 players drafted, although there were 26 players drafted from schools currently in the ACC. [continue reading ]TweetThose schools: South Carolina, Missouri, Texas A M, and Arkansas. [ ]Adding Colorado, Arizona and Arizona State, and Utah. [ ]If it looks like part seven of the list and smells like part seven of the list, by golly, it is part seven of the list. Today s installment of The Grand List, or: the top 1000 players ever (or something like that) covers players 850-810. That s 41 players, because why does it have to make sense. I hope you like special teams.1Previous articles in the seriesThe Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.Alright then, let s get to it.The List, Continued850. Ed Danowski (1934-1941)QuarterbackNew York GiantsDanowski only had 1100 action plays in his NFL career, but he made them count. He doesn t even qualify for leaderboards, but his +1552 total adjusted yards above average (VAL) would rank 74th in history if he did. Probably the most accurate passer of his era outside of Baugh, he led the league in completion rate twice and had a three-year run in which his Cmp%+ figures were 183, 200, and 199.2 His Giants made it to four title games, winning two of them. In his first championship appearance, Danowski had a pick on defense and both a passing and rushing touchdown on offense as the Giants humbled the undefeated Bears. When New York beat Green Bay, Danowski threw for two scores and a 122.7 passer rating. [continue reading ]TweetAlso, major thanks to Mr. Tom Nawrocki for writing some beautiful words about players 846, 831, 829, and 813. [ ]See the explanation of Cmp%+ under the heading Explanation of the Advanced Passing table, if you aren t familiar. [ ]Yesterday, I looked at the draft capital allocated to each position in the 2020 NFL Draft. I noted that significantly more draft capital was used on offensive tackles than on guards or centers, which is even more striking when you realize that there were 2 OTs and 3 interior offensive linemen on every play.So how does the 2020 NFL Draft compared historically to other drafts, in terms of allocating draft capital to tackles versus interior linemen? For purposes of this post, I reduced draft capital allocated to guards and centers by one third in every draft class, to make for a more apples to apples comparison. In that case, most years, significantly more draft capital is allocated to tackles, and that number is on the rise. The last time more draft capital on a per position basis was used on interior offensive linemen than offensive tackles was in 1990. That year, tackle Richmond Webb was the first lineman drafted, but the next five OL were all guards or centers: Bern Brostek, Keith Sims, Tim Grunhard, Leo Goeas, and Glenn Parker. The most OT-heavy draft relative to guards and centers was in 2008, when Jake Long went first overall, and six other offensive tackles went in the first round: Ryan Clady, Chris Williams, Gosder Cherilus, Jeff Otah, Sam Baker, and Duane Brown. The only guard drafted in the first round was Branden Albert, who played guard in college and was drafted as such, and then played left tackle for his entire NFL career.The graph below shows the draft capital allocated to offensive tackles (in black) and interior offensive linemen (in red) in each year since 1967. Again, I have multiplied the draft capital allocated to guards and centers by two thirds to compare the positions more evenly. [continue reading ]TweetThe NFL Draft is a good way to measure how the league values particular positions. Last year, it was all about the defensive line: edge rushers and interior defenders dominated the draft, with over a quarter of all draft capital spent on these players. Two years ago, it seemed as though the running game was back in vogue: after quarterback, running back was perhaps the most highly valued position in the 18 Draft, and a lot of draft capital was used on non-pass rushing linebackers.Which positions did NFL teams focus on in the 2020 NFL Draft? We can use the Football Perspective Draft Value Chart to answer that question pretty easily for the first 224 picks (all picks after that have been excluded, since they have a draft value of zero). Prior to the 2020 Draft, we were told that this would be one of the most WR-heavy drafts in NFL history. That turned out to be accurate: a whopping 210.3 points of draft capital were used on wide receivers, the 8th-most of any draft since 1967 (the record is 224.9, set in 2000). There were a record eleven wide receivers were drafted in the first 50 picks, breaking the old mark in the modern era of ten, set in 1994.For defensive coordinators, they will get an influx of talent in the secondary. The graph below shows the amount of draft value used on each position in the 2020 NFL Draft. I split front seven players into interior defensive lineman (labeled as DI), edge rushers, and linebackers; there is going to be some overlap for certain players (as well as between CB/S, and guards and centers or tackles, and occasionally amongWR/RB/QB) but I did the best I could to pick one label for each player. [continue reading ]TweetThe 2020 Draft is now over, which means there are an endless number of places where you can read recaps, draft grades, and who are the winners and losers of the past three days. But there are no answers yet to how the 2020 draft prospects will turn out; on the other hand, we now have 5 years of data to analyze the 2015 Draft. So let s do that today.Sports Illustrated s draft experts Chris Burke Doug Farrar graded each team s draft five years ago, and I will be using that recap in this article. Burke and Farrar handed out 4 A grades including one to Minnesota and one to Jacksonville. With the benefit of hindsight, what do the numbers say? As it turns out, according to my methodology, the Vikings did indeed have the single best draft. Nice job, Chris and Doug!  Here s what Farrar wrote about the Vikings haul:Minnesota s primary needs were at cornerback and offensive tackle. It dealt with the first issue at pick No. 11 by taking Michigan State s Trae Waynes, a highly physical and aggressive press cornerback. He ll be a perfect bookend for Xavier Rhodes if he learns to deal with crossing routes and avoids a heap of penalty flags. Pitt right tackle T.J. Clemmings dropped to the fourth round due to medical concerns, but if the converted defensive lineman can stay healthy, he might be the best tackle out of this class in a couple years. Second-round linebacker Eric Kendricks should be able to start right away in the middle of Mike Zimmer s defense, while third-round pass-rusher Danielle Hunter from LSU is both freakishly athletic and raw like sushi. He ll need some time with a line coach, but there s a lot to like there. In addition, the Vikings got two much-needed targets for Teddy Bridgewater: Southern Illinois tight end MyCole Pruitt (one of my favorite small-school guys this year) and Maryland speed receiver Stefon Diggs, who can line up all over the place.Waynes, the team s first overall pick, was a disappointment: he was inconsistent during his time with the Vikings, and was only a full-time starter for the last 3.5 years. The team did not resign him, and he s now in Cincinnati.  Clemmings didn t quite turn out as planned, although he did start for 30 games for the team.  But for a team that didn t nail its first pick, the rest of the draft was superlative. Diggs, a 5th round pick, has been the best receiver in the Draft outside of perhaps Amari Cooper, who went 4th overall. Hunter has been one of the steals of draft, recording a 2015 class-high of 54.5 sacks.   And Kendricks has turned into one of the best linebackers in the league, earning first-team All-Pro nods in 2019.On the other hand, Jacksonville s draft hasn t quite been so good.The Jaguars are coming. Maybe not in 2015, maybe not in 2016, but soon. This draft without question kept this franchise s positive momentum, from a talent standpoint, rolling in the right direction. Jacksonville made one solid decision after another, right through Notre Dame tight end Ben Koyack in round 7.Opinions varied on this class s top pass rusher, but Dante Fowler was at or near the top of the list, and Gus Bradley can turn him into a star. Running back T.J. Yeldon and guard A.J. Cann should be starters by Week 1, as well. But the real gems here came in rounds 5 and 6, respectively: Florida State wide receiver Rashad Greene, a sharp route-runner and productive performer; and penetrating three-tech tackle Michael Bennett, a remarkable value at pick No. 180.The Jaguars caught some bad breaks with Fowler: he tore his ACL on the first day his first mini-camp, and never quite turned into the edge rusher the Jaguars were expecting. He was traded to the Rams in October 2018 for a 2019 late 3rd round pick (Quincy Williams) and a 2020 fifth rounder. He signed this offseason with the Falcons.  Yeldon was a bust: two years later, the Jaguars used the 4th overall pick on Leonard Fournette in part because of Yeldon s failures.  Cann has been a five-year starter, but is a below-average starting guard.  Greene caught 2 touchdowns in his Jaguars career, while had 0.5 sacks; both were not in the NFL in 2019.  The Jaguars got nothing more than warm bodies in rounds 4 through 7, and their high picks in rounds 1 and 2 were disappointing, leaving Cann the 67th overall pick as the highlight of a bad draft.Burke and Farrar handed out just 2 really bad grades; a C to the Bills and a C+ to the Colts.  Here s what Burke wrote about the Bills.The Bills started this draft at a disadvantage, having coughed up their first-round selection to add Sammy Watkins last year. They did well at No. 50 to add a borderline round 1 talent in cornerback Ronald Darby, but it s hard to guarantee any of their other picks will make an impact. Guard John Miller (No. 81) has the clearest shot. Buffalo is thin at guard and Miller, though limited overall, fits the mauler mold Rex Ryan favors. Sixth-round tight end Nick O Leary was productive at Florida State. Can he find any playing time with two players similar to him in style, Charles Clay and Chris Gragg, ahead of him on the depth chart?Instead of the detailed analysis, let s just say this: none of the Bills draftees were still on the team four years later, and Ryan was gone after 2016.Here was the Colts analysis:The Colts caught everyone off-guard at No. 29 with their selection of speedy wide receiver Phillip Dorsett. He is an exciting weapon and a home-run threat whenever he s on the field, but Indianapolis already had Andre Johnson, T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief locked in place at receiver. Sure, sticking to an approach of taking the best player available is generally advisable. The Colts, though, believe they are on the brink of a Super Bowl berth, and it s hard to argue the Dorsett pick got them closer than an upgrade on defense would have.Those defensive moves did follow. Cornerback D Joun Smith and defensive end Henry Anderson (both third-rounders) have starter qualities, and safety Clayton Geathers is a nice depth/special teams piece.Geathers wound up starting the most games for the Colts among this group, and he s currently a free agent.  Dorsett was utlimately flipped by Jacoby Brissett, which turned out to be a great trade, but he was disappointing in Indianapolis (although an aging Johnson was a reason to invest in wide receivers, not avoid the position).  Anderson turned out to be a solid player with the Jets, but this was one of the drafts that ultimately led to Ryan Grigson s termination.  Kudos to Burke and Farrar for nailing that both the Colts and Bills struggled in the 2015 Draft.On the other hand, the Seahawks were given a B- grade andPete Carroll and John Schneider have built up a lot of equity with great pick after great pick since they took over the Seahawks organization in 2010, but they tested a lot of that faith with the second-round selection of Michigan edge-rusher Frank Clark, a third- to fourth-round prospect in the minds of many before you throw in the domestic violence issue that got him kicked off the Wolverines last November. Clark had better be special on the field and perfect off it, because Carroll and Schneider are taking a huge risk here. The move to trade up for Kansas State receiver Tyler Lockett in the third round was better-received, and for good reason. He s an outstanding return man and the kind of speedster who can take the top off a defense—just what Seattle needs. Seattle also took three offensive linemen: San Diego State tackle Terry Poole (who projects as a guard), West Virginia s Mark Glowinski (who might kick inside to center) and Buffalo defensive tackle Kristjan Sokoli, who the Seahawks want to turn into a guard. The guy to watch in Seattle s draft is Towson cornerback Tye Smith, regarded by many as the best small-school pass defender in the 2015 class. He ll get a legitimate shot to crash into the Legion of Boom.Seattle entered the draft without a first round pick thanks to the Jimmy Graham trade, but Lockett and Clark were two of the steals of the 2015 Draft.  Clark had 32 sacks in his 2nd, 3rd, and 4th seasons, before being traded for a late 1st round pick in 2019 and the 64th pick in 2020; that s an excellent return for a player drafted with the 63rd pick. Lockett has been the third most valuable receiver in this draft so far, behind only Cooper and Diggs.  And on a yards per target basis a disfavored metric in these parts Lockett has been playing at a Hall of Fame level.  This was one draft grade that should have been much higher.I went through the 2015 Draft and calculated how much marginal AV was provided by each player in his first five seasons (Marginal AV being Approximate Value over 2 in each year).  Here is how each draftee fared, relative to their expected marginal AV from the draft value curve.This was a very good draft, with Kevin White being the only complete bust in the top ten (other than him and Fowler, the others all started at least for four seasons). Stefon Diggs, Marcus Peters, Danielle Hunter, and Eric Kendricks graded as the four players who most exceeded their draft slot, making this a remarkable draft for the Vikings.  The chart below shows each team, along with their SI Draft Grade, the total Marginal AV produced by the draft picks, and the AV over expectation (i.e., giving credit to teams that had less draft capital).  As you can see, the Vikings were the best team in the draft when it comes to AV over expectation, although the Bucs matched them (in addition to Jameis Winston with the first overall pick, Donovan Smith, Ali Marpet, and Kwon Alexander all turned into regular starters.Finally, here are the grades on each player in the draft, using PFR s Approximate Value.Five players from LSU and four players from Alabama were drafted in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft last night, the latest in a long line of draft dominance from two of the powerhouses of college football. In addition, another 6 players from the SEC had their names called during the first round: two from Georgia, two from Auburn, and one from both Florida and South Carolina. That gave the conference a record 15 players selected in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft.The previous record for players from one conference getting selected in first round of an NFL Draft was 12, set by the ACC in 2006 and matched by the SEC in both 2013 and 2017.1 For as long as I can remember and, assuredly, for longer than that SEC fans have boasted about the football talent within its conference. At times, the reputation has exceeded the results. But in recent years, there s no question that the draft has become dominated by the conference. How much more dominant is the SEC at the top of the NFL Draft relative to prior years? [continue reading ]TweetIf you wanted to be cheekyy, and I would expect nothing less out of you, the schools in the current SEC also had 13 players drafted in 2011 when there were 10 players from the SEC drafted in the first round, along with three others from Texas A M and Missouri, Big 12 schools that now play in the SEC. One could also play this game with the Big 10 and the 1963 NFL draft, when among the first 32 players were 9 players from Big 10 schools, plus four more from Penn State and Maryland. [ ]In the 1969 NFL Draft, 8 of the first 10 picks were used on offensive players. In total, 64% of all draft capital according to the Football Perspective Draft Value Chart was used on offensive players. Two years later, the first three picks were all used on quarterbacks; only 1 of the first 9, and 2 of the first 13 players selected, were on the defensive side of the ball.As recently as 1995, the first five picks were all used on offensive players, as were 8 of the first 10 picks. But more recently, NFL teams have been much more even in their draft day gifts to offensive and defensive coordinators.In 2016 and 2017, teams actually used significantly more draft capital on defense than on offense. This year, according to CBS, an almost perfect 50/50 split is expected. The graph below shows the percentage of actual draft capital allocated to offensive players each season, compared to the total amount allocated to both offensive and defensive players. [continue reading ]Tweet

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