Integral Market Psychology - Psychology | Markets | Jujitsu

Time 2020-10-31 20:04:14

Web Name: Integral Market Psychology - Psychology | Markets | Jujitsu

WebSite: http://andrewilardi.com

ID:100719

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Market,Integral,Psychology,

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For the powerful, crimes are those that others commit. Noam Chomsky spoke these words in the interview series Imperial Ambitions in 2005. Today, social media has given all of us the power to shame each other publicly, including climbers. Recent posts on social media, during the COVID-19 pandemic, chastise others for climbing unaware of their skill, contextual situation, and state mandate is, in my opinion, detrimental to climbing’s counter-culture heritage. In this counter-culture activity, climbers have yielded to the authority they once rebelled against. An ironic death when personal choice becomes a monument ready to be graffitied, protested destroyed by ones whose lives we once protected, as we sincerely spoke those ritual words, Climb on. Climbing became popularized in the 1950 s after WWII brought a lifestyle of security and lack of risk to American culture. With Yin there is always Yang. Climbing became the counter-culture risk taking activity that youths needed to exercise their adventurous spirits.  Squashed by an upbringing of frugality, excessive security and what would become, in some historians’ opinions, the beginning of consumerism.Do you believe those at the vanguard of what was to become a major hobby profession in the 20th 21st century were met with open arms? Do you think all their parents supported this dangerous risky activity for their children? Do you believe their friends said, Yea man, go climb that 100 ft wall with a rope tied around your waist, I heard leaders don t fall, you’re good. Do you believe the park services, not just in California at Yosemite, but across the United States didn t believe these crazy kids were a menace to the placid good ol American folk trying to enjoy the parks after the rancor of World War II? With any revolution, with any counter-culture movement you often find comradery with those few souls brave enough to walk uncharted territory together. How have you supported your fellow climbers during the last month in person and/or on social media?I believe we have a greater responsibility today to one another. To honor the heritage which created the activity we love. To pay tribute to the likes of Royal Robbins, Warren Harding, John Long, Lynn Hill and many others for their courage to defy the norm, by thinking for ourselves. Warren Harding Dean Caldwell s infamous ascent up the Dawn Wall drew enough concern that a rescue was initiated. Mr. Harding famously scribbled a note inside a tuna can that read, A rescue is unwarranted, unwanted and will not be accepted. Now that s the spirit! Is that the same spirit you witness on social media? I m not telling you to climb or not to climb. I m not encouraging you to engage in illegal or illicit activity. I am advocating that the next time you see a post, rather than dishonoring the heritage that allows you to engage in the climbing that you love, you state those ritual words, Climb on .Lines, so many of us choose them regularly without a thought. It feels so natural, almost instinctual. Why we would question it? As traders, we must create structure out of chaos. To create probabilities out of what appears to be impossibility. You ll never know how much lines shape your action until you commit to one, only to see another after the fact.The example is TSLA, but I would prefer to whelve into high waters more quickly. The procellus existence of man leaves him austere and vulnerable to the elements, his society, and even those he may deem his family friends. He is forced delineate, to draw what may be arbitrary distinctions to some greater God or Universe that finds it equally justified, perhaps even satisfying, to shine its sun equally upon the murderer rapist as it does the philanthropist good samaritan. I find no issue with the categorization I just created, the lines I have drawn between Evil Good. Though how did I draw them? Why did I draw them the way I did? Why do you?The lines touch us in every aspect. Whether you re a first-year Ida Rolf student learning that the body, through tensegrity, coordinates its complex procedures and structures its mountain of flesh on a single line not readily visible but undeniable in existence through the crown of the head straight down. The line touches us in our prejudice towards political parties. If we are not to vanquish the other side we may succumb to there rules, morality and lose what progress we have made. The line touches us in our friends, our family, our group, our country. One walking mound of flesh, regardless of race, color, or creed. The universe makes no distinction between who flourishes, who dies, and who gets to tell its history. But we do. Would the white English men have done better than the blacks in Africa if there geographical destinies had been switched? The line touches us for mating purposes. They are roughly logistical regressions, the answer is yes or no, 1 or 0. An untested formula used to predict your future happiness and ability to pass your genes on. Tall men only please. She better be hot. As though these lines prevail in an American society whose divorce rate is near 50%. History is a great comedian. Even the modern philosopher Ken Wilber has created 5 lines: level, lines, states, types, and quadrants. For sure his theory rules all the lines as is the point of most meta-theories. Even I am guilty of there creation. As the distinction between man the universe we live in seems to be mutually exclusive stoic. The line touches us in to many aspects to list. In TSLA the downward trend line was violated as a short position was accumulated, before falling again. The line history deemed most appropriate was not the one I used. Though I was firm set on believing I was correct without re-thinking, without checking back into the annals of history to see where my folly truly lie. So I ask you, where are your lines? Why have you drawn them there? What purpose benefit have they served in mitigating your risk and maximizing your growth in economics, in morals, in choices, and in character? This isn t meant to be political. It is meant to be informative about the great walls of the world.  Donald Trump stated that he planned to build a wall between the United States and Mexico. He like many other great leaders of the past may leave his mark on humanity for millennia, if successful.Huffingtonpost.com in October of 2016 did a post called 13 famous Walls around the world.  They only did photos though. Let s take a look at some.The Great Wall of China was built to protect the Chinese states against raids and invasions from the various nomadic groups of the Eurasian Steppe.  Though different pieces were constructed as early as 7th century BC under the rule of Qin Shi Huang between 220-206 BC the most famous part of the wall was built.  Among its purposes was defense and yes, border control.A less known but, still a great wall was the Walls of Ston.  Famously known as the European wall of China. Spanning more than 4.3 miles long it surrounded the city of Ston, which is now southern Croatia.  The city used this wall to protect itself and its Saltpans, which brought it great wealth.Another wall is the Israeli West Bank Barrier. A wall spanning more than 430 miles!  Israeli considers it a security barrier against terrorism, while Palestinians call it a racial segregation. Politics aside, this wall began construction in 2000 proving modern walls can be built and maintained.  This wall is still in existence today.Lastly, The Walls of Babylon. Constructed under Nebuchadnezzar II between 634-562 BC. This massive wall is truly wonder! Even the greek historian Herodotus claimed that Babylon surpasses in wonder any city known in the world.   According to Herodotus the wall was 56 miles long, 80 feet thick, and 320 feet high!  Large enough chariots could race around the top. Keep in mind a football field is 360 feet long! That is one hell of a wall!Walls for security, walls for border control, walls for defense.  Walls are truly a great accomplishment of man.  Even psychologically, we built walls to protect ourselves!  Consider the historic significance of these select few walls from history.  Now imagine, the United States, in all its glory being part of that Great Wall history.   A man once said, If we want to compete with China we need a wall bigger then China. Hoarding isn t just a problem for people anymore. I believe this pathology extends to companies as well.  It may even be at clinical levels given how much data they are acquiring but potentially not even using. That my friend, is hoarding.It is estimated that google has 10 exabytes of data that s 10 million terrabytes.  A common hard drive at home holds 5 terrabytes.  GOOGWalmart is estimated to process 2.5 petabytes of data an hour.  That s 360 petabytes a week or 360,000 terrabytes.  WMTEven the U.S. is believed to be storing up to a yottabyte of data with it s new NSA facility.  Which is 1,000,000,000,000 terrabytes.That is a lot of data.  The true sign of a good hoarder is whether they are unwilling to part with items they no longer use.  In my opinion, I doubt any of these tech companies would delete old user data, location statistics, or any data that could be potentially profitable someday.  That s the key word COULD.  I m no psychologist but I do believe these companies have a pathological relationship with their data. They are hoarding it.  It no news that google is now the largest buyer of magnetic tape.  Why? To save all the data! Magnetic tape is to slow to read so why keep it? Because they are hoarders. REAL traders all know how important slippage is.  You wanted to buy at 20.05 but got filled at 20.07.  Then you wanted to exit at 20.55 but got filled at 20.52.  The $0.02 on the went in and the $0.03 on the way out is what is referred to as slippage or skid. Total slippage $0.05When building mix models I always incorporate slippage but where has become an increasingly important question in my work.  It s similar to when people run a regression analysis on data that has no linear time factor built it.  You have no idea if Y preceded X or X preceded Y.  Running a linear regression doesn t make this so.Root Mean Squared Error or RMSE is one of many ways to compare regression models.  The formula is SQRT(mean((Observed_data- Predicted_Value)^2)).When building models I often have a maximum profit from the trigger point (trade entry).  Back to our example. If I bought in at $20.07 and the highest print on the chart that day was 20.77. Max Profit would be $0.70.  My question to answer is typically what features will allow me to predict that $0.70 with the least amount of error risk.SLIPPAGE MATTERS! BIG TIME! I ran a Monte Carlo. 10,000 iterations. Running the same model where slippage was not subtracted from max Profit and when it was.  These were the results.There are MANY interpretations of this.  I ll offer a few.RMSE is sensitive to large numbers creating the flaccid bi-nomial distribution in the bottom graph.  Large numbers potentially produced by small max profits and large spreads. IE CMG s spread is about $0.20 where could be Max Profit = 0.05.The top graph RMSE, max profit, is normally distributed in this model because individual stock differences for max profit are not enough to disrupt the distribution.  Which suggests that my ability to predict a stock is potentially easier.SPREADS MATTER! The difference between the two graphs is caused by individual stock characteristics in the spread.  Like, two people, no spreads are ever really the same.  The error for my prediction goes up as we account for individual differences.I think this illustrates something we experience every day in life. We have general predictions about what people will do in a given context (features) but everyone often does something unique which can not be accounted for.  I believe the bottom graph illustrates this.  It also illustrates why your real life trading profits may not reflect model performance if slippage is not included.  Because what happens. When I thought I was going to make $50.00 I only made $35.00 . Slippage! I ve been listening to a lot of Allan Watts lately.   He is largely accredited for bringing eastern philosophy into to western society in a highly digestible way.  What I want to focus on is knowing without knowing.As a trader we spend hours scanning charts, searching for the setups we know best, that we know have a high probability of reward.  Though if it was that simple we would just automate what we do and sit at the beach all day.  There is something more I believe.There is a feeling that occurs, a knowing.  You look at the chart and you know what it will do.  As if you have some sort of pre-cognition.  What is this? As if the stars have aligned and you somehow intuitively know.  When your brain kicks in you may second guess yourself, change your mind, look for evidence to verify this feeling but you know what you know.The mind, however wants to make up a story about why you feel this way.  It is pointless.  Just as fire does not burn itself, nor does a knife cut itself.  You will not know what you know by logic, thought, or evidence.  You just know How often do you feel this as a trader?  What do you do when you have this feeling?  Do you journal it? Do you always take the trade?  Keeping track of these moments is critical in my success because there is a high order knowing I believe that I do not have access too directly.  Perhaps over time with enough sample, I can begin to understand what I do know or at least plug it into a deep learning model

TAGS:Market Integral Psychology 

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